Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference. NEW! Market Tour transcript included at the end of this post...

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... Monday's open attacked Sunday night's 2368.75 low and held the bias-down signal. The offsetting test of the 2380.00 bias-up signal was left outstanding, despite rallying quickly to retrace all of Friday's position-squaring window up to 2376.00. WedEX lapsed and price reversed back down into the noon hour and out of the afternoon bias environment. Sellers gained traction, but the final hour formed the basis for a trend reversal up. Overnight action's new info... Initially dipping to 2368.00 was recovered up to 2370.50 where a surge soon attacked Monday morning's 2376.00 high. Ranging sideways through the night has been supported by the 2374.00 bias-up signal while probing above 2376.00. If, then... Rallying Tuesday morning requires invalidating the traction that sellers gained Monday afternoon, by gapping up above Monday's high. that would also help to complete the trend reversal that had begun forming into the prior close. Any immediate strength must be maintained and preferably also extended through the open to be credible. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2376.00 would be likely to trigger the 2374.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2371.75 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up. Phonetic dictation... [NEW! Unreviewed voice-to-text real-time dictation of the Market Tour recording. Again, not reviewed or edited in any way, which can be equally confusing and humorous.] good morning and welcome it is Tuesday at Stanford Tuesday's Morning Market to her and we have a opportunity here to Raleigh it is a little short of what's necessary to have the highest degree of confidence the highest degree of confidence would be from exiting the open the opening 15 minutes of volatility about yesterday morning's house 2376 just getting out about 2374 it happens me this one is by step signal that's also the beginning of the range of resistance that if the opening were negotiating we give it a little benefit of the doubt depending on how much at already been extended that it were able to that it would be able to extend higher 2374 we're being tested after coming down from 2380 that would be another story but otherwise this is what the market looks like coming into the open or forever good chance at extending them 30 open and extending hire in this picture extending higher to resume the rally from last week so I the fomc reaction that has been totally were traced and ultimately held or at least still being tested in yesterday's clothes but never broken not yet that was in fact the one of too I guess but one biggest Missing Link two pronouncing the pool back since Wednesday as high as complete that is that the repeated probes under-23 7050 didn't close decisively back above 2370 50 we did have a friend change start the form that's the other missing link to yesterday's pattern forming a bottom had a higher higher low never got a higher high not until overnight that's not relevant though that's why gapping up getting up above a prior Highwood turn that traction at Sellers gained into reversal up otherwise if I'm up here yesterday morning's hold to the open 2016 2374 doesn't trigger by ass up that'll put into play at all sitting test of the 6475 biased and signal not a lot of support there really only temporary on the way to 6175 so this whole open getting out about 74 76 or not is the difference between retesting last week's hives which by the way it gets us into the orbit of the highs out of that kind of upside or we're heading down to 6175 and probably look alright any questions while we've got Lil Bit of a break under the rising wedge coming back to test a time to close back above 76-62 reverse we met them down call the pound which itself as a pretty bullish bottom headed to pull back overnight but you can see it's a performing on the recovery extending the franchise Rudy and its range is still very volatile with unfinished Euro somewhat similar but you can see it's been since the day just kind of eating its way flat to hire two flat still need what a world 107 106-95 to reverse the trend down let alone under one of the 760 to stand the uptrend that hasn't happened since it's been recovered and here like to pound it is extending the fresh High silver attacked 1750 yesterday gold attacked or overlapped at least 12 30 to 50 that this Gap up that's extended out both of those representing significant resistance despite probing and reacting down and even a deeper reaction down overnight and gold 12:30 to 5033 Drive 3350 as far as a true fan noises being tested again break hired just seems the first of all it's not required but because the Gap up hasn't been rejected all this time it's indicating that if it were not preventing there being a reaction that anyway but if it were we have confidence in it be covering meanwhile the ability is to the upside long Fun Center close today 14820 preferably positive above 149 wood Target 156 otherwise we raise the pullback limit to 4804 too long is one 4804 isn't broken if you wanted treated as if it's on the way to my crude oil in a Range this is made by the way it came back yesterday and basically neutralized the attraction below or some of it and touching the islands lower price the gap down to that Island open remains outstanding it still wants to be retested from above so that's basically 48 and quarter didn't get that the before bouncing yesterday and I'll get overnight to neutralize the attraction above the Gap back to Fridays close that's the durable bottom formation dip down before trying to extend the higher before creating too much excessive optimism basically inpatient Vine test that Island get that Gap open and probably because of the delay probe the lower end of them for more durable bottom that's the bullish pattern that would help twice and when to recover the three bounce it extending higher he recovered it yesterday pretty much said new highs have to happen before the next possible download extending her overnight has to so this three is again a pullback limit until we actually I can't raise the 3oh 3 but I would raise it to 303 actually printing our Post open and then the cell cycle would be raised to 299 alright go ahead and post them and I will see you at the open

