Pre-Market Open Predictions - 7:27 AM

Edit
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Extending above Tuesday's 3133.75 high to 3137.00 had formed a "new Globex trend extreme" requiring intraday retest. Then a 9-point spike up to 3145.00 made another retest requirement. Its 17-point reversal down to 3128.00 was recovered to open back at Tuesday's high, almost as if nothing had happened. But a lot had happened -- the trend signaled it was entrenching itself, and that its reactions would be absorbed. Intraday dips were recovered to higher and higher highs. First the immediate post-open collapse to 3130.00 was reversed up to the 3141.00 noon hour high. Then a 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} retracement produced the last half-hour's 10-point rally to within 1 tick of the overnight high through the close. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Flat-and then flat-to-higher firming continued overlapping the prior night's 3145.00 high. Rallying became more pronounced through Europe's opens as the trend extended to test 3150.25. The leg's complexity qualifies as another "new Globex trend extreme" requiring intraday retest, often the same day but not always. Its reaction is now testing 3147.00 as support. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Another night, another new high. Shocking. Not actually shocking, as strong-handed counter-trend sponsorship has been absent. And that's the only reason the fresh new highs also be shouldn't surprising despite US markets about to close for the Thanksgiving holiday. Which brings us to the Relentless Overnight Trending setup. Already not assured of attracting post-open reinforcements, in which case the trend reverses, this setup's timing is being greeted by evaporating volume. Reversing -- or not -- should be obvious through the open, or not a tick later, and the overnight trend should either reverse or extend relentlessly. First Trade... (preliminary indications for the Bias parameters) Exiting the open at 9:45 above 3145.75 would be likely to trigger the 3143.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 3140.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Trade Signals - Market Open Update - 10:55 AM

Edit
Not at all decisively. The overnight rally's unsustainability was proved out. Its 3142.00-3150.00 range was retraced by 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} to 3145.00. That was pre-open, and the next several minutes fell to within 1 tick of 3142.00. The retracement's timing neutralized the post-open setup's reversal, having robbed much of its rubber band effect pre-open. So, testing this morning's 3143.00 bias-up signal as support ultimately held through 10:30 to trigger "late bias-up." Not decisively, as the open's range persisted through then. The 3151.75 bias-up target is in-play. Fresh post-open highs above 3145.75 would help to confirm the opening range was not resolving down. Meanwhile, the wild card of evaporating volume does keep the door open to breaking lower anyway, which would be signaled under 3142.75.

Tonight's Stock Market Trading Bias Levels - 11:59 AM

Edit
WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3150.00 3149.50 ...would target 3156.75 3156.25 Bias-down: under 3142.25 3141.75 ...would target 3137.25 3136.75 Signal status: BIAS-UP . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Stock Market Mid-Day Trends - 1:39 PM

Edit
Also: Market Wrap is early today at 3:03 ET. Having gently collapsed the overnight stretched rubber band, the open's dip held its test of support at this morning's 3143.00 bias-up signal. It didn't trigger timely at 10:15. And it didn't trigger decisively at 10:30. But it triggered. And now its 3151.75 bias-up target is met. Fulfilling this morning's target has triggered this afternoon's 3149.50 bias-up signal. Meanwhile, 1-minute and 3-minute RSIs are simultaneously overbought at the 3152.25 high to make a reaction down likely to recover. Both factors are bullish, but each has its limitations. The latter can be neutralized on another higher high. The former is less reliable for this environment's liquidity challenges. Exiting the bias environment back under its 3141.75 bias-down signal would invalidate its bias-up -- especially without yet probing above 3152.25. Otherwise, this afternoon's 3156.25 bias-up target is in-play.

Tomorrow's Stock Market Trading Bias Levels - 5:55 PM

Edit
FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3156.50 3156.00 ...would target 3161.75 3161.25 Bias-down: under 3146.25 3145.75 ...would target 3140.25 3139.75 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Bias Wrap - 8:08 PM

Edit
Wednesday's Market Wrap was recorded a half-hour early and this post is being compiled afterthe Globex open, so it includes a new wrinkle. That is, the entire rally from Wednesday's post-open low has been retraced by a 12-point collapse in reaction to Trump backing the Congressional support for Hong Kong's protesters. Such is the tenuousness of low-volume trending -- not that they are necessarily retraced, but that they are essentially air pockets to any pushback. Wednesday's rally was otherwise hard fought. Relentless overnight trending from 3139.50 up to 3150.25 had almost greeted the open with the rubber band stretched. And reinforcements weren't likely to continue stretching the rubber, since volume was already evaporating ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday. But the setup was rendered moot by already retracing the entire overnight rally through the open back down to 3142.25. So, having gently collapsed the stretched rubber band instead of letting it snap, the open’s dip still managed to trigger bias-up. Not at all decisively, but sellers were even less so. And having no counter-trend sponsorship opposing it, the balance of the session rallied relentlessly. The morning's 3151.75 bias-up target was met, the afternoon’s bias-up was signaled, and its 3156.25 target was attacked up to 3155.00. Wednesday evening's Globex open collapsed to test and probe under 3143.00 twice. "Unfinished business" above at 3156.00 is already deprecated before being put into play, for being put into play during such a low volume environment. The only other upside attraction was Tuesday night's "new Globex trend extreme" that Wednesday's session already neutralized. I'll update comments to the chart screen if any other relevant action were to develop during the holiday. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.