Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... Friday's gap up to Thursday's 2782.00 noon hour high paused only briefly before extending up to Wednesday's pivotal 2787.50 highs. And then not much longer before extending to fresh intraday highs at 2794.50 by noon. Stopping short of Wednesday night's 2798.00 "new Globex trend extreme," the bias environment fell 2781.00 in reaction to a China trade headline. But the final hour recovered to overlap Wednesday's 2790.75 high at the cash session close. Extending higher through the futures close reached 2795.50. Overnight action's new info... A Trump China trade tweet announced that progress was sufficient to abandon Friday's deadline for hiking tariffs. The tweet came only 20 minutes before Sunday night's Globex open, easily triggering a gap up to 2799.50. Follow-through to 2803.50 ended the reaction as quickly as it had begun. Narrow sideways ranging eventually dipped to 2794.50 testing gap-to-gap 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} support. Its reaction improved steadily to attack earlier highs by Europe's opens, then extended to fresh highs at 2805.50. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) We have to wonder what last night's organic open would have done, if not for the tweet's artificial catalyst. Its immediate effect proved underwhelming, quickly peaking within 1 tick of this morning's bias-up target. Recovering its retracement to fresh highs is now a retest of prior resistance, and not necessarily a breakout with traction. The more recent fresh high does now have complexity that the original surge lacked, qualifying as a "new Globex trend extreme" requiring intraday retest. Fresh highs maintained during Monday's opening 15 minutes would be credible for extending higher through the morning. Credible for extending, but not required. Reacting down would be credible for retracing back into Friday's range. A likely attraction below would be Wednesday's 2790.75 high, which Friday's close was still overlapping, and which was maintaining Thursday's Isolation setup that is hanging by a thread. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2795.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2696.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2799.50 would be likely to trigger bias-up. Exiting the open above 2806.00 would be likely to exceed the 2803.75 bias-up target through 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal.

Gap up scares away strong-handed reinforcements. Gapping open beyond all prior sessions during a trend can be the inverse of a standing stop. Standing stops are opens in mid-range, no likelier to resolve in one direction than in the other. Similarly, gapping open beyond all prior sessions is equally likely to resolve in one direction or the other. After extending to fresh highs pre-open, I was able to warn the chaRTroom of the unlikelihood for getting a reliable early signal. The opening 15 minutes of volatility probed higher several times, but kept returning to its 2807.75 opening print. Overnight buyers had not attracted reinforcements.

A buy signal's inflection point at 2810.00 was overlapped plenty, only once by at least 4 ticks, and never beyond its 4-minute high. Its reaction overlapped a sell signal's 2807.00 inflection point without exceeding its 4-minute low. The back-and-forth repeated with 2 more inflection points, and their tests only confirmed pre-open suspicions that an early signal would be difficult.

The sell signal's retest was finally productive, exceeding its 3-4 minute low, even if only by a couple of errant ticks. And its test included the first detached bar. Rejecting the test would require such strong-handed sponsorship that a probe of fresh highs would be in-play. The dip has been violated, and a probe of fresh highs is now likely in-play, and likely targeting 2813.50. (Just met it.) Quickly rejecting detached bars at the low's retest gave us confidence in a reversal developing, rewarding both patience and limiting exposure to earlier signals per the warning. The new warning is more of a reminder, that still nothing requires extending any higher. Another downdraft would target 2802.00, and still require testing the 2807.75 opening print from below before a durable decline could be credible.

MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2813.00 2813.50 ...would target 2819.00 2819.50 Bias-down: under 2805.50 2806.25 ...would target 2800.50 2801.25 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Something big may be happening here... PLUS INSTRUCTIONAL VIDEO. The likely objective to resuming last night's rally was 2813.50. It was tested and retested at the morning bias environment's high, very soon after triggering its 2808.75 buy signal. The window lapsed back under the open's high.

The elements of this setup all but require a fresh post-open low. That's the structural reward, just for isolating the bias environment's probe above the open's high. The calculable reward derives from the interim swing, and measures out to 2802.00. Neither objective is required, especially if another timing window were to probe fresh highs.

BONUS: Watch this 4-minute video description of the Risk:Reward assumptions that suggested selling into the 2806.75 bounce limit test on the way down.

But the reversal did extend down, until testing its likely 2802.00 target. Oversold RSIs there don't require a retest because they printed during the noon hour. The low bounced 1 tick short of the 2801.25 bias-down target, but not high enough to avoid triggering the 2806.25 bias-down signal. Having met its target to within 3 ticks, it won't become unfinished business if left unmet. But it's meanwhile an attraction. More so, the morning high's rejection may yet evolve into a reversal of the overnight rally. Back under 2801.00 would start to signal another downleg underway probably targeting 2791.00. Otherwise, recovering 2809.00-2810.00 through a relevant window would suggest another upleg underway

Globex gapped up to 2799.50 had extended only momentarily to 2803.50. Its retracement down to to 2794.50 was necessary to find sponsorship capable of trending to fresh highs. Monday's 2808.00 open was no more eager to extend than was Sunday night's gap up. It eventually probed higher to test its 2813.50 target, but the bias environment lapsed back under the open's range. And that put into play a deeper pullback, still. In fact, the highs reversal extended through the close to within 2 ticks of the 2794.50 Globex low. It already seemed disappointing to have retraced Sunday night's open, despite having recovered Globex's gap up and extended it higher both pre-open and post-open. Falling through the close isn't surprising, but ONLY falling through the close would be. Extending down overnight is necessary to reinstate the Isolation setup. It had required closing Monday back under 2790.75, but exiting Tuesday's open under 2788.00 would suggest the interim rally was rejected. Otherwise, a new reversal setup would be needed. Meanwhile, Monday's open gapped up above all prior highs, and would want to be retested from below to neutralize its attraction above. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2801.50 2802.00 ...would target 2808.00 2808.50 Bias-down: under 2791.00 2791.50 ...would target 2785.25 2785.75 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.