Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Rejecting Thursday's night's 3-point probe above the afternoon's 3023.00 high also rejected the opportunity to form a "session-long rally." The bullish setup had evaporated by the 3017.00 open, dooming the morning to fluctuate choppily sideways, and through the noon hour being a Friday. The likely resolution remained down, which began influencing the afternoon's no-bias environment to probe lower. The final hour's fresh lows tested 3006.00, and its reaction closed overlapping Thursday's last-minute 3010.50 lows. Still likely to probe under Wednesday afternoon's 2992.50 low, it was a compelling hold-short on any other day of the week, but not into the weekend illiquidity. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) A relatively modest gap down was triggered by Crude's record-setting gap up, which had been triggered by drone attacks on Saudi oil production. The 2997.00 open spiked down to test the likely 2988.00 pullback objective that was described at the Saturday Review. Piercing it by 1 point snapped back up and extended to 3000.00. Reversing down to fresh lows at 2983.50 was recovered to attack 3000.00 through Europe's opens, and has since ranged sideways back to 2993.00. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Sunday night's weakness has been well-contained, considering both the organic vulnerability to a pullback from Friday's close, and the Crude Oil catalyst. That containment may reflect the rally's underlying strength, or its excessive optimism. The proof either way will be in whether post-open weakness holds the likely 2988.00 pullback objective that was described at the Saturday Review. A post-open repeat of an overnight reaction to news is always likely if the overnight reaction isn't yet fully retraced. Meanwhile, the 3001.75-3004.75 Gap2Gap retracement could be influential, and extending the decline under 2988.00 could next target 2951.00 or 2916.00. First Trade... (preliminary indications for the Bias parameters) Exiting the open at 9:45 under 3003.00 would be likely to trigger the 3004.75 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2995.50 would be likely also to exceed the 2998.50 bias-down target at 10:15 to renew the bias-down signal.

And now it's being met again. The open contained a lot of optimism. Ranging 2993.00-2999.50 through Europe's opens had firmed to attack 3001.00. Its reaction greeted the open down to only 2996.00 where another bounce tested 3002.00 through the first 15 minutes of volatility. And that eventually broke higher to 3004.50. The nearest buy signal was still higher at 3006.00. But that last bit of optimism ran into resistance at the 3004.75 bias-down signal, and the 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} retracement of the gap back to Friday's close. Piercing them by a couple of errant ticks was held, triggering bias-down. The 2998.50 bias-down target had been met already, but not since being triggered, so its retest was likely. It's being tested now, and it's being influential. Bias-down is still bias-down -- even if a bounce limit is violated -- so fresh post-open lows testing 2988.00 intraday remain possible. The weekend's events don't seem capable of resolving favorably soon. Bullish news would more likely come from China trade or monetary developments. Absent either, the balance of the session is likelier to trend down than to recover, already having held relevant resistance.

MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2996.50 2999.50 ...would target 3002.75 3005.75 Bias-down: under 2987.75 2990.75 ...would target 2981.25 2984.25 Signal status: noN-BIAS, STILL TESTING BIAS-UP SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Delaying the inevitable? Triggering this morning's 3004.75 bias-down signal quickly fulfilled a test of its 2998.50 bias-down target. Actually, its retest, having held its test at the open. But its retest was likely, and it was fulfilled. Bouncing from its retest wasn't likely to recover, being a bias-down environment still in negative territory. The bounce's failure produced fresh post-open lows down to 2993.25 at noon. Now the noon hour has bounced into the bias timing window. And into this afternoon's 2999.75 bias-up signal, testing it at both 1:20 AND 1:30 to trigger noN-bias. Not bias-up with its target in-play above. Not no-bias requiring the bias-up signal to hold as resistance. But noN-bias, free to do either -- or neither. The pattern remains likelier to test the 2988.00 pullback objective, which was only done overnight. Avoiding it without yet launching a recovery is optimism, which can be bearish from a contrarian perspective. A buy signal is labeled, and credible for producing some sort of inflection. But entering the final hour above 3005.00 may be the only bullish scenario that can avoid 2988.00.

Even Sunday night's gap down and lower low seemed relatively subdued compared to weekend news, testing 2987.00 and 2983.50. Monday's intraday weakness was even shallower, probing the overnight high by 5 points up to 3005.25, and dipping only to 2993.25. Ascribing the relative strength to having held the 2988.00 pullback target overnight would require its intraday rejection producing a rally. No rally developed. If that was only "ineffectual pessimism," then Tuesday's open will gap up above Monday's range -- and probably also above Friday's 3010.00 close. Otherwise, Monday's ranging in negative territory was more likely "ineffectual optimism." All of that energy expended all day, just to avoid a quick visit down to 2988.00, suggests that buying pressure will be sorely missed when it is needed most. And 2988.00 could be probed down to 2981.00 or 2975.00 just as noise. Not holding a test of 2988.00 through Tuesday's close would next target 2951.00 and possibly 2916.00. Holding a test of 2988.00 or simply rallying would target new highs at 3035.00 or higher. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3003.25 3006.25 ...would target 3010.00 3013.00 Bias-down: under 2990.75 2993.75 ...would target 2982.75 2985.75 Signal status: NO-BIAS . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.