Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Wednesday evening's 36-point plunge to 2882.00 had been recovered for Thursday's open to overlap Wednesday's 2918.50 close. Since Wednesday's close had been the first reaction from its 2929.50 high, opening Thursday back in its orbit was likely to retest the high's overbought RSIs. Firming out of the open was on its way, but a China trade tweet triggered extra buying pressure that eventually tested 2948.00. The afternoon's dip to 2926.00 was recovered to 2939.00-2942.50 through the close. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) More China trade headlines after the close triggered a spike up to 2954.00. Even another spike up to 2957.50 after the Globex open was retraced down to 2942.00. The balance of the night has trended up relentlessly to 2974.00. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Recovering Wednesday's high through the open was enough to put into play 2957.00-2963.00. Multiple opportunities to reverse down were not exploited, and that now includes today's open that would have needed to gap down. The target area is not only met but exceeded, and has support beginning at 2964.50 down to 2958.00. One of the China trade headlines is a scheduled 2:45 meeting between President Trump and Vice Premier Liu. That's late enough to bouy markets in hopes it is early enough for an announcement before the close.* (*Careful what you wish for...) Friday Factors are already cutting aggressively in one direction, but don't underestimate the upside potential that could follow news of an actual agreement, even if it's limited as some trial balloons yesterday suggested. Downside potential should be limited if no-deal news still leaves hope for reaching agreement over the weekend. Otherwise, this rally's unstable base and satisfied targets could find that Friday Factors can cut both ways -- and we haven't even discussed today's spate of Fed speakers. First Trade... (preliminary indications for the Bias parameters) Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2957.00 would be likely also to exceed the 2952.00 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal.

By a lot. The overnight rally up to 2974.00 corrected down to 2966.00 before the open. Its pattern would have been credible for launching a deeper corrective dip, but was also credible for resuming the rally without delay. The rally resumed without delay, immediately triggering a 2970.25 buy signal. The likely upside objective at 2981.00 was only attacked during the opening 15 minutes of volatility. Then it was probed sharply up to 2984.00 just minutes later. Its reaction down to 2977.00 was gradually recovered to higher highs attacking 2986.00. Other than 2988.00, no higher objective or attraction is outstanding. A reaction down to 2981.00 has reacted up to 2988.75. Unless it's exceeded into the noon hour, sideways ranging may be the most bullish scenario through the afternoon bias environment.

FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2988.75 2988.75 ...would target 2995.50 2995.50 Bias-down: under 2980.25 2980.50 ...would target 2973.75 2974.00 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Choppy and sloppy until the news. Room for noise up to 2988.00 was nevertheless probed up to 2994.00 as optimism got carried away. Strongly trending mornings tend to have discounted all possible optimism and only range flat through the close. Fridays often range narrowly sideways at the highs through the close. Ranging narrowly isn't likely in this headline-rich environment. And the potential for organically backing-and-filling under 2988.75 to 2980.50 was exacerbated by a China trade headline that triggered a spike down to 2967.50. All of which has been retraced back up to the sell signal on another China trade headline. While the flat or flat-to-lower ranging remains intact. A Mnuchin press conference and a Fed speaker appearance precede what might or not be a pre-close announcement from Trump. Trending beyond the range is unlikely prior to Trump,

Strongly trending mornings tend to produce the session high. This rule held true Friday, which gapped up from 2939.00 to 2969.00 and then extended intraday to 2994.00 by the bias environment's exit. Often this setup will range narrowly sideways through the close, which was unlikely amid the day's events. This was exemplified by a natural pullback to 2978.00 that suddenly spiked down to 2967.50 -- and surged back up again. And then again by the 2993.00 late high's collapse to 2964.00 through the close. Overbought RSIs at the 2994.00 high were left outstanding as "unfinished business" above. Its retest will be likely sooner, rather than later, so long as pullbacks hold the 2957.50 and 2950.50 gap-to-gap retracement back to Thursday's close. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. JOIN US AT 9:30 ET FOR THIS WEEKEND'S SATURDAY REVIEW.* (*Subject to our technician's availability to resolve the recent technical difficulties)

MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2972.75 2972.75 ...would target 2980.50 2980.50 Bias-down: under 2964.75 2965.00 ...would target 2957.25 2957.50 Signal status: NO-BIAS, BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL TESTED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.