Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... Sunday night's gap up to 2505.50 was only a 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} retracement back to Friday's late high, suggesting its buyers weren't strong-handed. Firming overnight up to 2512.50 held within the retracement's range for noise to suggest nothing different. And Monday's open overlapped the morning's open and 2504.50 bias-up target through the first 3 15-minute checkpoints to suggest that trending wasn't likely. In fact, the session ultimately went only in circles, choppily fluctuating between Friday's close below down to 2482.75, and the overnight highs above. The close was overlapping the 2505.50 retracement open, confirming that buyers weren't strong-handed. Overnight action's new info... Monday's final minutes had dipped to 2488.00. Wild year-end mark-to-market volatility had triggered a 25-point surge snapped back up to through the close to touch 2513.00. Tuesday night's open surged again to probe Monday's highs up to 2521.25. By midnight, that had been reversed back under Monday's lows down to 2479.00. Sliding sharply through Europe's opens extended to 2452.25. Its reaction consolidated up to 2471.00, and then broke higher to 2478.00. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) If the for any higher high remains alive, then it's likely to be by a wide margin, and not only to probe a fresh high. Meanwhile, the scenario for already having ended the temporary corrective bear market bounce seems unwilling to wait any longer. Its potential was discussed throughout Monday, with vulnerability to a year-end drop as everyone realizes the bounce into Thursday's highs was the product of big money having front-run each other already. And if the timing were delayed, then its likely appearance would come earlier today rather than later -- and the potential for first probing fresh highs is no longer part of the template. So, already reversing down shouldn't find much more interim strength than to test Friday-Tuesday "higher prior lows" as resistance before extending down. Otherwise, any more strength through the open that isolates the overnight dip would suggest that the dip was being absorbed by a bigger rally. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2477.00 would be unlikely to recover the 2483.25 bias-down target through 10:15 to renew the bias-down signal. Exiting the open under 2490.75 would be likely at least to trigger the 2493.00 bias-down signal at 10:15.

Sellers not yet rejected. Monday's very late price action included a sell signal that was probed under 2494.00 by 6 points (before snapping back up 25 points). Now this morning's 2468.00 open has produced a 26-point bounce to test 2494.00 as resistance. And resistance has held. Also being tested was this morning's 2493.00 bias-down signal, invoking the grace period and ultimately triggering late. Its reaction down is now retesting its 2483.25 bias-down target down to 2482.00. Sellers weren't isolated to the overnight, so a recovery can't yet be dismissed. Certainly not by triggering late bias-down and already meeting its target. Exiting the bias environment rallying back above the bias-down parameters could trend back up to Monday's 2510.00 highs. The downside is meanwhile free to resume. Exiting the bias window under its target, and preferably deeper, would suggest that the open's buyers had expended a lot of selling pressure without gaining traction for their effort.

WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2512.75 2513.00 ...would target 2521.00 2521.25 Bias-down: under 2490.25 2490.75 ...would target 2479.75 2480.25 Signal status: LATE BIAS-UP . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Probing Monday's highs. Again. This morning's 2493.00 bias-down signal triggered late, but retested its bias-down target anyway. Bias-down didn't prevent a bias-down rally -- probing above the bias-down signal during a bias-down environment. Monday's ~2510.00 highs were retested up to 2512.00. But a required retracement back to 2493.00 remained outstanding. The noon hour's dip came within 6 ticks, which is close, but its test remains outstanding. Meanwhile, another rally leg has triggered this afternoon's 2513.25 bias-up. So, there are competing attractions. The afternoon's 2521.25 bias-up target is more influential, more so than to actually test this morning's 2493.00 bias-down signal. And fresh highs may yet extend higher to 2525.25, where we would consider whether a more substantial rally leg is underway.

Tuesday night's open spiked up and surged to attack Monday's intraday high up to 2521.25. Overnight action plunged under Friday-Monday's range down to 2452.25. But greeting the open at 2468.00 was extended to 2520.50 through the afternoon bias environment, was quite different from the overnight texture, and stopped short of reinstating the bear market rally. Ultimately, none of Wednesday's competing influences won the day:

The overnight slide didn't exploit its open under prior lows, which would not have required filling the gap back up to Monday's close, inhibiting further decline. The open delayed recovering back into Friday-Monday's range to avoid forming a bullish Isolation setup. The intraday recovery filled the gap back up to Monday's ~2505.50 close and tested ~2510.00 intraday highs, neutralizing their attractions above. Monday's ~2510.00 intraday highs weren't finally recovered before coming within 3 minutes of the cash session close, which would have signaled a new rally leg underway (making 2525.25's signal only a formality).

Ultimately, Wednesday's session wasn't predictive either way. Which is yet another version of Sunday night and Monday's sessions, now all three lacking predictive value and directional resolution. Fresh highs would still be attracted to 2525.25 (Wednesday afternoon's 2521.25 bias-up target remains outstanding). Probing instead under Wednesday afternoon's 2495.00 lows could evolve into a deeper decline. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2512.75 2513.00 ...would target 2521.75 2522.00 Bias-down: under 2500.50 2501.00 ...would target 2489.00 2489.50 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.