Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... Gapping down Wednesday to fresh lows testing 2042.00 was quickly retraced 11 points up to 2053.25, and was still 4 points below Tuesday's close. Trending back down found fresh lows at 2039.00 during the afternoon bias environment. Choppy, flat-to-higher ranging retraced it to attack 2048.00, overlapping Friday's lows into the close. Overnight action's new info... The Globex session immediately began contrasting itself to Wednesday afternoon's choppy, flat-to-higher ranging. Trending up through 2048.00 extended to attack 2057.00 ahead of Europe's opens. A reaction down to 2051.50 was recovered by a surge up to 2060.00. The surge's complete retracement down to 2051.00 is trying to recover, now testing 2055.00. If, then... Tuesday's break putting into play 2030.00-2035.00 was not invalidated, but it wasn't very productive. Hold-short was narrowly avoided as there remained vulnerability to a bigger bounce overnight. But actually reversing the trend would require gapping up to and through 2057.00-2059.50. In fact, the overnight high fully tested this resistance. Its reaction down to 2051.00 is both steep and deep, but it has plenty of time to recover. Regardless of gapping up and regardless of the overnight highs, not triggering bias-up would maintain the ongoing downtrend. First Trade... Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2052.50 would be likely to trigger the 2049.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2057.00 would be likely also to exceed the 2055.00 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open under 2048.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Bias-up target met, Bias-up signal rejected. Gapping up above at least 2057.00 would have begun rejecting the downtrend, but the open was at only 2051.00. An aggressive post-open surge would have kept alive the rejection potential, but it dipped to test yesterday afternoon's 2048.00 "lower prior highs." None of which qualified as resuming the decline's momentum. Only as not exploiting the opportunity to invalidate the decline altogether. So, bouncing anyway would be considered only temporary backing-and-filling, refueling sellers. The 2049.75 bias-up signal triggered, and its 2055.50 bias-up target was met to within 3 ticks. Quickly. So quickly, that there was time for violating a bounce limit, triggering a sell signal, and retracing the bias-up signal through 10:30 back down to 2048.00.

So, this morning's bias environment is Bias-up Rejected. There is no unfinished business above. There is also no requirement to trend down -- while the burden of proof is on buyers, the downtrend remains intact.

2048.00's retest was not bullish. Breaking back under it would target 2046.00 and 2042.00. So long as 2048.00 support isn't broken, the balance of the morning could back-and-fill again.

THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2069.50 2053.25 ...would target  2065.50 2059.50 Bias-down: under  2053.00  2047.00 ...would target 2048.25  2042.00 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Rejection attempt fails, decline resumes. Invalidating this morning's bias-up had put into play tests of 2046.00 and 2042.00. The bias environment exit was firming from a test of 2046.00 when a Fed speaker's comments made headlines, and triggered a spike up. There was room to 2052.50 before that might actually resume the overnight rally effort. But 2052.50 was only touched and not triggered before reversing back down.

A sell signal triggered, as did this afternoon's 2047.00 bias-down signal, and the 2042.00 bias-down target has been probed down to 2039.50.

Persistently oversold 3-minute RSI at the low suggests a bounce would be limited and fail. So does the low having stopped optimistically 3 ticks short of touching yesterday's low. Bouncing anyway has room up to 2044.00-2045.00 before suggesting a more substantial recovery underway. Otherwise, the trend remains down, next targeting 2034.75.

Had Wednesday night's rally to 2059.50 been done intraday, then all available buying pressure would have been expended without gaining traction for the effort. Pre-open action was attacking the morning's 2055.50 bias-up target, and exceeding it post-open could have renewed the bias-up signal. Either of those setups could have marginalized sellers. Neither of which prevents recovering from lower lows. But both suggest that lower lows are still coming. Gapping up Friday above Thursday's highs, if not also its pre-open highs -- similar to Thursday -- could still reject the decline. Otherwise, trending down into and also possibly out of the weekend is likely. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2056.75 2050.75 ...would target  2062.25  2056.25 Bias-down: under  2047.00  2041.00 ...would target 2040.75  2034.75 Signal status: NO-BIAS INVALIDATED, TESTED BOTH BIAS-DOWN PARAMETERS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.