NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A Being in proximity of 2369.75 helps its attraction. So does the post-open ongoing series of higher highs and higher lows. Only 1-minute RSI is diverging negatively, so it's not bearish. The difficulty with extending higher is due to "higher prior lows," since still no prior high has been recovered. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.Pre-Open Market Open - 7:44 AM
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Market Opening Thoughts - 10:47 AM
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A short-squeeze today would have been very likely.
Opening under yesterday's low at the 2352.75 bias-down signal wasn't bearish if not triggered. In fact, it almost immediately launched 5-6 point surge. That was retraced, as was the next, but ultimately another surge extended to the 2361.25 bias-up signal.
The test's timing invoked the grace period, which resolved up. The 2368.25 bias-up target is now being attacked to within 3 ticks. It won't become "unfinished business above" if left outstanding. That objective is a calculation. There's also a structural objective, yesterday afternoon's 2369.75 bias-down signal that broke prematurely and requires a retest.
Tonight's Stock Market Trading Strategy - 11:55 AM
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Stock Market Mid-Day Update - 1:36 PM
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Market Performance Signals - 4:32 PM
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Tomorrow's Day Trading Bias Levels - 5:55 PM
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Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
Low opening print still attracts buyers.
Opening above yesterday's 2354.50 low would have been very bullish. Sellers would have been isolated to the overnight, and a muti-session low could have begun forming.
THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET)
SPX
ES
Bias-up: above
2367.50
2366.00
...would target
2373.50
2372.00
Bias-down: under
2359.00
2357.50
...would target
2353.50
2352.00
Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL
FAQ
INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.
Open's rally has yet to extend.
This morning's 2368.25 bias-up target was attacked to within 2 ticks. It did not become "unfinished business above." Attacking yesterday afternoon's 2369.75 bias-down signal to within 2 points didn't help it attract price the rest of the way, so its unfinished business above remains outstanding.
Narrow ranging broke lower when the morning's bias environment began lapsing. The noon hour was entered testing this afternoon's 2357.50 bias-down signal. Choppy ranging didn't trigger it, and this is now a no-bias environment.
But like yesterday afternoon, the bias-down signal is still under attack. That had made us suspect a no-bias trending break was coming then. And it makes us suspect another one is coming now. First things, first -- it would be triggered under 2358.25, targeting the 2350.00 area. Back above 2362.50 would start to signal a rally more likely into the close.
Thursday afternoon's probe above its 2366.00 bias-up signal came after failing to trigger it. That's "no-bias trending" and it's doomed to failure. Wednesday afternoon's break under its 2369.75 bias-down signal was also no-bias trending. It was unusually productive, ultimately extending down 25 points to the overnight low. But doomed is doomed. And it was retraced entirely Thursday afternoon.
The no-bias trending retracement was itself done by no-bias trending. Unlike Wednesday, Thursday's no-bias trending was retraced already into the close, through 2363.50 to 2362.00.coming out of it. But there are other bearish influences. For example, often the no-bias trending's retracement returns to the 1:20 print, which on Thursday was 2360.00. Also, Thursday's second consecutive close under 2379.00 has confirmed a trend change, requiring at least an eventual third lower close. And the WedEX signal suggests it will influence Friday afternoon bearishly.
Having trended down into Thursday's close, gapping up above the afternoon's 2375.00 bias environment high would form a "session-long rally" setup. That wouldn't negate the confirmed trend change signal, but it could invert the bearish WedEX. Otherwise, morning strength would likely resolve into a new downleg.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET)
SPX
ES
Bias-up: above
2370.50
2369.00
...would target
2377.75
2376.50
Bias-down: under
2359.25
2358.00
...would target
2353.25
2351.75
Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED
FAQ
INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.