Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference. NEW! Market Tour transcript included at the end of this post...

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... How much optimism was expressed Wednesday? Its 39-point rally up to 2401.00 extended higher through all but one intraday timing window. Even the noon hour, often range bound, began with a 6-point surge. That's where signs of a slowdown began, as the surge devolved into backing-and-filling. The afternoon bias environment finally produced a late surge, which also led to backing-and-filling. But that was retraced back down to the noon hour surge's 2392.75 origin. Overnight action's new info... Wednesday's late retracement has extended down gradually, but relentlessly nonetheless. Support at this morning's 2389.25 bias-down signal is being attacked to within 1 tick. If, then... Wednesday's late break originated too late and was too shallow to reverse the trend down. Anyway, Wednesday's rally was too productive not to be probed -- to at least 2405.50 and eventually 2418.00 -- before the trend can reverse down. That new high could come today so long as an overnight or morning pullback is limited to 2387.25. Breaking under 2387.25 through any relevant timing window would open the door to a more substantial interim decline before eventually probing above Wednesday's high. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2387.25 would be likely to trigger the 2389.25 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2393.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down. Phonetic dictation... [NEW! Unreviewed voice-to-text real-time dictation of the Market Tour recording. Again, not reviewed or edited in any way, which can be equally confusing and humorous.] good morning and welcome it is Thursday Thursday morning market tour ready we've got to huge day yesterday just a nice overnight uptrend this was the only unfinished business about bad care 2372 25 and then a likelihood of room for noise above that really the room for noise was not even get off of 7225 or really 2370 s nucla beckstrand extreme that have been outstanding as well their outstanding before the overnight rally that had room for noise as well that's 72 74 this is after Tuesday's dip Tuesday's singular intraday to climb that for once wasn't largely recovered intraday and instead left but I live in a vacuum back to unchanged lot of stuff that was in play or at least available to resume the rally and not necessarily to any great degree which that was a great degree not necessarily to any great degree to get to 7274 but the point is just knowing the direction was not down the direction remainder no matter how close it was getting too big resistance can you can see how that resistance was influential needed a running correction that's good and label that again needed a running correction to get through it so we definitely had a an opportunity or the really had an opportunity to extend itself which it greatly leveraged thanks to news thanks to the short squeeze a turd inspired and I say all this little light on but still creating it she's not in the same way as available to that was never put in there to make some assumptions about how it intends to resolve it that's been put into play are limitedLubbock's friend extreme inquiring we just entered a the longest 2395 so long as we got down under 2395 yesterday's Cash cash and closing equivalent then at least there will be that hard and fast charge structural Point outstanding but there is no calculable objective that requires a retest as there were with a head of yesterday's session even its overnight session today had better create that or we're getting really close if not necessarily in price as you can see we were pretty close as of last week's rally or I'm sorry it last week's consolidation close to what would have been a near-term pick that this Market this really goes out in a surge that fails pretty quickly if it can't leave unfinished business above but that fails pretty quickly so we're not any different than markets not any different than that it may look different because of the price but that's not the relevant point the amount of time available to a surge to be productive whether it's for a 10-point surgeon fails or a 50-point swords that fails there's only limited amount of time at the market can keep up the pretense weather the pretense is that stretch of the pretenses consolidating ahead of it so this is going to have to unfold pretty quickly another word what I'm looking for what I have what we're looking for has actually was a limited pull back actually there was room and still his room down at 8725 88 25 that's not mean that the pullback must take full advantage of it the BIOS down signal itself is 8925 that's been attacked here to within a tick but really a pull back then to 8725 88 25 should be the maximum amount of weakness before recovering to retest yesterday's has the character of USA's have that template says so long as the pullback is so limited that is to this calculation 8725 88 25 today should probe yesterday's high so that gap down from 9595 isn't the resistance resistance but it's not the resistance gapping down testing support having that vacuum back to the Gap at yesterday's clothes should then help to slingshot backup retest yesterday's has the ejective of resizing 24 of 550 and then having potential after we testing as a size 2 extended 2418 regardless that needs to play out start playing out quickly if there's a new trend I closed on Friday tomorrow course that's going to buy it sometime as well but we do expect all this quickly if the open can't hold 8725 oriely Firestone his trigger that's one thing but if any relevant I'm in window can't hold 8725 then it'll just be a deeper pulled back still at corrective fullback nothing about yesterday's session says that that's an ultimate pick alright any questions let me know that she came right back up to its resistance and avoided a close avoided a closed under 7665 didn't avoid testing it and testing it pretty substantially early yesterday but ultimately recovered it in today that's still the cell signal especially so long as especially so long as 7685 isn't recovered the and with this kind of a break lower that's the one chance it'll getshe's been holding up like a champ trying to avoid what has happened elsewhere among currency the pound broke lower being unable to capitalize on this magical triangle having develop so far into the Apex ultimately was only able to muster up all spray Tire and now trending for their down today the Looney trending down break out confirmation fulfillment of already have that third load of clothes if we can see her Monday to be the break out which is not optimal so the optimal bottom of the Looney if it's anywhere soon need to be formal or close and then the euro trying to repeat once again gap down and covered in turd a gap down recovering today gap down to cover today notice something different yesterday's recovery intraday from the gap down didn't close positive and certainly a function of being such a substantial not to mention the Gap downs and Recovery durable so still headed to 104 70 on the euro getting closer gold the problem with gold yesterday wasn't the gap down to get down health critical support or touch critical support is that it then rallied to neutralize its best friend this attraction back to Tuesday's close it did that before it did that at the last one week earlier gap down and then rallied to neutralize your traction so I haven't resolved and that way it it did actually then correct 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} numbers in the rally today or overnight it is correcting again or at least not even correcting it surpassed the 61.84 is testing the 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} retracement right now since then has not immediately extended high or we don't expect the same exact resolution twice in a row not after the first ones been productive already two different sponsorship so there should be different character so we don't expect the same resolution 761 .8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} retracement is being tested instead of immediately resuming the rally or at least a 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} retracement is only being tested overnight if that can be recovered before the open door through the morning I think there be enough difference instead of closing at the 61.8 it we can give her the benefit of the doubt for resuming the rally but otherwise the confirmation that momentum is reversing down more substantially would be too close on the yesterday's well actually under 12:38 will know a lot more at the open meanwhile May silver was a pretty big performer yesterday relatively speaking of that if it had been performing the last couple days similar to Gold it would have been 1822 a couple days ago and then 18 yesterday and clearly it just turned back into positive way but it's not participating overnight so maybe use as a guide silver holding support or not it's unlikely to that gold will disappear or Crater if silver is holding support Long Pond close on 151 11 a second consecutive close on 151 11 doesn't even have to be a little close would confirm it rain change in this particular pattern that's the that's where the battle is today including stay in the Range Rover Maine rangement on forever it's been weeks since the first indicating that this is not a tradable pattern or at least this is not a not going to be offering any solid evidence of trending from within this range it's going to have to get out of this range in the interim there's been a lot of testing chipping away at support resistance that's not to say that support and resistance brakes are the only indications of trending there are sequences that can dothey just haven't been any sequences within this range we may be getting close to one with yesterday's actually with the last couple of days recovery recovery and that Tuesday recovered from the gap down recovery in that yesterday kept up regardless of its finish because that hasn't that to date sequence hasn't been exploited or if it's not exploited by then closing above Wednesdays High instead closing under Tuesday's low we can start the sellers everybody for the day and already there is there is a 5358 $53.58 trigger that's not really intraday that's closing under 5358 it's an influential level closing under it and for confirmation sick since it was already tested on Tuesday to 5315 5320 closing hundred 5320 is well would be our first in a long time high confidence signal in this case the cell signal in the natural gas up to 286 287 while still having unfinished business below that is a requirement we test last Tuesday's overnight lows is stretching that rubber band even more so with the eia report coming up this morning alright long apologize for that any questions please post them to the chart room and I will see you before the over 9:15 thanks for being here good luck today

