Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... Wednesday's pattern was a twisted version of the template that was developing well before its open. Tuesday's rally had essentially targeted 2673.75, which was fulfilled overnight, essentially targeting 2684.00 and a failure from there. Pre-open CPI triggered a 49-point plunge to 2627.00 that could have been an accelerated version of the template. It wasn't. All of the plunge was retraced during Wednesday's first hour, and later exceeding 2684.00 targeted 2698.00-2700.00 that was probed up to 2701.75 into the close. Overnight action's new info... The afternoon's extended rally had developed after already fulfilling its renewed bias-up target. Not exploiting the opportunity for a refueling pullback had created the vulnerability, opportunity and likelihood for overnight weakness. No such thing. Wednesdsay's late range persisted briefly down to 2693.50 before resuming the rally, which has extended up to 2719.50. An 11-point pullback  bounced bacl into resistance at this morning's 2713.50 bias-up target, which has pushed back and extended down to 2705.00. If, then... January's highs require an eventual retest, making the decline a temporary correction, or at least the first downleg of a more substantial decline. Meanwhile, that decline's current retracement is a temporary correction of that first downleg, still needing to retest last Friday's low regardless of the substantial interim bounce. Retesting the low sooner rather than later can still hold and launch a more significant recovery. But extending this week's rally starts making the high's retest likelier first. Expect the market to behave accordingly, with more dissenting opinion like yesterday's pre-open CPI-reaction plunge -- with or without a quick and complete recovery, the difference being predictive. Meanwhile, a gap down isn't indicated, needed as a proxy for inverting the bullish WedEX to bearish. So, unless today's pre-open reports were to trigger a repeat of yesterday's CPI plunge, the next higher objective may be 2753.00-2757.00. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2715.25 would be likely to exceed the 2713.50 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open above 2709.50 would be likely at least to trigger the 2703.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2698.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Chance to renew bias-up fails as target holds. But it's still a bias-up environment. That is, the 2703.00 bias-up signal was exceeded through 10:15. Simple. Let's complicate that, shall we? Triggering bias-up puts into play its target. Which this morning is 2713.50. Which was tested already post-open, first up to 2717.75, then lower and lower through 10:15 when it was officially pronounced as having held. So, this is a bias-up environment whose target is met. It's still a bias-up environment, so its target can be met again. Its target need not hold a retest, although that's less likely having held its test(s) through 10:15 instead of exceeding it to renew the bias-up signal. The likelier resolution is to attack or test the bias-up signal as support.

That seems odd, and should -- expecting the bias-up environment to dip. But it tends to be the resolution when not renewing the bias-up signal AND when gapping up so high as to have avoided even touching the bias-up signal during the session's entire first 45 minutes.

So, that's the expectation. Unless the 2713.50 bias-up target is exceeded, the balance of the bias environment is likely to attack or to test its 2703.00 bias-up signal as support. Anything later or lower will depend on what pattern forms along the way. I'll lower the buy signal as possible. ADDENDUM: Before being able to upload this post, the expectation described above (which I have been describing all morning in the chaRTroom) was fulfilled. More so, 2703.00 is being probed to test 2698.00-2700.00. This will require bouncing to at least 2703.00 for it to define the window's lower-end. And there's potential for today to close back under 2684.00 which would invalidate yesterday's recovery. However, it's too late to invert the bullish WedEX.

THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2713.25 2712.50 ...would target  2725.50  2725.00 Bias-down: under  2095.75  2095.25 ...would target  2685.50  2684.75 Signal status: BIAS-UP FAQ NEW! Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Morning drop recovered to probe overnight highs. This morning's 2703.00 bias-up signal triggered without being touched post-open. But having held a test of its 2713.50 bias-up target, the balance of the window was likely to test the bias-up signal as support. This template is standard, and I describe it in great detail this morning here. Anyway, probing under the bias-up signal had required retracing 2703.00 before an actual drop would be credible. No actual drop was required. The retracement would be free to actually resume the overnight rally, or at least to retest the 2719.50 overnight high. 2703.00 was probed down to 2688.50, indicating a buy signal back above 2700.00. It triggered, and the overnight high was probed up to 2721.00. Structurally, the fresh high is the minimum reward for having absorbed the probe under 2703.00. Meanwhile, this afternoon's 2712.50 bias-up signal has triggered, putting into play its 2725.00 target. A pullback is now trying to hold 2712.50 as support, and back above 2717.00 (being tested now) would start signaling its success. Dipping under 2711.50 would be difficult to recover today.

BITCOIN. I described a pattern developing this morning that suggested the hesitation upon approaching 10,000 would lead to a surge through it, and THEN a more substantial pullback. The surge is now developing, and my mid-morning update in the chaRTroom noted its minimum target is 10,225 where I would begin selling. Piercing the target by $22 is reacting down sharply, already $100 points to 9,945. Curiously, ETH and LTC didn't participate to the upside.

Thursday's gap up above the morning's 2713.50 bias-up target could have resolved a lot of ways. Exceeding it in time would have renewed the bias-up signal. Reversing down from it and under the bias-up signal would have targeted both bias-down parameters. But something in between -- like Thursday's opening pattern -- was likely to test the 2703.00 bias-up signal as support and either hold it or recover from probing under it. And having probed under it 2788.50, the pattern would likely reward its buyers with a fresh session high above 2717.50-2719.50.

That's two sizeable moves being signaled before noon, and the session kept giving.

The fresh high promised by the second signal also triggered the afternoon's 2712.50 bias-up targeting 2725.00. It was probed by nearly 4 points before testing a sell signal down to 2719.50. But fidgety shorts overwhelmed the position-squaring window which surged 10 points into the cash session close and added 3 more into the futures close.

The second consecutive higher close above 2684.00 makes 2753.00-2757.00 even likelier. The WedEX is unaffected and remains intact, likely to influence Friday afternoon and Monday morning bullishly. Meanwhile, a second consecutive afternoon has refused to exploit an opportunity for the rally to rest on its laurels and refuel by trapping shorts, keeping alive the potential for another pullback first.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2733.00 2732.50 ...would target  2740.75  2740.50 Bias-down: under  2720.00  2719.75 ...would target  2710.75  2710.25 Signal status: LATE BIAS-UP FAQ NEW! Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.