Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Thursday night's 2-point probe above the 2925.25-2933.00 kill-zone never had the opportunity to gain post-open traction before China trade headlines began. The pre-open reaction fell 24-48 points to 2921.00, which held a post-open retest that reacted well to Fed Chair Powell's Jackson Hole remarks. A little too well, already probing back into the kill-zone and above the morning's bias-down signal in a bias-down environment. The bounce was vulnerable to more China trade headlines, which triggered a 53-point collapse down to 2973.00. The balance of the session trended down to test the drop's 2854.00 target by 1 point. Exiting the bias environment under the noon hour's low is a Friday Factor that remains vulnerable to extending lower through the close, which it did, probing the next lower objective at 2835.00 by 1 point. A very late bounce through 2848.00 at the cash session close got to 2860.00 before futures settled at 2855.50 -- recovering the decline's prior objective by 1 point. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last session and Globex) The weekend apparently went poorly. Sunday night's open gapped down to 2831.00 -- down 17 cash and 24.50 futures -- on its way to attack 2810.00 just 2 minutes later. The open's narrowed quickly within the 2817.00-2821.50 range, and I noted the gap's 38.2-21.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} from Friday's cash session close. A bounce to 2843.00 hovered in the 38.2-61.8 2837.50-2841.50 range through midnight. A pullback testing the 2831.00 open as support proved to be only defensive posturing ahead of Europe's opens, which were greeting by surging back into positive territory up to 2867.00. A Trump China trade tweet had helped. Trending higher got to 2888.50 before China disputed the optimistic Trump tweet that had triggered the move into positive territory, knocking price back down to 2864.00. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Live by the tweet, die by the tweet? Trump's China trade tweet ahead of Europe's opens got the market back into positive territory. But did it gain enough ground that disputing it will alone turn prices negative? After the open's spike down, no lower low last night formed any complexity that would be a "new Globex trend extreme" requiring a retest. But just probing negative territory would undermine a bullish Isolation setup. Recall this weekend's Saturday Review describing Friday afternoon's last relative highs at 2862.00-2868.50 marking a recovery's first line in the sand -- it's now being tested as support. Room for noise above is 2877.00-2880.50 and 2888.00; below is 2854.00-2855.00 and 2848.00. Exceeding them or holding their test through a relevant window will be used for further confirmation that post-open action trending is extending or not. First Trade... (preliminary indications for the Bias parameters) Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2888.00 would be likely also to exceed the 2880.50 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open above 2871.00 would be likely at least to trigger the 2867.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2857.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Gap up immediately begins retracing post-open. The overnight recovery from 2810.25 up to 2888.50 had been enabled by a favorable Trump China trade tweet. But its reaction down after China disputed the tweet was recovered only back up to this morning's 2880.50 bias-up target. Three-plus hours of testing the 2867.75 support finally broke lower through the open. A predictable segment under 2867.50 extended down 6 points in time for its recovery to reverse momentum back up above 2869.25. But its buy signal was only touched, and resolved down to 2855.25.

The bias-up signal held its test through 10:15 to put into play an offsetting test of the 2839.25 bias-down signal. It's too late to invalidate without also exiting the bias environment back above its 2888.50 bias-up target.

And there's certainly risk of reversing the post-open dip. A Trump-Macron press conference just began and already triggered a bounce back up to the 2867.75 bias-up signal. Meanwhile, ending the conference without already reversing up would remain on-track for testing 2839.25.

MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2874.25 2874.00 ...would target 2882.25 2882.00 Bias-down: under 2862.50 2862.50 ...would target 2854.00 2854.00 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Stability is not strength. But it can be a placemarker. This morning's press conferences were followed by a favorable Brexit headline, the latter probing the open's high by 3 points up to 2879.00. That was the noon hour's high, and flat-to-lower ranging since then is now testing a sell signal at 2871.25. The 2862.50 afternoon bias-down signal should define the window's lower-end if tested before it lapses. "Unfinished business" at this morning's 2839.25 bias objective could remain outstanding indefinitely if the overnight recovery were to probe the 2874.00 bias-up signal. Meanwhile, a bullish Isolation setup continues forming. Holding positive territory this morning now allows holding Friday's lows through the balance of the day. And that allows testing 2839.25. Regardless of its test, the session is also free to rally into the close, which is the likely alternative to neutralizing unfinished business below.

Good to the last pop... Whether intended organically, or enhanced artificially, Monday was spent probing above the 2862.50-2868.50 lines in the sand that would confirm Friday's drop had held its test of 2854.00-2855.00 as support. We had discussed the organic setup during this weekend's Saturday Review. Room to probe 2817.50-2821.50 below overnight and then recover positive territory before the open above Friday's 2848.00 cash session close. Which was mostly underway when a Trump China trade tweet got that effort up to 2888.50. China's rebuttal could only hold 2868.50 as support.

The post-open dip to 2855.00 was deep enough in time to reject the bias-up signal and to require an eventual test of 2839.25, but never extended lower intraday. So, 2839.25 becomes "unfinished business" below.

Unfinished business can stay that way indefinitely. Which Monday's Isolation setup may be intending, having held positive territory all day despite probing the prior session's low overnight. The setup's reward is back up in the 2925.25-2933.00 kill zone, so long as any probe under Monday's low be isolated, as well.

Monday's late 17-point surge originated too late to be strong-handed sponsorship accumulating, and was more likely weaker shorts throwing in their collective towel before the close. That could develop into something more substantial as only a detour to reward the Isolation setup. But correcting the late surge overnight could become more substantial and fulfill unfinished business below. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2887.50 2887.75 ...would target 2896.00 2896.25 Bias-down: under 2873.75 2874.00 ...would target 2866.00 2866.25 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET MET . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.