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Through the prior close... Wednesday night's rally didn't only gap up into Thursday's open. It gapped up into an increasingly bearish pattern of early strength being rejected early. The pattern differed Thursday only in its early surge having come pre-open, a news headline's knee-jerk reaction up to 2853.75. Regardless of the accelerated timing, it was already snapping back down into the open, which immediately neutralized the "unfinished business above" at Wednesday's 2848.00 open. The first half-hour's collapse retested overnight lows down to 2933.75 and bounced again to attack 2848.00. Apparently, that strength was early enough to be rejected down to new lows at 2830.75. So early, that even that drop bounced 9-10 points to close at 2840.00-2841.00, almost flat on the day. But still too late for the late bounce to prevent sellers from gaining traction for their efforts. Overnight action's new info... Thursday's late bounce had extended through the close, and through the Globex open up to 2847.00 before midnight. Narrow ranging through Europe's opens finally broke higher to recently test 2852.00. A pullback is now testing what is this morning's 2849.00 bias-up target as support. If, then... Patterns don't go on forever and repeat endlessly. It's not uncommon for a series to contain 5, 6, 7 observations of the same behavior. And the 2-week long rally since the last 3-day weekend already contains 4 obvious early rejections of early strength. But a couple of others could qualify. So, I know what your thinking -- especially with another gap up indicated this morning... Did this pattern of rejecting early strength early already run its course? Will this gap up be maintained through the open to reject yesterday afternoon's sellers having gained traction? That could combine quite bullishly with a quasi "session-long rally" setup and Friday morning biases tending to persist through the noon hour. Or, is there at least one more early rejection of early strength left in the chamber? Whether through the open, or after a post-open surge, another ambush by rejection awaits. Well, there's one way to find out... Okay, maybe two ways. Either extend higher through the open and above any resistance encountered during those first 15 minutes of volatility, or else exit the open trending down and preferably back under 2843.00. Punk (With apologies to Dirty Harry). PROGRAMMING NOTE: Friday's Market Wrap will be held at least one hour early. REMINDER: There is NO Saturday Review this weekend AND next. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above at least 2845.50 would be likely to trigger the 2843.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2851.00 would be likely also to exceed the 2849.00 bias-up target through 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal next targeting fresh highs.

Gap up extends too late to be credible. The open's gap up to this morning's 2949.00 bias-up target only touched 2850.50 before dipping. The dip stopped 1 tick short of touching yesterday afternoon's 2846.25 bias environment high, whose break would have rejected the early strength. So, early strength isn't being rejected early? Not necessarily. At least, not decisively enough to default to being bullish. While the gap up was ultimately maintained through the opening 15 minutes of volatility, it didn't extend. But neither was it rejected, so sellers weren't marginalized. Not until after 9:45 were overnight highs probed up to 2852.75. Regardless of the opening pattern, maintaining the recovery above this morning's 2849.00 bias-up target would have renewed the bias-up signal. Then a very last-minute 4-point spike down probed under 2849.00 by 1 point just in time to prevent renewing bias-up.

If this sounds like a lot of contradicting indications, that's because it's a lot of contradicting indications. The offsets undermine each other, and make trending in either direction difficult. So does this: Since 3 of the first hour's 5 15-minute checkpoints overlapped the same relevant level (2849.00), this is a "dry cleaners morning" which is unlikely to trend.

Breaking beyond either end of a 2848.25-2851.75 range would be credible for trending in that direction. Its upper-end is being pierced now, to touch an unconfirmed fresh high at 2854.00. This is still a bias-up environment, albeit having failed to renew. And there is room down to the 2843.75 bias-up signal until the bias environment comes within view of lapsing.

FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2856.75 2857.25 ...would target  2860.75  2861.25 Bias-down: under  2849.25  2849.75 ...would target  2843.25  2843.75 Signal status: BIAS-UP FAQ NEW! Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Belated breaks bringing buyers. The open's gap up didn't extend, but it was maintained. That wasn't decisive enough to confirm extending, but sellers weren't exploiting it. Fresh highs after the opening 15 minutes of volatility were too late to confirm extending, too. Sellers did exploit that, with a very last-minute 4-point spike down to probe the 2849.00 bias-up target and avoid renewing the bias-up signal. But it was still a bias-up environment, and the rally resumed. Extending the open's gap up, and/or renewing the bias-up signal would have targeted new highs. A new high followed anyway at the morning's 2856.50 peak. Barely a new high, no less grudging than the delayed buying spurts preceding it. But sellers still haven't retaken control as this afternoon's 2861.25 bias-up target is met one minute after entering the bias environment. And now it's being probed by at least 1 point after an interim dip to its pullback limit. Among my Friday Factors setups is the afternoon bias environment exit on a trending session. Exiting at fresh session highs is incredibly difficult to reverse down -- not required to extend, but vulnerable to it anyway. Exiting the bias environment under a prior low or relevant level like 2857.75 would be vulnerable to dropping through the close.

MARKET WRAP WAS HELD EARLY AT 2:22 ET FRIDAY. THIS SUMMARY IS BASED ON PRICE ACTION THROUGH 3:30. Friday Factors exploited the morning's inability to exploit the delayed improvement upon the open's gap up. Friday morning biases tend to persist through the noon hour, further inhibiting sellers. And greeting the afternoon bias environment all but fulfilling its target also fulfilled its buying pressure. Yet another opportunity sellers failed to exploit. The rest of the session was governed by the greatest Friday Factor of them all. Trending sessions that exit the afternoon bias environment above all prior timing window highs rarely reverse down. And the greatest corollary of them all, that the setup is very vulnerable to extending the session's trend. We're left with a new trend extreme close requiring at least an eventual follow-up higher close. It's a blow-off rally, and Friday Factors probably also prevented rejecting early strength early, so another downdraft first is possible Monday morning. But any downdraft at this stage, however deep or protracted, is likely to be recovered.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. REMINDER: NO SATURDAY REVIEW THIS WEEKEND... ENJOY!