Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... Monday's 2981.50 open was down from Friday's 2990.50/2995.00 close, and just above Sunday night's 2978.75 low. The open probed lower down to 2975.50, and soon reacted up to attack 2985.00, defining what would be the session's range -- within Friday's range. Two later probes of fresh lows to as low as 2973.25 failed to extend down. But despite isolating each probed to the noon hour and the afternoon bias environment, respectively, their reactions only bounced shallowly. The last bounce up to 2982.00 went out testing the 2978.75 overnight low. Overnight action's new info... Monday's late reaction down from 2982.00 gradually extended lower to retest Friday morning's 2971.25 low. Collapsing just before midnight extended to 2965.00. Bouncing ahead of Europe's opens only attacked 2971.00 before resuming the decline to 2963.50. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Oversold RSIs at Friday morning's 2971.25 low had required a retest, which was likely to also visit 2965.50. And now that is being probed. Rallying this morning isn't likely without first attempting to trend down post-open. Holding a test of 2965.50 would help to absorb sellers, but under 2962.00 would start to confirm the decline is extending to 2955.25. Fed speakers are littered through the day, and will form expectations for Fed Chair Powell's day-one of his Congressional testimony tomorrow... SPECIAL REQUEST: I'm looking for fresh user comments (i.e. testimonials, comments, blurbs) and would appreciate very much if you would take a couple of minutes share your thoughts. Please email me or reply to an Email Alert. Thank you! First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2962.00 would be likely also to exceed the 2965.50 bias-down target at 10:15 to renew the bias-down signal. Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2970.25 would be likely at least to trigger the 2973.00 bias-down signal at 10:15.

Not decisive, albeit confirmed, and already productive. The overnight drop had fulfilled the 2965.50 target. Fluctuation around it had reacted up and probed lower. But the open was greeted within 1 tick of 2965.50, and immediately surged up to the 2973.00 bias-down signal. Fluctuation around the 2973.00 bias-down signal invoked the grace period and ultimately triggered late no-bias. An offsetting test of the 2981.50 bias-up signal is in-play.

2965.50 is the bias-down target. So rejecting its test AND not triggering bias-down would put into play tests of BOTH bias-up parameters including the 2986.50 bias-up target. We can make that assumption, but it's not official since the bias-down target wasn't actually touched post-open.

The 2973.00 bias-down signal wasn't recovered decisively at 10:30, but fresh post-10:15 highs now offer helpful confirmation. Already, 2978.00 is being attacked. Overbought RSIs might cause some hesitation, but they'll also require at least an eventual retest.

TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2976.75 2980.50 ...would target 2982.75 2986.50 Bias-down: under 2967.50 2971.25 ...would target 2962.25 2966.00 Signal status: NO-BIAS . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Morning's objective sooo close. Testing this morning's 2973.00 bias-down signal, but recovering it in time to avoid triggering, had put into play an offsetting test of its 2981.50 bias-up signal. That has been attacked up to 2979.75 resistance. It remains "unfinished business" that requires being met. Meanwhile, this afternoon's 2980.50 bias-up signal did not trigger. It wasn't even touched. If tested before the bias environment is lapsing, then it should define the window's upper-end. Nothing ensures meeting 2981.50 today, or prevents against a detour down. Probing prematurely above 2980.50 would be "no-bias trending" that requires being retraced. It could be probed to meet the 2981.50 objective or higher, but only temporarily. Or meeting the 2981.50 objective could wait until the bias environment is lapsing.

Tuesday trended up from its 2966.25 open, to the 2980.75 afternoon bias environment high. Of course, the open gapped down from Monday's 2978.50-2979.75 close, which Tuesday afternoon only overlapped until a very late surge*. That's similar to Monday's two probes under the open's low, each being retraced but neither reversing the direction up. And that setup produced the overnight decline into Tuesday's gap down. Tuesday's *very late surge above the afternoon's 2979.75-2980.75 highs came too late to reflect strong-handed sponsorship. Breaking higher earlier would have gotten every benefit of the doubt for extending higher. Avoiding a pullback before extending higher now would require gapping up Wednesday, i.e. rallying overnight. The very late surge attacked the 2986.50 afternoon bias-up target to within 1 tick. That creates room to expend selling pressure before it starts reversing the trend down. Maybe anxiousness ahead of Fed Chair Powell's congressional testimony inhibited the morning's recovery from extending. Now that looks like optimism. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2983.25 2987.00 ...would target 2989.00 2992.75 Bias-down: under 2972.75 2976.50 ...would target 2966.25 2970.00 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.