Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Thursday night's surge up to 3109.25 and 3111.50 greeted Friday's open at 3111.00. The overnight highs had formed a "new Globex trend extreme" which required intraday retest. The open's dip only attacked overnight lows prior sessions' "lower prior highs" at 3103.00. Being a Friday, confidence was high that any intraday bearish scenario would be unlikely to develop into trend down. The balance of the morning reversed up to new highs at 3115.50. Sideways ranging exited the bias environment above the noon hour's high to make the balance of the session vulnerable to extending higher. Which it did, eventually, surging up to 3119.50 through expiration. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Sunday night's open initially dipped to test 3114.00, then soon began gradually recovering back up to Monday's last-minute 3119.50 highs. Spiking up just before before Europe's open's attacked 3128.00, retracing since then back down to 3122.00. No complexity has developed above the spike, so no "new Globex trend extreme" has formed. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Friday's new trend high close requires another one eventually. Not even necessarily today, regardless of already probing higher overnight. Closing higher today would confirm Friday's breakout from a multi-session range. Trending through expiration's Friday afternoon is likely to extend through Monday morning, which the afternoon is not required to extend or even to maintain. The rally's next higher objective at 3135.00 could be decisive to the afternoon's forecast. First Trade... (preliminary indications for the Bias parameters) Exiting the open at 9:45 above 3125.25 would be likely to trigger the 3122.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 3120.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Very mixed open still not trending post-open. Not very long after this morning's Market Tour, a China trade headline triggered a 10-point collapse. It found support at the 3113.75 earlier Globex low. This threatened to flip the narrative 180 degrees. Because, after having probed Friday's highs overnight, exiting the open under 3113.75 could form a bearish Globex-flip setup.

Globex-flip: Ultimately, the opening 15 minutes of volatility were exited under the 3113.75 earlier Globex low, but only by the grace of 2 ticks. Rather than extend down, its test reacted up to 3117.25. The 3112.75 bias-down signal held its test through 10:15, triggering "no-bias" and putting into play an offsetting test of the 3122.50 bias-up signal.

Grace period: Then a last-minute spike down came to within 1 tick of the bias-down signal. And held. No grace period triggered, but only by the grace of 1 tick. The bias-down signal was touched 1 minute too late to trigger the grace period.

Invalidation: When it became too late to trigger late bias-down, the no-bias could still be invalidated by breaking the 3112.75 bias-down signal through 10:30. Also breaking under the 3111.50 pre-10:15 low would have been helpful confirmation. Both held their tests.

Although still hovering at, around, and sporadically under the 3112.75 bias-down signal, this is officially a no-bias environment. And being too late to trigger bias-down or invalidate it, an offsetting test of the 3122.50 bias-up signal is in-play. None of which is preventing the potential for digging deeper this morning, albeit not in-line with the bias parameters, so be careful if shorting.

MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3125.50 3124.50 ...would target 3132.00 3131.00 Bias-down: under 3115.75 3114.75 ...would target 3110.25 3109.25 Signal status: NO-BIAS . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Hard-fought open leaves price ranging listlessly around unchanged. Did the pre-open China trade headline kill action for the day? That tends to be the effect of artificial catalysts appearing on the cusp between timing windows. This morning's headline appeared within 60-90 minutes of the open. Despite bullish setups already in-play, the first hour endured two separate attempts at triggering sell signals. Tests of the signals all failed to trigger, or to gain traction, or to extend. Most importantly, the 3112.75 bias-down signal held and put into play an offsetting test of the 3122.50 bias-up signal. 3122.50 became "unfinished business," which is now being tested up to 3123.00. Other bullish setups were fulfilled. Follow-through from Friday afternoon's expiration uptrending was fulfilled by ultimately trending up this morning. Holding the earlier Globex low to avoid a Globex-flip setup has since behaved as bullishly as the setup would have been bearish. Retracing pre-open headline's reaction was not required but it is now done. The 3127.75 overnight high did not form a "new Globex trend extreme," so its intraday retest isn't required. Its retest up to 3135.00 would be likely if the rally persists today. Even the most bullish scenario could delay meeting it until tomorrow, while the pre-open headline reaction is absorbed.

Price action since Friday's close told two or three stories that never reached their conclusions. First was Sunday night's 9-point spike up to attack 3128.00 on a China rate cut. Then came a China trade headline that triggered its reversal back into negative territory at 3113.50. Monday's open threatened to form a bearish Globe-flip setup while probing the bias-down signal, a real cliffhanger as their triggers came down to a 1-tick 1-minute difference. Monday's open was already being greeted by a story that began with Friday afternoon's expiration rally, which had made Monday morning likely to rally, too. Which it did, fulfilling the morning's 3122.50 bias objective up to 3123.50 as the afternoon bias environment lapsed. The resumed rally was poised to close positive, which would have confirmed Friday's breakout. But after reacting down to 3117.00, Friday's 3119.25 close was still being overlapped by Monday's 3121.00 cash session close. That's not decisive, but it's not disqualifying. We'll give it a benefit of the doubt for confirming, but we'll also anticipate an interim multi-session dip if Tuesday's open isn't already trending up. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3125.50 3124.50 ...would target 3132.00 3131.00 Bias-down: under 3115.50 3114.75 ...would target 3110.00 3109.25 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.