Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) A China Trade headline saved Tuesday from resuming its decline, after Monday failed to recover its test of 2881.50-2883.50 "lower prior highs." A sudden, steep and substantial surge produced the first hour's 2944.25 high. It also drained the session of both buying pressure and volatility, as the balance of the session fluctuated narrower and narrower around last Thursday afternoon's predictive 2925.25-2933.00 range. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last session and Globex) Tuesday afternoon's narrow range persisted overnight, contained by the 2925.25-2933.00 range, as much as by the 2924.50-2934.50 bias signals. All the way to Europe's opens, where selling suddenly began and eventually slid to 2902.00. Now a brief bounce is testing 2908.00. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Not decisively closing Tuesday above or below 2925.25-2933.00 is no more predictive than Monday's close within 2881.50-2883.50. With one difference: Multiple timing windows elapsed at resistance Tuesday, while Monday's test was only a brief bounce. The organic resolution to Monday's decline could have resumed falling. But the resolution to Tuesday's rally is vulnerable to backing-and-filling, with room for noise down to 2896.00-2898.00. The overnight dip may greet the open there, which could extend to retrace the rest of yesterday's surge, or be attracted back up to yesterday afternoon's range. First Trade... (preliminary indications for the Bias parameters) Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2915.50 would be likely also to exceed the 2917.25 bias-down target at 10:15 to renew the bias-down signal. Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2920.75 would be likely at least to trigger the 2924.50 bias-down signal at 10:15.

Overnight decline finds post-open legs. Last night's drop from 2931.00 eventually extended down under 2903.00-2907.00 and 2896.00-2898.00 to greet the open at 3-4 points under 2881.50-2883.50. That's a lot of selling pressure, and the decline would have been excused from allowed to refuel by bouncing. Yesterday's entire China trade headline reaction had been retraced and overnight trending was relentless. The open did bounce, right into a sweet spot at 2889.50 where the decline was likely to resume. In fact, a series of lower lows and lower highs have extended down to 2871.00. And the near-term attraction down to 2860.00-2862.00 remains intact, with potential for extending to 2846.00-2848.00. Any lower would resume the tw0-week old decline, or at least confirm it had already resumed. One concern with the downside momentum is that a fresh low was isolated between 10:15-10:30. When 10:15 makes a fresh low, then a lower low at 10:30 helps to confirm momentum remains intact. But trying to confirm with a fresh low, yet recovering it through 10:30, does reflect a vulnerability to reversing back up. Exiting the bias environment back above 2881.50-2883.50 would start to signal a bigger corrective bounce underway. But the trend otherwise remains down.

WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2864.00 2864.25 ...would target 2871.00 2871.25 Bias-down: under 2852.00 2852.25 ...would target 2845.75 2846.00 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

And two big downside targets met, too. The open's bounce to my 2889.50 limit has resolved down into a steep, deep decline. The next lower objectives at 2860.00-2862.00 and 2846.00-2848.00 down to 2841.25. This downleg essentially began overnight from 2831.00 at Europe's opens. Enough already? Or, about to get real. So far, the levels tested have been retracements of the consolidation from last Mon-Wed. Any lower through a relevant timing window will indicate that this is a new downleg underway, resuming the two-week old decline. And the slope is likelier to steepen than to simply persist. Even if we knew with a 100{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} certainty today's low is in, there's no requirement to reverse back up. Recall that Thursday morning's steep rally peaked, and then ranged sideways through the afternoon. Currently, this is a bias-down environment. Its 2852.25 bias-down signal is being probed by 9-10 points. Any higher would trigger a buy signal, although the buy signal shown in the chart is really just there to identify how much room there is for unpredictable noise. The bounce should otherwise be ending, and back under 2852.50 should signal the decline is resuming.

Tuesday's China trade headline surge had front-loaded the session with all buying, leaving its afternoon and overnight to range sideways between 2925.25-2933.00. Europe's opens started trending again, but back down to retrace the headline's 2881.50-2883.50 origin. And then some, down to 2879.00. An immediate bounce reversed down immediately from touching its 2889.50 limit. The next two targets at 2860.00-2862.00 and 2846.00-2848.00 were probed down to 2841.00 as the noon hour ended. A bounce back up to 2860.00-2862.00 resolved down entirely, eventually testing 2837.50-2839.00 through the close. Closing under both 2860.00-2862.00 and 2846.00-2848.00 in the same session expended a lot of selling pressure. That's largely why the afternoon only ranged sideways. Widely and choppily, but sideways. Meanwhile, afternoon sellers gained no traction, trading out the afternoon within the noon hour's range. The likeliest immediate resolution would back-and-fill Thursday to refuel the decline, potentially to 2881.50-2883.50 or 2903.00 and 2914.00. The pattern is equally vulnerable to resolving down -- this is less likely, because it happens much less often, and essentially repeats Wednesday's drop but uglier. A bearish WedEX triggered which we'll revisit after Thursday's close. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2852.00 2852.25 ...would target 2861.75 2862.00 Bias-down: under 2832.00 2832.25 ...would target 2821.25 2821.50 Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.