Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... Excessive optimism preceded Wednesday's open, from surging at Tuesday's close on AAPL's earnings to producing a "new Globex trend extreme" overnight. The 2961.25 overnight high qualifies as a "New Globex trend extreme" requiring eventual intraday retest. None of which prevented the 2954.25 open from cycling down to 2943.50 at the noon hour's low, with an interim bounce up to 2956.00. Even that had stopped optimistically short of fulfilling Tuesday's unfinished business below at 2941.50. The FOMC policy statement reaction bounced back up to 2956.00, but no higher. The Fed Chair Q&A reaction was quite different, reacting down to 2939.00 through the bias environment exit. Consolidating there broke lower again through the last half-hour, collapsing to 2924.50 at the cash session close and 2921.00 before settlement. Overnight action's new info... Just closing under 2935.00 or 2930.00 would have been a compelling hold-short, likely to gap down to 2919.00. So much of that potential had been borrowed already before the close to make it no longer compelling, creating potential for a bounce. Post-close action did probe 2919.00 down to the 2915.50 Globex action. Trending up relentlessly since then touched 2932.25. A blip-down to 2925.00 just snapped back up to 2929.00. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Recovering 2930.00-2934.00 is big, but not quite a rejection of the overnight break. Big, because the probe under Tuesday's 2926.00 low could be isolated away from intraday action, for which there was otherwise no bullish reason to probe. That's not enough to reject the break, but it helps position the open to extend the overnight recovery up to 2949.75-2950.50. And revisiting the 2950.00 area should include a retest of 2956.00, whose resistance is probably no longer influential enough to prevent retesting Tuesday night's 2961.25 "new Globex trend extreme." Otherwise, containing the 2930.00-2934.00 bounce and resuming the decline would next target 2910.00-2911.00, a very difficult level to recover from. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2931.50 would be likely to trigger the 2929.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2927.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Relentless post-open firming pierces overnight high. The relentless overnight rally from 2915.50 had gotten to 2932.50. Its reaction down extended to 2921.00 before the open, and another 2 points lower post-open. It took several minutes, but a wide 5-point opening range resolved up. And up. Overnight highs were just pierced by 1 ticks. The 2929.75 bias-up signal has triggered. And the 2936.50 bias-up target is in-play. Stair-stepping higher out of the open's range is a difficult pattern to reverse. At least, not before some sort of topping were to develop. Simply breaking lower would otherwise be likely to recover. Meanwhile, recovering back up into 2930.00-2934.00 isn't "half the battle" to recover, it is a separate battle. Exiting the bias environment above 2935.00-2936.00 would help to resume the post-open recovery into something more substantial.

THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2911.00 2912.00 ...would target 2918.50 2919.50 Bias-down: under 2899.00 2900.00 ...would target 2891.25 2892.25 Signal status: BIAS-UP . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

The last one was quickly invalidated. This morning's 2929.75 bias-up signal was recovered through 10:15 to trigger bias-up. It had not extended higher before dipping to 2928.00 at 10:30. The bars surrounding 10:30 were overlapping 2929.75, so we at least left the door open to resuming the rally. But its 2931.50 signal was only touched and not triggered. A reversal's 2928.25 signal did trigger, and it was very productive. Apparently reacting to word spreading that io another break in China trade talks, sharply lower lows at 2901.00 was tested while the bias environment lapsed.

Even if the morning's bias-up were not invalidated at 10:30, it was invalidated by exiting the bias environment under its 2918.50 and 2911.25 bias-down parameters. So, its 2936.50 bias-up target is not "unfinished business."

Meanwhile, rallying through the noon hour has now triggered bias-up again, back above 2912.00. The 2919.50 bias-up target is in-play. Already 2918.25 has been touched. Which is no assurance of extending any higher, and might instead risk having expressed too much optimism ahead of tomorrow morning's Employment Situation report. The only "unfinished business" above is Tuesday night's "new Globex trend extreme" high, which is the least attractive hierarchically. Not recovering 2930.00-2934.00, and preferably 2935.00-2936.00, could be very vulnerable to a negative reaction.

Wednesday's late collapse had extended to and through the 2919.50 objective for the following open, making the pattern vulnerable to a corrective bounce. The correction's likely objective at 2930.00-2934.00 was mostly probed overnight to 2932.25, and then 1 tick higher post-open. An interim dip back down to 2919.50 held the open. The 13-point post-open corrective bounce wasn't Thursday's only rally effort. Neither was it the largest. But it did make it easier for another effort to succeed, having tested and retested 2930.00-2934.00, so another retest would likely break higher. Even then, 2936.00 must be recovered through a relevant timing window, preferably 2940.00. Next higher objectives would be 2950.00 (+/-), 2956.00, and a retest of the 2961.25 "new Globex trend extreme," probably up to 2969.00. Meanwhile, trending is difficult overnight ahead of an Employment Situation report. The impending event probably caused Thursday afternoon's narrow sideways ranging. Not much support exists below. Possibly at 2892.00-2894.00, although it was already tested overnight there weeks ago. Any lower would target 2846.00-2851.00. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2922.75 2924.00 ...would target 2928.00 2929.25 Bias-down: under 2910.50 2912.00 ...would target 2904.50 2906.00 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.