Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... Despite Wednesday's unusual probe under the prior session's 2829.00 low -- unusual, for developing ahead of the afternoon FOMC events -- the session was an awesome display of the If-Then analysis' utility. The FOMC day context told us that extending so low as to attack 2817.00 from Tuesday's 2841.00 close was weak-handed all the way. And that told us the overly-discounted FOMC news was almost impossible not to react favorably. In fact, the policy statement was greeted at 2825.25, already long from 2822.00 after a failed long-entry at 2825.25, and its reaction surged to 2842.50 and 2849.00. Then the no-bias environment context told us that everything above the 2828.75 bias-up signal was "no-bias trending" requiring retracement. In fact, it was retraced entirely before the position-squaring window opened, and retested into the close. Which also fulfilled the bigger picture context of the recent distributive pattern I began highlighting Monday, producing its third consecutive failed intraday rally. Overnight action's new info... No-bias trending can also be attracted to retracing its 1:20 print. That was essentially 2823.25, and it was met before the Globex open. Its test reacted up from 2822.75 to pierce this morning's 2835.50 bias-up signal, and then retraced entirely through Europe's opens to eventually attack 2820.00. Now a bounce to yesterday's 2827.00 futures close has collapsed to fresh lows testing 2819.00. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) The ongoing pattern of retracing intraday rallies just retraced its third. It was both the biggest retracement AND from the lowest levels. Now an overnight rally -- not an arbitrary bounce, but a bounce up to this morning's bias-up signal -- has been retraced already. Yesterday's intraday rally makes it seem that buyers are strong and willing. But that was a function of the deeply oversold condition that greeted the rally's FOMC catalyst. More important is the intraday rally's complete reversal, and now immediately following it comes last night's reversal. All of which makes it seem that strong-handed sellers are losing patience waiting for rallies to sell. Not recovering yesterday's highs today, let alone trending down to fresh lows, could keep the market on defense into and out of the weekend. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2818.75 would be likely to trigger the 2823.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2825.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down. Exiting the open under 2830.75 would be unlikely to trigger the 2835.50 bias-up signal.

Open's surge rejects bias-down tests for bias-up trigger. The pre-open Market Tour ended as an overnight bounce up to unchanged at 2827.00 began collapsing. It extended to 2815.00, and then blipped-down to 2813.75 in reaction to 8:30's econ report. Firming from there greeted the open at 2820.00, where price immediately surged. And surged. Suddenly the probe under this morning's 2823.50 and 2816.00 bias-down parameters had become a threat to trigger the 2835.50 bias-up signal. Which did trigger, and just met its 2842.00 bias-up target. Persistently overbought 3-minute RSI remains persistently overbought.

Now might be an appropriate time to pause for a message from this week's sponsor, the failed intraday rally. The pattern could be solid, and could be guaranteed to repeat again, multiple times. But not necessarily today. We'll certainly monitor for a reversal setup, and keep the door open to retracing this morning's surge, but a reversal could be delayed.

Back to regularly scheduled programming... Greeting the open back above yesterday's lows and maintaining that recovery forms an Isolation setup. Avoiding yesterday's lows today and tomorrow would target a retest of this week's ~2860.00 high, which exiting the bias environment above its 2842.00 bias-up target would help. Rejecting the setup today would be very bearish, and once again there is no "unfinished business" above. Back under 2837.50 would suggest a reversal is underway.

THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2549.50 2554.50 ...would target 2555.25 2560.25 Bias-down: under 2840.00 2845.00 ...would target 2832.50 2837.50 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Strong hands aren't buying here. Not, yet. This morning's bias environment ultimately extended through its 2842.00 bias-up target to 2856.50. The noon hour's dip attacked 2846.00, then recovered to attack this afternoon's 2854.50 bias-up signal. Which didn't trigger, and was only touched at 1:30 to threaten invalidating the no-bias. This is a no-bias environment, so its 2854.50 bias-up signal is likely to define the window's upper-end. Extending above it would be "no-bias trending" and require being retraced. Which wouldn't be surprising for a doomed rally to try, but it's not necessary. The rally can wait until the bias environment begins lapsing before resuming. And resuming the rally is likely, so long as 2848.75 now holds as support. Even then, the Isolation setup will's reward retesting this week's ~2860.00 high would still be likely tomorrow, which would be vulnerable to retracing the rally from this morning's lows.

Thursday's open was teetering on the brink of collapse. Its pre-open probe of fresh lows attacked 2813.00 support, whose break would have triggered a drop into and out of the weekend. But a pre-open bounce recovered back above Wednesday's 2817.25 low to suddenly introduce an Isolation setup into the mix. And it stuck. Isolating the overnight probe was maintained halfway through the opening 15 minutes to signal the collapse had been abandoned. The entire open's steep slope, if not also the first half-hour, told us the reversal was getting carried away and not to step in front of it. The noon hour was entered at 2856.50. The afternoon resumed the rally up to 2866.00 -- already fulfilling the Isolation setup's objective to retrace the ~2860.00 prior high.

The afternoon's rally originated during a no-bias environment, requiring a retracement back to the 2854.50 bias-up signal or the 2852.00 1:20 print. Or, not. The bias environment lapsed above its 2860.25 bias-up target, so the requirement becomes only an attraction. But a very likely attraction.

Meanwhile, the afternoon's buyers gained no traction for their efforts. The bias environment was exited above the noon hour's range, but never confirmed. Extending higher Friday would all but require gapping up. Not gapping up would be unlikely to rally, but rallying anyway would be likely to fail. And the week's earlier 3-day series of failed intraday rallies hasn't indicated its demise. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here. REMINDER: THERE IS NO SATURDAY REVIEW THIS WEEKEND DUE TO TRAVEL

FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2862.00 2867.00 ...would target 2868.50 2873.50 Bias-down: under 2852.25 2857.25 ...would target 2844.25 2849.25 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.