NEW DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.Pre-Open Market Signals - 7:47 AM
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Day Trading Post Open Bias Levels - 10:51 AM
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We also knew that retracing a probe of fresh lows could extend back up to Friday morning's 2439.50 high.
Which it just did. And then some.
This morning's Market Tour had also discussed the overnight rally to 2437.50 and its pullback to the 2430.00 bias-up signal. It was likely to extend this morning -- and probably not wait for the open. It did recover up to 2436.00 and the 2433.00 open surged to the 2441.50 renewed bias-up target.
All before triggering bias-up.
Now room for noise at 2443.00 has been tested. RSIs diverged negatively. Back under 2440.25 would start to signal at least a corrective dip to 2435.75, or something more substantial since the bias-up environment and its protection will have lapsed. But there's still an ongoing series of higher highs and higher lows. and the rally is otherwise next targeting 2446.00.
Tonight's Stock Market Trading Strategy - 11:59 AM
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Day Trading Help - Mid-Day - 1:48 PM
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Market Performance Signals - 4:32 PM
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Tomorrow's Stock Market Trading Strategy - 5:55 PM
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Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
Open's surge fulfills buying pressure.
When yesterday's open had fluctuated entirely around Friday's 2424.50 close, we knew that a probe of fresh lows might be short-lived. In fact, diving to 2415.75 was retraced entirely.
TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET)
SPX
ES
Bias-up: above
2449.75
2448.50
...would target
2454.25
2453.25
Bias-down: under
2442.25
2441.25
...would target
2437.25
2436.00
Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL
FAQ
INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.
Hovering at resistance.
This morning's bias environment fulfilled the retest of Friday morning's 2439.50 high. Actually, the open's surge did that. The bias environment extended up to 2445.25. Rallying again at the bias environment's 11:30 lapsing was bullish, and the noon hour extended up to 2448.50.
2448.50 is the afternoon bias-up signal. It didn't trigger. But two reactions down were recovered entirely. Often, that resolves up anyway when the bias environment begins lapsing -- whether or not durably.
This morning's doubly-renewed bias-up target was 2446.00. So long as it holds pullbacks during the bias environment, at least an obligatory fresh high is likely. And it would likely touch 2450.75, regardless of its resolution from there. Back under 2445.00 would instead start signaling momentum already reversing down.
Monday's choppy open had set into motion a series of conditions, each of which has developed through Tuesday's rally. Monday morning's temporary probe of fresh lows at 2415.75, and extending its recovery through Tuesday's opening retest of Friday morning's 2439.50 high, tracked the basic template. Not being rejected early kept the door open to rallying late. Which was done up to 2454.00.
Steep and relentless upside are common characteristics of counter-trending. The counter-trend's actual size is relevant only to the leg it is correcting. So, whether rallying 38 points is a lot or a little matters far less than Tuesday retracing 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} of the last downleg (from Wednesday's 2474.00 high).
Another interesting feature to Tuesday's rally was its sponsorship. The open triggered a buy signal at 2435.00 and never looked back. There was no constructive backing-and-filling, or other tactics typically employed by a rally to refuel buyers. It's less a characteristic of a correction, and more an accident waiting to happen.
Regardless, reversing down still requires an actual sell signal to trigger, and there's room down to 2438.00 before confirming a new downleg is underway. Meanwhile, the corrective rally is otherwise free to extend higher, next targeting 2461.00.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET)
SPX
ES
Bias-up: above
2455.50
2454.50
...would target
2462.00
2461.00
Bias-down: under
2447.00
2446.00
...would target
2441.75
2440.75
Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET
FAQ
INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.