But potential for a rogue lower low. Bouncing off the 2390.50 low up to 2394.25 greeted the open at 2393.00. Immediately, a spike down attacked the overnight low. After briefly pausing, another spike down probed a fresh low at 2387.75. That's within the 2387.25-2388.25 pullback potential that was put into play yesterday afternoon. Testing it wasn't required, but its test is required to hold through a relevant timing window to maintain a near-term objective for fresh highs. A fresh low has probed the 2387.25-2388.25 range's lower-end by 1 tick. Meanwhile, the 2389.25 bias-down signal triggered.

Testing the 2384.25 bias-down target would necessarily probe under the 2387.25-2388.25 pullback limit. That won't be any more bearish, so long as the bias environment exit is back above 2387.25, preferably above it, and above 2389.25.

Alternatively, bias-down could be invalidated. It's too late to simply recover the signal through 10:30. But exiting the bias environment at 11:30-noon above the 2391.25 post-open high would suffice -- so long as a print under the 2387.00 pre-10:15 low is avoided.

A deeper pullback could still recover, and likely would. So could taking longer to fulfill the bias-down target. One or the other would be likely if neither scenario described above has formed by noon.

THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2391.00 2390.00 ...would target  2396.50  2395.75 Bias-down: under  2384.00  2383.25 ...would target  2377.00  2376.00 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Extended drop is countering yesterday's rally. Triggering this morning's 2389.25 bias-down signal targeted 2384.25. It was tested down to 2382.50 as the bias environment began lapsing. So, the bias environment did not begin lapsing back above 2387.25-2388.25, which would have isolated the drop as being weak-handed. No matter. Recovering the morning's 2389.25 bias-down signal by noon would have isolated the drop, too. Nope. Bouncing into noon only attacked 2387.25, more than 2 points too low.

Each timing window that fails to recover a relevant level must recover a higher relevant level to signal stronger hands are buying. To signal strong hands are buying, and also that no lower objectives won't be met.

The next lower objectives are "lower prior highs" at 2375.00, and the prior upside objective at 2372.25-2373.75. Deeper dips might still be avoidable by recovering the 2390.00 bias-up signal at the bias environment exit.

Potential for a pullback limited to 2387.25-2388.25 had failed to hold this morning, when the 2389.25 bias-down signal put into play 2384.25. Potential to isolate the excess dip also failed, when the bias environment was exited under 2387.25-2388.25. Closing above 2387.25-2388.25 would have sufficed. That was difficult for a drop into Thursday's close that had extended down to 2378.00 from Wednesday's 2395.00 close. Gapping up above its 2391.25 prior high Friday -- not just to it, but through it -- might also suffice. Otherwise, the next lower objective in-play is 2372.25-2373.75, and then potentially "lower prior highs" at 2368.50 or 2364.00. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2386.25 2385.50 ...would target  2391.75 2391.00 Bias-down: under  2379.25 2378.50 ...would target 2373.00  2372.25 Signal status: LATE BIAS-DOWN FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.