Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... Despite Sunday night surging 10 points to new highs attacking 2265.00, Monday's open back under Friday's highs 2254.25 had isolated the new highs to the overnight session. A post-open surge to 2259.00 was retraced in time to somewhat similarly isolate it. After extending down to test 2247.00 during the noon hour, the balance of the session hovered 1 point higher in negative territory. Overnight action's new info... A quick dip back down to Monday afternoon's 2247.00 lows was recovered back up to the afternoon's highs. Its resistance began melting away ahead of Europe's opens, but that's when it disappeared altogether. Now yesterday's post-open surge has been retraced to within 1 point at 2258.00. If, then... An observation we've discussed here for a couple of months is that the market seems very willing to embrace getting past the long-anticipated rate hike. Think in terms of ripping off the band-aid, or meeting future in-laws. I've noted this whenever strong economic reports have at least temporarily triggered a price surge that previously would have triggered selling. Well, tomorrow afternoon's FOMC policy statement brings an opportunity to get the event behind us. ...Regardless of the knee-jerk reaction, pessimism should at some point be expressed by selling. Crouching defensively at some point ahead of the news would be appropriate, too. Yesterday's dip was too modest to qualify as pessimism. As noted, Monday's patient pessimism and ineffectual optimism were only potentially bearish from a contrarian perspective, and not yet outright bearish. ...So, why the overnight bounce? Consider its source. The optimism seems more inspired by the relative favor bestowed by a domestic rate hike. Will Tuesday's intraday crowd buy into that sentiment and continue marching higher post-open with a stiff upper-lip? Their reward could be a retest of Sunday night's 2265.00 high, and also to neutralize the "unfinished business above" of an eventual new trend high close. That would be a trap, to remove upside attractions when they'll be needed most. Reversing back down this morning could still be part of a multi-session pullback, with likely objectives of 2215.00 and probably also 2205.00. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2259.00 would be likely to trigger the 2256.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2253.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Probing above Sunday night's high. The opening bar touched yesterday morning's 2259.00 high and extended quickly through it. Maintaining its recovery through 9:45 made the bias-up signal likely to trigger. Never mind that, as its 2261.25 bias-up target has been exceeded. And exceeding the bias-up target through 10:15 puts into play the next higher target. Never mind that, too, as that was at least 2266.50, which was tested already up to 2267.75. A symmetrical triangle formed at the high. The pattern often breaks falsely in one direction, before reversing more substantially in the opposite direction. Its first break, whether or not temporary, was triggered under 2264.00 and has fulfilled its 2260.50 minimum objective. Probing under it has so far still overlapped it, and not broken lower. Back above 2264.00 would signal fresh highs in-play. Retesting Sunday night's high made 2270.00 likely to be tested, too. And that would be too shallow to qualify as a "more substantial reversal in the opposite direction." But the open's high doesn't require a retest. And anxiousness ahead of tomorrow afternoon's FOMC policy statement is eerily absent, as buyers throw everything AND the kitchen sink into the rally. Exiting the bias environment at 11:30 back under 2259.00 wouldn't itself be a sell signal, but it would undermine the upside momentum  

TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2271.75 2266.50 ...would target  2277.00  2272.00 Bias-down: under  2265.50  2260.50 ...would target 2258.75  2253.50 Signal status: waiting for trigger FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

And higher. The open's surge up to 2267.75 had formed a symmetrical triangle, a pattern that tends often to break falsely in one direction before reversing more substantially in the opposite direction. Its minimum target at 2260.50 was tested down to 2259.50, and then price started reversing back up. A buy signal that triggered above 2264.00 has only now violated a pullback limit after touching 2273.00. Overbought RSIs at the high require its retest. But nothing higher is required. Ever. The triangle's reversal has been more substantial than its false break. Retesting Sunday night's high was likely to visit 2270.00. And this afternoon's 2272.00 bias-up target was met, while testing it too late to renew the bias-up signal. A reaction down to 2269.00. could extend to 2266.50 and not yet begin to damage the chart's uptrend.Greeting tomorrow's FOMC news at this point in the pattern would be strength. Having probed fresh highs ahead of the news, today's close must be back under 2266.00 to at least suggest the upside momentum is lapsing.

Closing within proximity of Tuesday afternoon's 2273.00 high suggests that it will be retested,regardless of whether it was accompanied only by 1-minute RSI being overbought. Trending ahead of an FOMC statement would be unusual. But, then, so would seven days of rallying relentlessly ahead of the event. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2276.00 2270.75 ...would target  2281.50  2276.50 Bias-down: under  2269.00  2264.00 ...would target 2263.25  2258.00 Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTING BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.