Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... Tuesday morning's 10-point rally to 2118.00 was doomed to failure for having originated after Monday's rally gained no traction for its efforts. The second consecutive close at or under 2110.75 prevented putting into play higher objectives than 2116.00-2119.00, which held its test. The overnight "new Globex trend extreme" and morning's bias-up target also held their tests. Overnight action's new info... Tuesday afternoon's reaction down extended until probing more than 1 point back under Monday's 2108.00 close, touching what is this morning's 2106.50 bias-down signal. Firming since then has recovered to attack 2114.00. If, then... All outstanding objectives are met, buying pressure is being satisfied as quickly as its targets are triggered, and no higher targets are being put into play. But sellers haven't yet retaken control, perhaps the one thing the rally has left going for it. Still, reasserting itself too early would create the same trap as yesterday, since the rally once again failed to gain traction for its efforts. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2111.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2114.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2116.00 would be likely to trigger bias-up.

Open's surge finds more resistance at prior high. The open's surge all but confirmed that the two hours of pre-open consolidation were designed to conserve energy for trying to resume the rally. The minimum objective of retesting yesterday's 2118.00 high was fulfilled, to within 1 tick of its room for noise up to 2119.00. Then a sharp reaction down to 2112.00 all but confirmed the high's retest was intended to seal a top. The 2114.75 bias-up signal's test ultimately held after invoking the grace period, but it's being retested now. Back above 2116.25 could probe fresh highs, even testing this morning's 2120.25 bias-up target.

Resuming the rally today is no more likely than it was yesterday -- for the same reasons, and more. Meanwhile, attempts to extend the rally are no less likely either, as topping forms. Wreversal Wednesday's template only  requires that the afternoon makes obvious its rejection of the morning's trending.

Closing today above 2119.00 would be credible for extending the rally, regardless of the topping potential. And probably steeply, needing to become detached quickly from that topping potential.

WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2118.75 2117.50 ...would target  2123.75  2122.50 Bias-down: under  2113.00  2111.75 ...would target 2108.00  2106.75 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Now the upside is being weighed down. Rallying this morning was already doomed to failure for being premature, since yesterday's rally had gained no traction for its effort. Attacking 2119.00 did retrace entirely back down to yesterday's 2111.25 futures close. But no lower. Meanwhile, this morning's no-bias signal was not invalidated. The offsetting test of its 2106.50 bias-down signal has become "unfinished business below." This is extra ballast, on a leaking helium balloon. Bouncing since exiting the bias environment has tested this afternoon's 2117.50 bias-up signal. It wasn't triggered, but it could be probed and still be vulnerable to reversing down this afternoon... like this morning.

The rally had its best opportunity to extend upon exiting Wednesday afternoon's bias environment. But trending up to a fresh session high at 2119.75 was retraced into the final hour's entry. Its reaction down held 2116.50, but the balance of the session only ranged choppily sideways. Another missed opportunity to extend the rally was not to close above 2119.00. And not for lack of trying -- or, at least, lack of proximity. Bouncing from the 2116.50 dip up to 2119.00 only reacted back down. Closing above 2119.00 would have started signaling resistance was deteriorating. Meanwhile, "unfinished business below" was left outstanding from the morning at 2106.50. But if still not resolving down Thursday morning, the rally becomes more likely to extend higher up to 2125.25. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2121.50 2111.00 ...would target  2126.50  2116.00 Bias-down: under  2113.50  2103.00 ...would target 2107.25 2097.75 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.