Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== I AM AWAY FROM THE SCREEN DURING THE FIRST HALF-HOUR

Through the prior close... Sunday night's initial 13-point bounce attacked 2617.00, but began breaking lower before Europe's opens, and kept breaking lower through it. Greeting Monday's open under Friday's low at 2593.00 -- still within last Monday's range -- suddenly plunged to new lows at 2571.00. Bouncing 35 points probed back into Friday's range and into positive territory but stopped just ticks short of reversing momentum up. Having only refueled sellers, the decline established a likely target at 2555.00 that was met going into the final hour. The position-squaring window touched 2533.50, but 2555.00 was recovered through the close. Overnight action's new info... Yesterday's late recovery initially extended up to 2569.00, where China headlines triggered a reaction down to 2553.00. The test of yesterday's close(s) essentially avoided negative territory, and recovered to attack the earlier 2569.00 high. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) I AM AWAY FROM THE SCREEN DURING THE FIRST HALF-HOUR. Yesterday's morning's big bounce and its potential for recovery wasn't only retraced entirely. It was retraced relentlessly, but not very quickly. The slow descent reflects the ineffectual side of the optimism coin, the flip-side to the morning's excessively optimistic bounce. Both are bearish from a contrarian perspective, so two of the three important questions are whether Monday's ultimate low neutralized that bearishness, and if any new bearishness gained traction. The new low close keeps the decline intact, but a lot of calculable selling pressure was met and held -- this leg's 2530.00-2538.00 objective was met down to 2533.50, and then recovered to hold the morning's 2555.00 target. So, early strength would be credible for a morning bounce. By the way, the third important question to ask is whether any new optimism is joining yesterday's, and the answer may be yes with last night hovering exclusively in positive territory. Another corrective bounce could test 2595.50 without threatening the decline's lower objectives at 2530.00 which can be met on the way down to testing 2500.00. I AM AWAY FROM THE SCREEN DURING THE FIRST HALF-HOUR. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2555.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2558.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2563.00 would be likely to trigger bias-up. Exiting the open above 2566.00 would be likely to exceed the 2564.75 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal.

Optimistic open has yet to push higher. A pre-open surge through 2569.00 had probed fresh overnight highs up to 2574.00, before greeting the open back down at 2569.00. A few post-open points lower reacted up to attack 2578.00. 2578.00 is a 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} retracement of yesterday's high-to-low drop, and its resistance held. Now 2569.00 is being tested again as support. All of which is taking place in a bias-up environment. Renewed. A reaction down has room down to the 2558.25 bias-up signal as support, but no requirement to test it. Back above 2574.50 could extend up to 2595.50, and still maintain the decline's momentum. RSIs don't reflect any increase in buying pressure, so not actually trending up soon would become very vulnerable to unimpressed sellers pushing price back down.

TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2565.50 2569.00 ...would target 2571.00 2574.50 Bias-down: under 2554.50 2558.00 ...would target 2548.25 2551.75 Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BOTH BIAS-UP PARAMETERS . NEW: BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Three distinct rally efforts, each retraced. Last night's initial bounce up to 2569.00 was retraced to unchanged. Another overnight bounce extended through the open to attack 2578.00. It was retraced, too. Now the noon hour's bounce up to 2576.00 has been retraced -- largely, not entirely. The post-open bounce's retracement filled the open's gap, which suggested wide-ranging sideways choppiness would develop. No further down, no new rally, just a wide range. Which the noon hour's bounce fulfilled. The last bounce also tested both afternoon bias-up parameters. They were rejected by triggering late no-bias. The setup's likely test of this afternoon's 2558.00 bias-down signal is being met now, and probed down to 2554.00. Extending down further is possible, but more appropriate after the bias environment comes within view of lapsing, when it could more easily start the ball rolling (slowly) toward a late-afternoon decline. The decline could resume today, although it won't be very easy on the afternoon ahead of tomorrow's FOMC policy statement.

Differences aside, Monday and Tuesday's similarities include both a large optimistic presence, and an a large slide through the afternoon. Monday's optimism was the rally that followed its opening plunge, but Tuesday's optimism was the three shallower rallies that each retraced to unchanged. Declining through the afternoon was much more persistent Monday, extending through the position-squaring window. Tuesday's afternoon drop ended with the final hour. Notice how time shifted forward on Tuesday. That has some interesting effects. Monday's late low is what enabled the Tuesday's overnight and intraday optimism. But Tuesday's late bounce has already used its optimism, recovering 31 points of the 45-point point slide. In fact, already exploiting that optimism is what enabled a 26-point slide through the close. What typically comes next after timing window behavior shifting forward? Legs accelerating their trends. Tuesday's low fulfilled its objective of probing under Monday's low, attacking the outstanding 2530.00 target to within 1 point. That's close enough not to become "unfinished business," but only if Wednesday's open is greeted at Tuesday's late 2562.50 high and higher. The trend otherwise remains down, and vulnerable to accelerating. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3554.00 2557.50 ...would target 2561.00 2564.50 Bias-down: under 2539.75 2543.25 ...would target 2532.00 2535.50 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED . NEW: BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.