MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2938.75 2938.25 ...would target 2946.75 2946.25 Bias-down: under 2925.50 2925.25 ...would target 2918.50 2918.25 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) 101 points in 24 hours. Overnight action had continued bleeding from Thursday afternoon's stunning reversal from 3014.25 down to 2933.50. The Employment Situation report's reaction included a surge up to 2961.00. It was already melting away through Friday's open, and continued lower through the morning to 2913.50. The balance of the session ranged choppily up to 2933.50, including a late momentary surge to 2945.00. But the decline's next target at 2931.00 defined the close, which is considered as fulfilling the target, but not necessarily holding it. That kept alive the downside momentum to lower attractions at 2903.00-2907.00 -- and to compensate for its delay, probably also a visit to 2896.00-2898.00. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last session and Globex) Gapping down Sunday night to attack 2925.00 had initially ranged sideways back up to 2931.00. Firming to 2933.00 was blind-sided by sudden China currency problems that triggered a collapsed which had eventually extended down to 2894.00 by midnight. Gradually firming attacked 2905.00 through Europe's opens, but reversed down again to attack 2887.00. Now another bounce has been retraced entirely back down to the lows. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) As we discussed during Saturday Review, 2896.00-2898.00 is a critical line of support to end the decline. It represents the base that launched the last upleg, and anything deeper than just retracing it threatens to retrace its prior upleg from 2731.00 and then sharply lower. Gapping down as currently indicated wouldn't leave "unfinished business" below to undermine a recovery, if a recovery wanted to begin. Meanwhile, there is no requirement to even try recovering this morning, although the 2996.00-2998.00 area is an appropriate place to see it attempted. First Trade... (preliminary indications for the Bias parameters) Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2907.00 would be likely also to exceed the 2918.25 bias-down target at 10:15 and renew the bias-down target.

More so, the open trended down throughout. Overnight selling had extended down to 2883.50 and the open immediately probed lower, extending down to 2869.25 well before 10:15. Now fresh lows are testing 2967.75. RSIs have been making higher lows -- 1-minute RSI diverging positively. But not yet exploiting this bullish factor by 10:30 is likelier to extend down, next targeting 2862.00-2866.00. Meanwhile, don't forget that 2887.00 is a very relevant prior low. However deeply it is probed, its test often snaps back up aggressively, albeit temporary. Further downside would have been avoided by already recovering 2878.00 at 10:30. But its recovery at any time would be credible for launching a corrective bounce.

MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2873.00 2872.75 ...would target 2880.00 2879.75 Bias-down: under 2864.25 2864.00 ...would target 2857.75 2857.50 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

And renewed bias-down target being tested now, again. The morning's bias environment's 2861.50 low had corrected up to 2877.75. That could have developed into something more substantial, had it recovered the early-June consolidation. But the early-June consolidation was only attacked to within 3 ticks before reversing back down to its next lower objective at 2862.00-2864.00. Retesting the morning's low during the noon hour had to recover the interim high, or at least a proxy, to avoid resuming the decline. There was hardly an effort to do either, and the noon hour's exit touched 2845.50. Now another corrective bounce is resolving down from 2959.00 to 2843.25 The afternoon's renewed bias-down target is being retested. Back above 2854.25 would be credible for trying again to launch a more substantial bounce. Meanwhile, the decline's momentum remains intact, and next targeting 2838.50. Any lower would likely only exacerbate the ugliness, down to 2817.00-2821.00 (which would probe or coincide with the exchange's 7{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} limit-down calculation).

[CORRECTION The mid-day update had described the 7{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} limit down incorrectly.] This didn't change the underlying point, that afternoon downside pressure was augmented by sellers accelerating their plans, wanting to avoid the crowds all trying to sell into the close. As a result, the downside is already fulfilled -- or, at least, produces a meaningful bounce in terms of degree and/or duration. Monday's final hour greeted that setup from a relevant level, just piercing the 2817.00-2821.00 target area down to 2820.50, while at least 1-minute RSI diverged positively. Sellers had already gained traction by exiting the bias environment under the noon hour's low, and entering the final hour lower. So, the decline could rest on its laurels. Which it did, ultimately bouncing up to 2851.50. But that was still under the bias environment's 2859.00 high, let alone relevant resistance at 2862.00-2866.00. Sliding through the close fell to 2837.50 Gaining afternoon traction makes the following morning likely also to trend down. Usually that also means probing fresh lows, but at least remaining under pressure throughout. The damage is already done to the rally. A return to June's low and lower is now the likelier next destination. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2861.25 2860.75 ...would target 2871.50 2871.00 Bias-down: under 2828.00 2827.75 ...would target 2818.00 2817.75 Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, BIAS-UP TARGET MET . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.