Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... Wednesday's open eventually surged, and extended 14 points into the morning's high. The balance of the session ranged choppily sideways. So, what else is new. It was the fourth consecutive morning trending and the fifth consecutive afternoon range. The afternoon's momentary fresh highs was a difference, so perhaps the pattern will soon be replaced. Meanwhile, the session closed  above 2909.00 to put into play higher objectives of 2925.50 and potentially also 2930.00. Overnight action's new info... Yesterday afternoon's attempt to turn down had instead become the usual afternoon range. Its potential to 2908.00-2909.00 is nevertheless being tested overnight, down to 2907.00. The move isn't substantial compared to yesterday's 2915.00 close, but the trip there has been relentless. That is, notwithstanding the reaction to a favorable trade war headline that just blipped-up to 2911.00. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) testing this morning's bias-down signal only overnight wouldn't have a specific upside reward. And repeating the test post-open could still trigger bias-down. Which is entirely possible, and possible to extend down to 2892.25, 2884.50 or even 2880.25, despite Wednesday having been the last day to reverse the trend down ahead of a 3-day holiday weekend. Yesterday's surge created even more room to expend selling pressure without it yet reversing the trend down, and there was already room. Regardless of its direction, keep in mind that mornings have been trending. There's no requirement to repeat that behavior, but be careful stepping in front of a trending attempt before it tests resistance above or support below. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 back above 2911.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2909.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2906.75 would be likely to trigger bias-down.

Morning trending may skip a day. The open gapped down to this morning's 2909.00 bias-down signal. And ranged there. Touching the 2907.00 overnight low reacted up to test 2911.00, but dipping back down still overlapped 2909.00. The grace period was invoked, and maintaining a recovery above 2909.00 would have triggered late no-bias for an offsetting test of the 2818.75 bias-up signal. A little upside momentum back above 2912.00 would would help to at least fill the gap back up to yesterday's 2914.75 close. Just testing "higher prior lows" or the prior high from yesterday afternoon's range is not trending. Only breaking lower would qualify as trending this morning. Regardless of being too late for putting into play the bias-down target, or of a bias-up target outstanding, fresh lows could extend.

THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2910.50 2911.00 ...would target 2917.50 2918.00 Bias-down: under 2902.50 2903.00 ...would target 2895.00 2895.50 Signal status: BIAS-UP . NEW: BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

New tariffs news triggers plunge. Today's signals have probably been impacted by volume contracting ahead of the 3-day holiday weekend. This morning barely triggered noN-bias, and used the aimless environment to range choppily sideways. Now this afternoon's cleanly triggered 2911.00 bias-up signal has stalled under 2913.00, and then collapsed to 2899.00. The stalling may have been related directly to volume, but the collapse is indirectly related -- the low-volume environment has magnified the reaction to a China trade war tariff headline. It's too late to exit the bias window under its 2895.50 bias-down target, so the 2918.00 bias-up target becomes "unfinished business" above. Back above 2903.00 (being tested now) could start that recovery. But back under 2900.00 would more likely extend the decline.

The recent tradition of morning trending into afternoon ranging was reversed Thursday. Gapping down ranged choppily sideways, and an afternoon retest of the morning's high reacted down sharply. Granted, the afternoon's plunge was a headline reaction. And the morning's bias window exit was probing fresh session lows. But sellers gained traction for their efforts, exiting the afternoon bias window and entering the final hour under their prior timing window's lows. Nevertheless, "unfinished business" was left outstanding above at the afternoon's 2818.00 bias-up target. Which would be an attraction, especially if Friday's open is gapping up above Thursday afternoon's 2913.00 high, which is definitely possible if Friday isn't extending Thursday's drop to unfinished business below at 2892.25. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2907.00 2907.50 ...would target 2913.50 2914.00 Bias-down: under 2897.50 2898.25 ...would target 2891.75 2892.25 Signal status: NO-BIAS. TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL, ALREADY TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL . NEW: BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.