Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... Tuesday's open was greeted back at the lower-end of its overnight range. The overnight range had still felt the influence and momentum of Monday's steep decline. Its minimum objective of 2641.50 had been touched earlier overnight but its rejection failed. The next lower objective at 2635.00-2638.00 was met during the open, and its break came within 1 tick of the 2623.00 target at the afternoon low. The bias environment reversed up to recover all of those objectives, and the balance of the session extended to recover positive territory up to 2653.00-2654.00. The rally gained traction for its effort. Overnight action's new info... A tree fell in a forest last night. Globex began like a mirror image of the prior night, immediately extending the late intraday surge to 2658.00, then immediately starting a narrow range between 2654.00-2656.00. That was blind-sided by headlines that Mueller wants an interview. And wants it bad. Like, subpoena in the pocket bad. Not terribly surprising news, but thin volume at that time enabled a 12-point plunge to 2643.50. The balance of the night gradually recovered the original surge's high up to 2658.50. Another plunge to 2651.00 has quickly retraced up 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} and more to 2657.00. If, then... Having gained traction for its effort, Tuesday's recovery was likely to extend higher today, unless the open were to gap down sufficiently. The overnight knee-jerk reaction to Mueller's big subpoena headline was an opportunity to gap down, but it was absorbed. Its retracement suggests that fresh highs are still intended, at least this morning. The second overnight dip suggests that fresh highs might not be tenable. But yesterday's traction combined with now recovering two overnight plunges also requires probing higher immediately, or else a post-open plunge becomes likely. The afternoon's FOMC policy statement's reaction will depend greatly on what is accomplished this morning. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2660.25 would be likely to trigger the 2658.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2655.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Yesterday's follow-through limited to overnight probes. The overnight recovery to 2658.50 touched this morning's bias-up signal. But it was too early for its rejection or its recovery to be predictive. Nevertheless, its resistance reacted down to greet the open at 2649.00. Which could have sufficed for a shallow gap down that resolves up. And may yet. But so far the gap down has extended, or ranged flat-to-lower attacking this morning's 2642.00 bias-down signal to within 1 tick. That's not an actual test, so the it's not an actual rejection. In other words, the rubber band wasn't stretched enough for more than a shallow snap back up. The reward for upside traction gained yesterday afternoon may be limited to the surge through the Globex open or its subsequent retest. But the reaction down didn't produce a gap down sufficient to offset that upside traction. So, fresh highs this morning aren't assured, but backing-and-filling up toward overnight highs could react favorably to this afternoon's FOMC event. Greeting the event from under 2642.00 would be unlikely to rally.

WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2655.75 2653.25 ...would target  2663.50 2661.00 Bias-down: under  2641.25 2639.00 ...would target  2635.75 2633.50 Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

No morning rally, or downtrend. This morning's opening dip only came to within 1 tick of its 2642.00 bias-down signal. That didn't stretched the rubber band tightly enough for a snap back up to its bias-up signal. But the gap back to yesterday's 2652.00 cash session close was attacked to within 1 point. Then another dip tested 2642.00, by almost 2 points as the bias environment lapsed. But it was too late to trigger bias-down. It was, however, late enough to extend down, but sellers lacked sponsorship. So another bounce is attacking 2652.00 to within 1 tick. Anxiousness ahead of the 2:00 FOMC Policy Statement likely bears some responsibility for inhibiting trending in either direction. It may also be responsible for preventing a morning probe above yesterday's highs. That inhibitor will soon resolve, and the door remains open to fresh highs. Fresh highs aren't required, and they're not required to extend or even to be maintained. Regardless of fresh highs, back under 2645.00 would more likely launch a retracement of yesterday afternoon's rally, at least to 2635.00.

Tuesday afternoon's rally had gained traction for its effort. Reversing down Wednesday morning required gapping under a relevant support. Wednesday's open did gap down -- after testing fresh highs up to 2658.50 several times overnight.

But the 2648.00 open was too shallow to reflect strong-handed sponsorship. And the morning's 2642.00 bias-down signal didn't trigger. So, no reversal down.

Also, no intraday probe above Tuesday's 2654.00 intraday high, not until the afternoon's FOMC policy statement reaction. Surging to 2658.50 took RSIs overbought, which requires an eventual retest.

Oversold RSIs at the morning's 2640.25 low were more attractive. Its retest targeted at least 2635.00, but that extended to 2629.00. Retracing to between 2630.50-2633.00 within 3 minutes of the cash session close avoided triggering both a hold-short and hold-long setup. Actually, 2633.00 was being overlapped, which is not a decisive break. Despite not triggering hold-short, post-close action is extending down so far to 2627.00. Isolating it to open Thursday back above 2635.00-2638.00 could target a retest of Wednesday's 2658.50 high, which would all but ensure retesting Monday's 2783.25 high. Extending down anyway could resume the bigger picture's decline. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2640.75 2638.25 ...would target  2648.50  2646.00 Bias-down: under  2628.25  2626.00 ...would target  2620.75  2618.50 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED FAQ Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.