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DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... Friday's open was greeted by sideways ranging that never probed Thursday's test of 2677.00 resistance, but also not rejecting it. Post-open action didn't probe higher either, never stretching the rubber band. So, a drop to 2658.00 lacked the momentum of a rubber band snapping back. The drop was retraced almost as quickly. The balance of the session copied the overnight pattern and ranged sideways, never probing 2677.00 resistance, but also not rejecting it. Overnight action's new info... A delayed open seemed to have a lot of pent-up buying pressure. Spiking up 9-10 points from Friday's 2669.00-2671.50 close was retraced quickly. Then it was recovered gradually. And extended, for awhile. Attacking 2681.00 was later improved to 2682.25, and its reaction down is attacking the 2677.50 interim low. If, then... Without rejecting the ongoing test of 2677.00 on a timely basis, fresh highs became more possible. Now they're being tested, above 2681.00 and not quite attacking 2684.25. Fresh highs are still vulnerable to reversing down, albeit a little less so, and probably not if maintained much past noon. Extending higher would target 2693.00 and 2703.00. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2681.00 would be likely to trigger the 2678.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2674.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Triggering then un-triggering bias-up. Pulling back into the open from 2682.25 to 2674.50 was sufficient to correct the earlier overnight gains. We know that because the open surged, extending to attack 2682.00. Interestingly, the price action seemed to be ignoring or at least compartmentalizing an ominous announcement from Israel regarding Iran. Apparently, that became impossible when crude oil had popped too much.

Eventually, price had reversed down to 2671.75. I'm assuming it's a reaction to non-market news which is likely to be recovered. But that's in contradiction to the 2678.25 bias-up signal failing to trigger, putting into play an offsetting test of its 2662.25 bias-down signal.

A reaction up to 2679.00 is trying to rally, anyway. Which it can, even with the objective outstanding below. Exiting the bias environment above its 2684.25 bias-up target would invalidate that objective below, but it can become "unfinished business." Back above 2679.00 would put higher highs back into play. Otherwise, another dip under 2673.00 would reinforce the 2662.25 objective, or something substantially lower this morning on the along that path.

MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2674.50 2673.00 ...would target  2682.50  2681.00 Bias-down: under  2662.75  2661.50 ...would target  2654.50  2653.25 Signal status: noN-BIAS, STILL TESTING BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL FAQ Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Focus on Iran pushes price down... to support? The catalyst for this morning's drop was notice of a press conference that would be viewed as anti-Iran deal. And anything anti-Iran deal is viewed as a reason to sell. Despite holding tests of room for noise up to 2681.00, the open's consolidation above 2677.00 had created a position of strength.Not that it could prevent reacting down, but reacting down would likely recover. Reacting down to 2672.00 did recover back into the range above 2677.00, retracing it by 38.2{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} -- not 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} -- and triggering no-bias instead of bias-up.

The noon hour's entry attacked the 2662.25 no-bias objective. The noon hour probed it to within 1 point of the afternoon's 2653.25 bias-down target. That's a lot of selling pressure.

Like this morning's bias-up signal, this afternoon's 2661.50 bias-down signal test invoked the grace period. Unlike this morning, the grace period is still testing the signal to trigger noN-bias. It's possible the timing window was impacted by Netanyahu's actual press conference. Having fulfilled the bias-down target to within 1 point, rallying would be credible -- especially with the press conference now having ended. Already 2664.50 is being tested. All of this morning's drop can be recovered for being a reaction to non-market news. But now having tried to recover, triggering another sell signal after already reacting down from 2681.00 could launch the next downleg.

The topping pattern that would have been credible Thursday finally played out Monday. So, why is it suspicious? One word: CATALYST. Attacking or testing 2677.00 last week would have sufficed to expend all currently available buying pressure. Reversing down from its test would have sufficed to signal counter-trend sponsorship taking control. Delaying its reversal made fresh highs likelier, up to at least 2681.00, which was tested and attacked Sunday night and Monday morning. The bias environment lapsed back under 2677.00.

Oh, and the decline extended down another 32 points to 2646.00. So, bearish?

Bearish behavior, for sure. But the reversal's durability is a function of its origin and its sponsorship. Its catalyst was not simply a failed attempt to resume the rally. The open's consolidation above 2677.00 had created a position of strength likely to probe even higher. A news headline prevented that, and more of the same news extended the reversal. An artificial catalyst often crowds out organic sponsorship, which is then left unfulfilled. Monday's decline didn't gain traction, so gapping up above 2658.50 Tuesday could reverse the trend back up to probe fresh highs up to 2684.25. That said, and artificial catalyst can still be productive, so not yet reversing up through Tuesday's open would next target 2635.00-2638.00. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2654.75 2653.25 ...would target  2662.75  2661.25 Bias-down: under 2644.00  2642.75 ...would target  2636.50  2635.25 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET FAQ Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.