Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Tuesday afternoon's slide to 2994.00-2995.50 had extended lower overnight down to 2982.00, and then recovered up to 2997.50. Another overnight drop attacked the overnight low, but recovered to greet Wednesday's open at 2992.00. And the recovery soon extended to the morning's 3002.50 high. Trending back down exited the afternoon bias environment exit at 2992.50 while RSIs diverged positively. The technicals and timing clearly telegraphed a low, and a likely reward of fresh session highs if buyers gained traction. Which they did, climbing to 3006.00 through the close. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) A compelling hold-long setup -- anticipating significant overnight trending -- was disqualified by Wednesday's final minutes surging aggressively back through the morning's high. So, the Globex open's 4-point spike up to 3010.00 only launched flat-to-lower ranging back down to the 3003.50 cash session close. Rallying through Europe's opens probed fresh highs above 3012.00, only to quickly collapse entirely back down to 3003.00. Now 3011.50 is already being retested. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Mission Accomplished. Tuesday's eventual inability to exceed 3013.00-3014.00 resistance had required a pullback so the rally could refuel with strong-handed sponsorship below. Its afternoon and overnight drop sufficed, except for a necessary timing element Wednesday morning, which its open fulfilled. Having rallied intraday, another pullback today was unlikely before at least extending back up into Tuesday morning's range, let alone to retest 3013.00-3014.00. Now the overnight action indicates gapping up at the minimum requirement. But suddenly repricing the intraday at resistance does risk recruiting counter-trend sponsorship. So, not extending the rally post-open would be vulnerable to backing-and-filling into the 3000.00 area. Pre-open ECB events might affect the open's indication, perhaps pushing price back down. Otherwise, the rally's next higher objective remains 3035.00. First Trade... (preliminary indications for the Bias parameters) Exiting the open at 9:45 above 3008.00 would be likely to trigger the 3006.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 3004.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Overnight pattern repeats at the open. PROGRAMMING NOTE REMINDER: I'm away from the screens for today's final hour. Globex had initially spiked up to 3010.00 before retracing entirely back down to yesterday's 3003.50 cash session close. Another surge up to 3012.25 was also retraced entirely. So we considered during the Market Tour that similar opening action would be similarly vulnerable. In fact, greeting the open at 3014.00 blipped-up to 3015.25 and then began collapsing. Already recognizing that potential allowed us to have an aggressive early sell signal in place. The drop extended to test "lower prior highs" in the 3000.00 area as described during the Market Tour. And now lower lows are being probed after rejecting tests of both bias-up parameters, which had into play offsetting tests of both bias-down parameters. Just coming to within 3 ticks of the 2997.75 bias-down signal would neutralize its attraction. It's being attacked now to within 4 ticks, and its support is triggering a reaction. But an offsetting test of the 2990.75 bias-down target is also in-play. Recovering the 3006.50 bias-up signal could detour to attack the open's highs. The likelier scenario would extend the decline to at least probe between the bias-down parameters to 2993.50 before a rally effort could be credible for gaining traction.

THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3015.25 3014.00 ...would target 3022.00 3020.75 Bias-down: under 3005.25 3004.00 ...would target 2999.00 2997.75 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

PROGRAMMING CHANGE -- I AM HERE THROUGH THE CLOSE, MARKET WRAP IS ON. Holding tests of both bias-up parameters this morning put into play offsetting tests of both bias-down parameters, at 2997.75 and 2990.75. Only the bias-down signal was attacked, and only to within 1 point, where 3 ticks is the minimum to fulfill it. Both objectives are "unfinished business." Attractions outstanding below didn't prevent bouncing into the bias environment exit. Attacking 3012.00 -- twice -- didn't prevent another drop back under 3000.00. The unfinished business below probably prevented maintaining or extending above 3012.00. Now this afternoon's no-bias environment is lapsing. Nothing accumulative has developed, so the pattern is free to slide. The pattern is also free to range sideways. But any upside potential is likely to hold a test of the 3013.75 open, which must be recovered through the close to suggest anything more substantial is underway.

Thursday is the second session to test the 3013.00-3014.00 objective. Both tests were intraday, and both tests held, within two days of each other. That undermines the rally's momentum, and all but requires gapping up to and or through 3013.00-3014.00 to extend the rally without delay. Meanwhile, Thursday left outstanding "unfinished business" below. The morning's rejection of its bias-up parameters had put into play offsetting tests of its bias-down parameters at 2997.75 and 2990.75. The afternoon's bounce up to 3011.00 was weak-handed sponsorship, since it wasn't a timing window that would gain traction for its efforts. In fact, it proved to be last-minute optimism ahead of AMZN's earnings. Its disappointment triggered a reaction down to 3003.00 through the close. That reaction was post-close, so Thursday's last sentiment was uptrending. So, gapping down Friday under Thursday afternoon's 3000.25 low could form a "session-long decline." This isn't the only bearish setup, but holding Thursday's range through Friday's open could extend the range into the weekend. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3011.75 3011.00 ...would target 3018.75 3018.00 Bias-down: under 3001.50 3001.00 ...would target 2994.00 2993.50 Signal status: LATE BIAS-UP . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.