Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... Thursday afternoon's traction had indicated the rally's intent to rally Friday morning. Already rallying 20 points overnight from its 2837.50 Globex low didn't prevent extending through Friday morning from its 2855.00-2857.00 open to its 2886.25 peak. No doubt exacerbated by Friday Factors, the morning's peak held as the balance of the session backed-and-filled through the close, down to 2871.00. Overbought RSIs were left outstanding at the high requiring a retest. Overnight action's new info... Announcing the Mexico tariff deal before Friday's close might have had a better reaction than Sunday night's gap up to 2893.00-2898.00. The instant repricing is impressive, but it hasn't extended. Rather, it was retraced without delay to back under Friday's high. Its peak left no complexity that might have otherwise formed a "new Globex trend extreme" requiring intraday retest. But the reversal hasn't probed negative territory. Reversing down to 2880.50 retraced 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} of Friday afternoon's consolidation range down to 2880.50 (which also happens to be this morning's bias-up signal), while testing the 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} retracement between Friday's cash session close and Sunday night's gap up. Pretty strong support, and it has defined the overnight low. Its reaction up has been defined by Friday's 2886.50 high, which is essentially this morning's bias-up target. Price action has remained within that 6-point range. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Which side will blink first? Which side will become more convinced of its opinion first? The initial enthusiasm quickly fizzled, but the fizzling fizzled, too. Perhaps hovering in positive territory is keeping alive enough enthusiasm to attract a second wave of public/retail buying. Resolving up need not retest last night's high, let alone exceed it -- although higher highs would target 2892.00-2894.00. Meanwhile, extending last night's pullback any deeper would put into play negative territory, and possibly form a bearish "Globex-flip" setup. There is no requirement to retest any part of the overnight highs. But gapping up above prior highs, would require an eventual retest. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2882.00 would be likely to trigger the 2880.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2890.00 would be likely also to exceed the 2886.25 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal, next targeting 2892.00-2894.00.

The retail crowd shuffles in, too. Sunday night's gap up had peaked immediately and reversed back down into Friday afternoon's range. Support was found at a 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} retracement of that range, and also at this morning's 2880.50 bias-up signal. Then the reaction down stopped. Not that the original surge reasserted itself. Rather, overnight action ranged between the bias-up signal and its 2886.25 bias-up target. The rejection wasn't gaining traction, probably because the original catalyst (Mexico tariffs averted) had yet to be appreciated intraday. Firming in anticipation greeted the open at 2890.75. Being above all prior highs in an uptrend, it would require being tested from below in case of another reversal down. A durable decline wouldn't be reliable with the open's gap outstanding. Meanwhile, the 2898.00 overnight high is now being retested by more than 1 point. RSIs diverging negatively isn't preventing higher highs, so RSIs getting overbought would start to suggest the rally is peaking. Back under 2892.00-2894.00 would signal momentum already reversing back down.

MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2907.25 2908.00 ...would target 2913.75 2914.50 Bias-down: under 2896.25 2897.00 ...would target 2889.25 2890.00 Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Paradigm shifting? This morning's rally was likely at least to probe 2900.00 if not also probe it. It was the latter, and 2906.00 was attacked by noon. The noon hour has trended back down to 2895.50 There is no requirement to retrace any of it, no "unfinished business" above that might inhibit reversing down. To a point. Once the 2890.75 gap up is probed back under Friday's high -- if it ever is -- THEN the open's gap will become unfinished business. Gapping up in a trend above all prior intraday highs requires eventually filling that gap before a decline can be reliable for reversing down durably. Meanwhile, this afternoon's noN-bias signal doesn't require the 2897.00 bias-down signal to define the window's low, nor does it require testing the 2890.00 bias-down target. Either is possible, and the latter seems underway as fresh afternoon lows now test 2894.00.

Monday's 2890.75 gap up requires being retested from below, but by a qualified bounce which means originating from within a prior session's lower range. Monday afternoon's pullback from attacking 2905.75 was reversed down to 2886.75. Sooo close, to within 2 ticks of touching Friday's 2886.25 high. Its bounce probed the open's gap by 5 points up to 2895.75. But the bounce wasn't qualified. Still, I wouldn't be reluctant to take a valid sell signal, just because of 2 missing ticks. It would be a little uncomfortable, but sellers would get every benefit of the doubt. Especially closing under 2892.00-2894.00, and somewhat decisively. Still, no one gained traction Monday afternoon, so gapping up or surging quickly enough through Tuesday's open could still probe fresh highs, if not also resume the rally. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2893.50 2894.25 ...would target 2900.50 2901.25 Bias-down: under 2883.25 2884.00 ...would target 2877.00 2877.75 Signal status: BIAS-UP, TARGET MET . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.