Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... Wednesday was greeted by an overnight overly-optimistic reaction to China trade headlines that had rescued an early dip to 2865.00, and reversed it up to 2886.00. That tested the rally's next higher objective at 2885.00, which triggered a 10-point dip to support. Its recovery tested the overnight high's "new Globex trend extreme" up to 2889.25 by noon, but no higher which could have put into play the next higher objective. Instead, a deeper pullback fell to 2869.00 at the afternoon low, breaking under the afternoon's 2881.00 bias-down signal during a no-bias environment. The no-bias trending required its retracement, which a very late bounce did after extending through the close. But a retest of the 2884.75 open's gap up remains outstanding. Overnight action's new info... Choppiness has been scaled down dramatically since Wednesday's close, but price is still fluctuating relatively widely. Yesterday's late bounce had extended to fulfill the 2881.00 retracement up to 2883.00, and then reacted down to 2876.00 by midnight. Extending lower through Europe's opens touched 2874.00, and reacted up to 2880.00. Price is essentially flat from yesterday's close. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Extending or reversing the trend will be difficult today if not already underway this morning, before the afternoon becomes inhibited ahead of tomorrow's Employment Situation report. Except for the "unfinished business" above at yesterday's 2884.75 open, nothing currently requires extending the rally to its next higher objective at 2902.00. Similarly, nothing yet requires a reaction down to develop into another downleg. Not, yet. But the two-week old distributive range is still being overlapped, and intraday probes of fresh highs are meeting violent reactions down. Violent, albeit limited by either price or duration, which is only a correction until reversed. Was recent distribution  defensive posturing ahead of the quarterly earnings onslaught that starts next week (Or even tomorrow's Employment Situation report)? Was the China trade headlines normal favorable reaction leveraged by the recent distribution's ballast dump? Then favorable headlines are still influential and could extend the rally in price, but the distribution's catalyst should soon limit the rally's duration. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2879.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2881.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2833.50 would be likely to trigger bias-up.

Upside objective met, rejected. Opening unchanged within a relatively narrow range doesn't offer any attractive entry parameters. Today was helped by knowing there was "unfinished business" above at yesterday's 2884.75 open, which had gapped above all prior highs in a trend. And overnight volatility still suggested post-open price action would be choppy. Narrow ranging into the open nevertheless soon surged up to 2885.75, neutralizing 2884.75 in the process. Neutralizing it, and holding it. The 2881.75 bias-up signal was touched in time to invoke the grace period, and then failed to trigger. An offsetting test of the 2872.50 bias-down signal is in-play attacked so far down to 2875.00. Holding its test this morning would suggest that sellers are done, so the balance of the session can range choppily sideways ahead of tomorrow's Employment Situation report. Leaving its test outstanding could maintain downside momentum into the noon hour.

THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2880.25 2884.00 ...would target 2887.75 2891.50 Bias-down: under 2868.50 2872.50 ...would target 2860.00 2864.00 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Pre-payrolls paralysis. Sponsorship is difficult to generate on the afternoon prior to the Employment Situation report. And this morning's bias objective is met -- an offsetting test of the 2872.50 bias-down signal, for having held a test of the 2881.75 bias-up signal. Having become "unfinished business," 2872.50 was a candidate for this afternoon's bias-down signal. And its test held to avoid triggering. So, this is a no-bias environment. Bouncing back up to or toward this afternoon's 2884.00 bias-up signal wouldn't be trending, but noise in the range. There's potential anyway up to 2881.75 and 2883.50. Any higher would suggest a retest of yesterday's 2889.25 highs. But there's not currently any unfinished business above, and a couple of failed attempts to break lower when sponsorship would have been strong-handed. Back under 2873.50 could get a benefit of the doubt for extending to 2866.00, but probably not durably.

Thursday's session had one job. It wasn't even required to be done that day. Wednesday's 2884.75 open above all prior highs in a trend required a retest from below. Greeting the open unchanged from Wednesday's close quickly surged to 2885.75, where the gap-fill was done. Reacting down avoided triggering the bias-up signal, instead putting into play a test of the 2872.50 bias-down signal. The noon hour's 2871.00 low met it, twice. And recovered before the noon hour's exit. Not surprisingly, not yet trending beyond the range by noon was unable to trend afterward.

Trending is not a job for the session prior to the Employment Situation report.

Greeting an entire afternoon from the range's lower-end, and unlikely to trend any lower, the balance of the session was likely to bounce. Which it did, back to the range's upper-end at 2884.50. Bouncing that high wasn't required, so we'll interpret it as last-minute optimism -- which can be bearish from a contrarian perspective. Resolving up anyway tomorrow morning would likely put into play the next higher objective at 2902.00. A favorable knee-jerk reaction to the news would still be vulnerable to reversing back down through the session. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2881.00 2884.75 ...would target 2888.25 2892.00 Bias-down: under 2870.00 2874.00 ...would target 2862.75 2866.75 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.