Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... Wednesday's open gapped up 3 points, hardly suggesting there had been an 8-point drop overnight. But it was the first bit of refueling all week, and the first refueling since one week prior. The open exploited by surging to new highs attacking 2675.00 and triggering bias-up. Refueling or not, that was still a lot of optimism just ahead of the afternoon's FOMC events. An 8-point drop refueled again, but only for recovering to the morning's highs. No higher. Despite the restrained optimism, the final hour slid to fresh session lows attacking 2666.00, closing unchanged at 2667.25. The morning's 2677.75 bias-up target became "unfinished business above." Overnight action's new info... Yesterday's final hour collapse seems to have fully expressed whatever pessimism triggered it. Globex opened with a bounce that retraced at least 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} of the late intraday drop. That bounce's own 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} retracement has been recovered entirely, and then some, getting two within 6 ticks of yesterday afternoon's highs. If, then... Wednesday's choppy action in a relatively narrow range already suggests that a more durable trending attempt is coming. The final hour's collapse was a glimpse of that, and now so also is its overnight retracement. Not an entire retracement -- not yet, if at all -- but the directional change reflects more opposing opinion, more of which is reflected in its own swings' measurements. Meanwhile, Wednesday's failed probe of multi-session highs triggered a "passive bearish" WedEX. That could be reversed by the proxy of this morning's open gapping up to new highs. Otherwise, more probes of fresh highs remain possible, and they remain vulnerable to reversing back down sharply into the range, if not also below it. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2671.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2672.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Phonetic dictation... good morning welcome it's Thursday time for Thursday's morning like at 2 or I'm going to squeeze in this update between meetings Bank of England meeting that just ended ECB meeting and policy statement coming and then Mario draghi speaking lots of opportunity interested in taking something speeding some sort of move because we got a lot of volatility in here and then up toOkay so maybe a bridge too far up to Tuesday's High and then a big overnight reaction down big recovery we're just running to expand the range not getting too much more out of the for the effort that is Wednesday despite probing Tuesday's High a couple times didn't close above it by the way Wednesday of expiration week the wet X signal number bells and whistles here are the most important ones in this setup being that there is multi-session trending and Wednesday probed a fire high or low and didn't go out overlapping that Pryor high or low actually either exceeded or held and in this case held that the prior High that is passive not active active would have been towhy is going to become vulnerable to reversing back down calculable e preferably from hitting 2677 75 or 2 within 3 checks breaking lower instead that'll leave that unfinished business above still be looking for some spot to buy it or to assume that there is potential to hold in Reverse backup marketsplus minus a nickel at this point natural gas position of strength and actually probing lower overnight ahead of it so still room all the way up to 290 before even signaling that a new rally leg new rally leg is in the waythe range wasn't breaking out of its initial hi we see this a lot I've never seen this pattern for instance go back to Alibaba go back to Facebook go back to I believe snap Knotts death GoPro these initial initial dumps I mean this is not a stock you should at least producer .

Post-open action is ranging narrowly. Tuesday night's dip and Wednesday's intraday choppiness are reflecting the market's widely disparate opinions, and little inhibition from expressing them. The action is warning us that the market intends to try trending, and may even succeed, if not reject an otherwise extended attempt along the way. Measurements of last night's swings suggest the template remains influential. But the open has been relatively subdued. A little more volatile than a Saturday or Sunday, but not much. The pre-open recovery from yesterday's late 2666.25 low had extended to 2673.50. It was the second overnight retracement, and both had measured 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6}. But the 2670.00 open only dipped deeper, attacking 2667.00. And now it has been retraced to test 2671.00.

Post-open action isn't wide enough to have the same sponsorship behind the recent choppiness. And it's not a function of having expended either buyers or sellers. More of a "dry cleaners morning" is suggested -- even if not contained narrowly, still frustrating to trade.

Expiration related? Possibly, if not probably. Yesterday's WedEX signal suggests there's sellers into strength. This morning suggests there's not sellers into weakness. Fresh session lows testing the 2664.25 bias-down signal remain possible, but an organic downdraft (i.e. not triggered by a news) is unlikely.

THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2668.75 2671.75 ...would target  2673.75  2677.00 Bias-down: under  2660.25  2663.50 ...would target  2654.50 2657.50 Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL FAQ NEW! Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Bias environment lapses, volatility expands. The "dry cleaners morning" held 2671.00 resistance through the open and well into the bias environment. Already reacting down before the bias environment came within view of lapsing, the open's 2667.50 low was probed several minutes prematurely. It extended down anyway to touch the morning's 2664.50 bias-down signal. A bounce retested the premature portion of the break up to 2668.50, and then another slide began at noon. Extending down into the afternoon bias environment has tested and retested 2661.25. But the 2663.50 bias-down signal didn't trigger, either way. This is a noN-bias environment.

Not a bias-down targeting 2657.50, although that's the next likely objective if the drop extends. And not a no-bias likely to define this window's low by the 2663.50 bias-down signal, although that's how many noN-bias environments behave.

The latter happens often, and occasionally resolves in sort of a delayed bias-down. So, just hovering at or around 2663.50 until the bias environment starts lapsing -- which has been the case so far this afternoon -- could exit the bias environment as if the bias signal were triggering. So, fresh lows testing 2657.50 can't be dismissed.

Recovering 2664.50 would start to signal momentum reversing up. Don't forget that while this environment remains likely to try trending either way, it's not yet any likelier to succeed either way. And there's still unfinished business above at 2677.75.

Recently expanded volatility had suggested the market was beginning to argue more aggressively with itself. More obvious trending attempts would be made, but not necessarily would they succeed. Which is why Thursday's "dry cleaners morning" was surprising. The balance of the session compensated. Hardly waiting for the bias environment to come within view of lapsing, the otherwise narrow range started sliding from 2671.00 down to 2664.50. Its 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} retracement up to 2668.50 reversed down through the noon hour, triggered noN-bias, and extended down through the bias environment to 2654.75. Oversold RSIs at the low didn't prevent bouncing 7 points to attack 2662.00. That was only 2-4 points short of levels whose recovery through the close would have been a compelling hold-long. That's one way to reverse up. But the last half-hour dropped to retest the low and neutralize its oversold RSIs. That's another way to reverse up -- if followed by recovering a relevant resistance. And that's the missing ingredient to a rally -- a buy signal. "Unfinished business above" at 2677.75 is already outstanding. That's *only* 20 points above, with a bearish WedEX afternoon impending. The most credible catalyst would be a reversal of the news that supposedly triggered Thursday's drop. Not yet recovering through the morning would be difficult to recover before Monday afternoon.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2656.00 2659.00 ...would target  2662.75 2665.75 Bias-down: under  2648.50  2651.50 ...would target  2642.00  2645.00 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED FAQ NEW! Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.