Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... Intraday volatility continued its recent expansion Wednesday, not only with the morning's plunge from 2565.00-2566.00 to the noon hour's 2541.50 low, but also its afternoon recovery up to 2556.00-2557.50. Meanwhile, breaking under 2554.00 before morning bias environment lapsed and remaining under it into the afternoon bias environment entry suggests the decline's sponsorship was strong-handed. No "unfinished business" was left outstanding, although bouncing from only a touch of the 3-week old low does also suggest the afternoon's reaction was only obligatory. Overnight action's new info... Yesterday's last reaction down from 2557.50 had reacted up to 2555.00 at the cash session close. Futures extend the last-minute bounce to almost 2559.00. The enthusiasm had originated too late to be strong-handed sponsorship. That's now somewhat evident by not really advancing since then, barely touching 2560.00. Only somewhat evident, since the last-minute surge hasn't yet been rejected by narrow ranging whose attack on 2556.00 is now reacting back up through 2560.00 by 3 ticks. If, then... Although duration and timing spent under 2554.00 yesterday has established a anchor for sellers -- making any bounce only temporary until a deeper correction is completed -- gapping up Thursday is possible and would be credible for extending Wednesday afternoon's recovery. Retesting Sunday night's highs before first probing fresh lows would then likely form a durable top. Which gapping down Thursday would make likely, a probe under Wednesday's 2541.50 low to at least test 2536.00. The narrow overnight range might seem at odds with the gap potential, but it is only stable in the same sense as nitroglycerin is kept stable to prevent detonation. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2554.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2550.50 bias-down signal at 1015. Exiting the open under 2556.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2561.50 bias-up signal. Phonetic dictation... good morning and welcome it is Thursday it's time for Thursday's Morning Market to her I'm a little surprised because I was ready to trade this overnight and we got nothing nothing I shouldn't be that surprised because the ECB policy statement is this morning coming up about 45 minutes from now 7:45 Mario draghi speaks afterward the big question that the statement should address not rates which are expected to remain steady but what sort of tapering they're planning for next year rumored to be about it 50{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} cut back in purchases so weather balloons LED balloons get to that expectation we'll see how much that's already been built into the market dissipated already before getting into this anxiousness overnight the bases here is for having spent so much time during those specific times timing windows yesterday under 25 50 for the relevant level before recovering and because the recovery then stopped short of rejecting that time and amount of time spent under that relevant level that any kind of bounced from yesterday's low is temporary until yesterday so bouncing further this morning whatever which itself kind of obligatory here just touching 2541 50 which had been the employment situation reports so it's the pivotal load to the actual love that pull back and having touched it says that the actual going to be tested which would have been fine if they have been done yesterday right away instead of standing undermining any reaction up we have to address that this reaction up if it does catch statement why not will be favorable and was forming a durable topandback under yesterday's late Lowe's 51 would set up an attraction back down to yesterday's new Darlow 4150 and again 4150 just having touched the prior load of the pivotal low that is set up a retest of the actual low of that pull back which was 3950 but really targets or measures out to 32 test 3635 361-535-2536 but that would be if that were tested first before neutralizing Sunday night size or retesting Sunday night size let alone putting a new High clothes at their press conference coming after the ECB policy statement not a lot else going on and has unfinished business Euro yesterdayTuesday but we're not greeting from a position of weakness so that would be likely resistance 1 1865 to checking it out overnight when 1812 11868 was tested so that's retested the reward is probably to probe the week old high last Thursday's High when 1895 none of which changes the complexity of complexion of this entire range just biding its time before breaking under one 1760 missed an opportunity yesterday not giving up just like Tuesday having recovered of the Friday's eyes but not closing above and below very critical that that result in a higher close it's that kind of action that got this drop into going or we started this previously this is a month ago probing lower lows recovering but not closing above those prioritize and then you can see that vulnerability gold holding that range 12 750 but getting a little late to be rejecting it if in fact that is a bottom really need to get that going today would be the Catalyst what you'd expect that to happen so it to happen silver somewhere around 7 1711 The Weeknd and then let alone and not following through yesterday that there's potential forbutso 15119 for instance being attacked herebarely that's the normal least likely potential crude oil presumably waiting for its natural position of weakness are they extending lower overnight the objective of this setup being 284 at least get that out of the way you know the the reaction to the I could test that and hold and be in recovery mode by the clothes that's possible alright that's it any questions let me know if you coming shortly and I'll try to track that as it's coming up good luck today .

Is post-open action a smaller version of the bigger pattern? Firming up to 2563.25 greeted the open at the 2561.50 bias-up signal. An eventual break higher retested the pre-open high, briefly. Then price started slipping, and slipping. Yesterday's 2557.50 high was just tested as support. Along the way down, bias-up failed to trigger at 10:15. An offsetting test of the 2550.50 bias-down signal is now in-play. Reacting up to 2560.00 stopped short of even threatening to invalidate the bias-down signal. But the reaction also prevented the first hour from extending its slide back into yesterday's range. The burden of proof is now on sellers to resume the decline before the bias environment begins lapsing. The slide is likelier to resume later. Meanwhile, backing-and-filling just attacked 2563.00, within the context of being a corrective bounce (after 10:30, so it's too late to invalidate the no-bias signaled at 10:15). Back under 2561.00 would start to signal the bounce has failed, and is resolving down. Probing any higher would be "no-bias trending" and doomed to failure.

THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2566.00 2563.50 ...would target  2571.00 2568.75 Bias-down: under  2558.25 2556.00 ...would target  2553.00 2550.50 Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Choppy ranging ahead of three high-profile earnings. Perhaps the session has been contained, but not necessarily paralyzed. The morning's post-open attack on 2564.00 reacted down to 2557.25. Its recovery up to 2565.00 was retraced to fulfill the consequences of its no-bias trending above 2561.50 and 2558.50. All before the noon hour. The noon hour contained a knee-jerk reaction to a negative headline about tax reform talks. But only a knee-jerk reaction, as price action remains contained within a narrowing range. Perhaps it's just anxiousness ahead of post-close earnings due from AMZN, GOOGL, and MSFT. That's normal, but usually not until the afternoon. It seems to be the inverse today, with a lot of energy being expended to contain trending attempts, instead of no energy being expended to even try trending. The ranging may yet persist into the close, as it normally does the afternoon ahead of these three earnings (let alone all three on the same day). Another break higher would still be credible for extending. But the only "unfinished business" outstanding is below from this morning at 2550.50, keeping alive the attraction back into yesterday's range, and the potential for probing under yesterday's low.

Thursday began by retracing a gap up to touch Wednesday afternoon's 2557.50 high as support. The session ended by testing Wednesday afternoon's 2556.00 pivotal high as support. Both tests were recovered back into the range, not back above a relevant resistance. There's no evidence of Thursday's range resolving up. The later dip was barely during the cash session. It originated after having come within 3 minutes of the cash session close. Its recovery was even more detached, coming entirely after the cash session close. The late recovery was substantial, nearly 7 points. It was also relevant, overlapping the 2561.75 opening print -- which the final hour had otherwise narrowly avoided doing. The post-close bounce was almost in time to signal a compelling "hold-short." Gapping down and trending lower Friday morning is still a risk. Gapping up could render that downside risk moot and marginalize sellers for the day. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2565.75 2563.50 ...would target  2571.25  2569.00 Bias-down: under  2557.00  2554.75 ...would target 2551.75  2549.50 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.