Gap up maintained, not extended, and not defended. Opening at least 1 point above yesterday morning's 2376.00 high was almost half the battle to trending up this morning. Maintaining the gap up through the open was a lot of it, too. The missing link was to actually extend the gap up. But 2376.00 was still being tested when the opening 15 minutes of volatility lapsed. Which is not in itself bearish, but it certainly opens the door. A very wide door, apparently. The 2374.00 bias-up signal was broken and not triggered. An offsetting test of the 2364.75 bias-down signal was put into play. And it was probed by 2 points at 10:30. Then by another 10 points a half-hour later.

The probe under 2364.75 was also overlapping 2364.75, or else it would have invalidated no-bias. So, is probing under 2364.75 "no-bias trending?" Yes, unless the bias environment exit at 11:30 is under the 2359.75 bias-down target, too.

That looks likely, with 2351.50 being tested now. While RSIs are oversold, and 3-minute RSI is persistently oversold. The next major objective below would be 2342.00.

Back above 2357.50 would instead trigger a bounce. Recovering 2359.75 through 11:30 would next be attracted back up to 2364.75, and potentially also to 2368.00.

TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2357.25  2353.50 ...would target  2363.25  2359.50 Bias-down: under  2351.25 2347.50 ...would target  2345.75  2342.00 Signal status: LATE BIAS-DOWN FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Is it possible for today's drop to both begin and end a correction? It's very rare for a bias signal to be invalidated. This morning's no-bias signal was triggered by having failed to maintain the probe above its 2374.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. It was nearly invalidated by probing under its 2364.75 bias-down signal at 10:30, except that it was still being overlapped. Only one more opportunity remained to invalidate the bias signal. And it was exploited by exiting the bias environment under its 2359.75 bias-down target. Whatever had developed to change the environment so substantially, its new sponsorship is strong-handed. This morning's bias-up target is not unfinished business above.

Sort of. This morning's bias-up target is also essentially already unfinished business from yesterday at 2380.00. But for purposes of near-term trending, strong hands are sellers.

The drop's objective at 2342.00 is being tested now, and probes under it down to 2340.25 are also overlapping it. Any lower could test a prior pattern's "lower prior highs" down to 2335.50.

Here's an interesting feature to patterns which is counter-intuitive. Drops that originate from a new high or during its initial reaction down are likely to last through multiple sessions, and then be likely to recover. Drops tend to take one of two widely disparate paths -- either out-sizing the high's initial reaction down in depth and duration, or else running its course very quickly.

So, today's drop comes after a new high's reaction has been retraced back toward the high. This is originating from a lower high. It might be short-lived, ultimately holding its test of 2342.00. And if not, it could be much deeper, next targeting 2310.00.

Tuesday's pattern never broke its series of lower lows and lower highs, i.e. downtrend. Two attempts were made, at the noon hours entry and then at the afternoon bias environments exit. Both resolved down into fresh session lows. Noon's reversal attempt would have been doomed eventually, due to oversold RSIs at the morning's low requiring an eventual retest. The afternoon's reversal attempt would have been substantial, had it made itself obvious by the 3:10-3:20 proxy window. Failing to exploit that all but required fresh session lows. Futures ultimately recovered back up to 2342.00, not closing under the decline's objective. Recovering it decisively would have been a reason to suspect Tuesday's drop is temporary. There's also the anchor at the open's high, and Monday's unfinished business above at 2380.00. Could this be a Wreversal Wednesday? Often, the path up must first extend down. Extending down a little could bottom at 2335.50. Extending down a lot could reach 2327.00 or 2317.00. Two Fed speakers this evening might try talking up the market, or might facilitate testing lower targets overnight. Regardless, gapping up above Tuesday afternoon's 2349.50 high after trending trended down into its close could form a "session-long rally" setup. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2354.25 2350.50 ...would target  2361.00 2357.25 Bias-down: under  2341.00 2337.25 ...would target  2334.75 2331.00 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.