Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Thursday's last-minute recovery back above 3033.00 had initially extended higher overnight to 3045.00. Retracing ahead of the Employment Situation report reacted up from 3037.50 to Friday's 3052.00 open. The 16-point gap up probed Wednesday's highs by 3 points and barely hesitated on the way to 3062.00 at the 10:15 bias timing window. Retracing into the noon hour's 3053.50 low was recovered to fresh session highs. And a last-minute spike up touched 3065.00, already well into a new trend extreme close, which on a Friday now requires there to be an eventual higher close. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Sunday night's open was flat with Friday's close but it spiked up and soon tested 3069.00. Extending higher attacked 3072.00 and hovered narrowly through midnight, already complex enough to form a "new Globex trend extreme" that would require being tested intraday. The rally resumed at Europe's opens, more steeply, now testing 3080.00. CHART If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) In this weekend's Saturday Review, I described the one near-term bearish path, which requires delaying a new high close until after today. Already trading higher overnight, regardless of its "new Globex trend extreme," could still be reversed intraday to close lower. It's getting late for a Globex-flip setup not to be threatening an open back under the 3066.75 earlier Globex low. So, the next likely bearish setup must essentially trend down post-open, falling like a rock. Almost any other behavior would be bullish, at least for entrenching the rally. The bearish scenario is still the least likely, which means that it would likely be very aggressive. A shallow or hesitant drop would be likelier to recover and to extend the rally intraday. First Trade... (preliminary indications for the Bias parameters) Exiting the open at 9:45 above 3077.00 would be likely also to exceed the 3074.25 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal next targeting 3088.00. Exiting the open above 3070.25 would b likely at least to trigger the 3067.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 3063.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Pre-open surge steals rally's thunder. During the Market Tour I noted that greeting the open with the pullback underway would be likely to resume the rally post-open. But a pre-open surge had already fulfilled the setup, and had done so aggressively. Optimism the rally needed post-open wasn't likely to resume. In fact, every initial window trended down -- halfway through the opening 15 minutes of volatility, then entire 15 minutes, and then the first half-hour. But the 3081.50 open only retraced to 3076.00 before being retested. The 3083.75 pre-open high is a "new Globex trend extreme" that does require intraday retest, often the same day. Back above 3081.75 could get a benefit of the doubt for fresh highs, perhaps up to 3088.00. Meanwhile, resuming the rally will be difficult before a deeper pullback to its likelier objective in the 3071.75-3074.50 range, specifically 3073.50.

MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3084.50 3082.50 ...would target 3090.00 3088.00 Bias-down: under 3076.25 3074.50 ...would target 3070.75 3069.00 Signal status: NO-BIAS . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Extremely narrow range persists. Post-open action continues to pay the price for its pre-open surge that overly-discounted the rally's optimism. The last overnight consolidation had broken higher to 3083.75. But post-open backing-and-filling, although anticipated by the setup, has barely attacked 3075.00. It's likelier to touch 3073.50, and possibly deeper to compensate for the delay. test of 3073.50 must hold 3071.75 to avoid becoming a more substantial pullback. Otherwise, rallying anyway would still have the structural objective to retest the 3083.75 overnight high's "new Globex trend extreme," probably up to 3088.00 or even to 3093.50.

Friday's new trend high close had created the requirement for an eventual higher close. Although an immediate and indefinite pullback could have developed, Monday wasted no time fulfilling the requirement. That's not bearish, but now the setup's bullish influence is neutralized. Friday's new high close was also the first higher close from a multi-session range. That's a breakout, which Monday's second consecutive higher close now confirms. At least an eventual third higher close is required. An immediate and indefinite pullback could develop, or Tuesday could waste no time fulfilling the requirement. Having gapped up but trended down throughout the confirmation session, Tuesday becomes more vulnerable to extending the pullback instead of resuming the rally. Extending the pullback is not so vulnerable as to be likely, not unless Tuesday's open isn't already being greeted in rally mode. The pullback's likely 3073.50 objective was finally met before Monday's close. A pullback that doesn't hold the 3071.50 could extend down to the 3043.50 area, and still be very likely to resume the rally. Meanwhile, extending higher would be attracted to Sunday night's 3083.75 "new Globex trend extreme," which would likely be retested up to 3088.00 or even to 3093.50. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3081.00 3079.00 ...would target 3087.75 3085.75 Bias-down: under 3072.75 3071.00 ...would target 3066.00 3064.25 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL, AFTER TESTING BIAS-UP SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.