Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Monday night's rally contained complexity that qualified it as a "new Globex trend extreme" at 3132.50 requiring intraday retest. It requires eventual intraday retest, but it wouldn't retested Tuesday. The 3127.50 open was still above all prior intraday highs and also requires intraday retest, but it collapsed and extended through the the morning to 3112.75. Its reaction during the bias environment exit was enhanced bionically when a China trade headline triggered a spike up to 3125.25, just short of the open's gap up. Meanwhile, having appeared on the cusp between timing windows, the headline's artificial catalyst killed trending for the day. The morning recovery corrected 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} down to the 3117.00 noon hour low, and that was recovered to attack the spike up's 3125.25 high reaction to within 3 ticks, in time for attacking the 3117.00 low through the close. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Similar to the intraday open, Tuesday's Globex open immediately collapsed through the intraday low to attack 3111.00. A couple of wide swings produced lower and lower lows to eventually test and retest 3104.50. That's not only back under yesterday's Monday's low, but also within 1 point of Friday's post-open low -- and the 5-point gap under it. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Yesterday afternoon's sellers didn't gain traction, so gapping down is the only credible path down today. The overnight slide is threatening to become a multi-session detour down, which would be considered a temporary detour. Monday night's 3132.50 new Globex trend extreme and Tuesday's 3127.50 opening gap above all prior highs are not the only "unfinished business" left outstanding above. The rally's next higher objective at 3135.00, and an eventual higher close from Friday's confirmed breakout qualify, too. None of which requires being tested in any particular time frame, but likely sooner rather than later if the open can recover positive territory to isolate the overnight weakness. Where this afternoon's FOMC Minutes is greeted from could be predictive, as well. First Trade... (preliminary indications for the Bias parameters) Exiting the open at 9:45 under 3103.00 would be likely also to exceed the 3106.50 bias-down target at 10:15 to renew the bias-down signal. Exiting the open under 3111.00 would be likely at least to trigger the 3114.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 3118.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.

Isolation setup almost forms. The 3104.50 overnight lows were retraced to open almost 9 points higher at 3113.25. My pre-open comments identified the 38.2-61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} gap-to-gap fill's resistance at 3116.50, and I would be reluctant to sell before that printed. 3116.50 printed. And it held. But the session's first 45 minutes only ranged sideways, back down to the 3113.25 open. At least the consolidation was holding above yesterday's 3112.75 low to try forming the Isolation setup, although it's less reliable without yet recovering positive territory. Fresh post-open lows touched 3111.00 to invalidate the bullish Isolation setup. Nevertheless, a 7-point surge in reaction to the EIA report probed fresh post-open highs attacking 3118.50. Meanwhile, the 3114.50 bias-down signal was ovelapped at both 10:15 AND 10:30 to trigger noN-bias.

Not bias-down requiring at least an attack on the overnight lows. Not no-bias requiring the bias-down signal to hold as resistance. But noN-bias which is free to fluctuate, trend, or neither.

This indecisiveness makes trending difficult this morning, and trending won't be any easier until the afternoon's FOMC Minutes. Another dip is still credible if attempted, but negative territory under yesterday's 3119.00 area close is more resistance than an attraction.

WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3120.25 3119.75 ...would target 3128.00 3127.50 Bias-down: under 3109.50 3109.25 ...would target 3103.25 3103.00 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

China trade headline + downside vulnerability = collapse. Opening in negative territory had potential for retesting overnight lows. This vulnerability wasn't going to be neutralized while ranging exclusively in negative territory through the morning's bias environment. And despite having absorbed the only post-open selling pressure, buyers never regained traction. The nearest buy signal at 3118.50 was only touched by the reaction up from 3111.00. The range persisted through the noon hour, holding its 3112.50 sell signal.

Until a China trade headline. Probing the sell signal by almost 3 points collapsed to 3095.50 and then extended down to 3090.75. Doubly-renewed bias-down has triggered, which is less predictive, and more reflective of what has happened.

So much for paralysis ahead of the 2:00 FOMC Minutes. The low is still being attacked, having room for noise up to 3101.50, but still vulnerable to at least probing fresh lows.

We always anticipate price action to become paralyzed by anxiousness ahead of an FOMC event. Anticipations ahead of Wednesday's FOMC Minutes release was no different. The overnight 14-point slide to 3104.50 was recovered back above Tuesday's 3112.75 low to attempt an Isolation setup. That was invalidated by a momentary blip-down to 3111.00 that failed to extend down, and its reaction up to 3118.50 failed to extend up. Waiting for the FOMC news was prematurely surprised by a China trade headline that triggered a collapse to 3090.75. Already recovering into the FOMC Minutes was extended to almost entirely retrace the 3111.00 headline reaction's origin. No traction was gained by either buyers or sellers. Oversold RSIs at the low appeared during the noon hour exit, diminishing its attraction as "unfinished business." Nevertheless, the burden of proof is on buyers to extend Wednesday afternoon's recovery through Thursday's open, preferably above 3115.00, or else the corrective decline can resume into the weekend. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3113.75 3113.25 ...would target 3120.25 3119.75 Bias-down: under 3130.25 3103.00 ...would target 3097.00 3096.75 Signal status: LATE BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.