Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Barely touching its 3141.50 bias-down signal at Monday's open wasn't optimal, but still qualified as "no-bias" and put into play an offsetting test of the 3150.50 bias-up signal. Attacking it to within 4 ticks at 10:15 was 1 tick short of neutralizing it, or invoking its grace period. The latter scenario would have put into play an offsetting test of its bias-down signal. And it would have been met by sliding relentlessly from 10:15 to 3135.50 before the cash session close. So, no "unfinished business" above. Post-close slid down to 3131.25. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) The post-close touch of 3131.25 was reversed up 7 points to hover around 3137.00 through midnight. Although overlapping the cash session close, its resistance held into Europe's opens which launched a sharp 16-point drop to 3121.50. A reaction up to 3128.25 had drifted down 6 points when it suddenly spiked down another 6 points to momentarily touch 3116.25. Its reaction has quickly retraced to touch 3125.00. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) My overnight update had noted the likelihood for extending Monday's drop down to the 3127.75 gap2gap retrace between Thursday's close and Friday's open. The drop has extended to actually test Friday's open and "lower prior highs" at 3117.00-3118.00. Retracing a relevant price area this long before tomorrow afternoon's FOMC events creates a lot of room for volatility before becoming trending. The downside limit should be a test of 3110.00 before threatening 3100.00-3103.00. Rallying this morning is difficult without isolating the overnight drop by the open. First Trade... (preliminary indications for the Bias parameters) Exiting the open at 9:45 under 3125.50 would be likely to trigger the 3127.75 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 3118.00 would be likely also to exceed the 3120.75 bias-down target at 10:15 to renew the bias-down signal. Exiting the open above 3131.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.

And its target essentially fulfilled. Down, then up... The overnight collapse not only held a test of 3117.00-3118.00 "lower prior highs" but also recovered yesterday's late high up to 3142.00. Reacting down still greeted the open unchanged to possibly form an Isolation setup. Back down, but not enough... No such setup formed as post-open action probed negative territory AND yesterday's lows. But another bullish setup formed by touching and holding 3125.50 through the opening 15 minutes of volatility at 9:45, making the 3127.75 bias-down signal less likely to trigger -- and making at least and offsetting test of its 3137.50 bias-up signal likely.

So, back up... Another recovery touched the 3137.50 bias-up signal in time to invoke the grace period. Confirming it at 10:30 was also testing obligatory resistance at the pre-open's retest of yesterday's 3142.00 late high. But bias-up had triggered, and its 3143.50 bias-up target was in-play.

And, back down by headline... All of this was developing against the backdrop of China tariff headlines. The last one came after a pullback to 3137.50 had recovered to within 3 ticks of the 3143.50 target, neutralizing its attraction. The headline's reaction down to 3133.75 retraced 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} up to 3141.00, where today's next big decision is being made:

Next... All headline reactions are retraced, all bias parameters neutralized, and the bias environment is soon lapsing at the resistance of its 3137.50 bias-up signal. Any fresh high above 3143.50 should entrench the upside, however aggressively or substantially, probably marginalizing sellers. Otherwise, back into negative territory could start another round of backing-and-filling.

TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3143.50 3144.00 ...would target 3150.00 3150.50 Bias-down: under 3135.00 3135.50 ...would target 3127.25 2127.75 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Nearer the window's lower-end. This morning's nee-jerk reaction down from within 3 ticks of its 3143.50 objective was triggered by a (Kudlow) China tariff headline. It was retraced by 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} up to 3141.00, but no higher. The attraction is neutralized, and doesn't require retest or being probed, so fresh highs would suggest the rally has resumed. Meanwhile, the noon hour's pullback to 3133.00 has held its 3135.50 bias-down signal. Currently backing-off 2 points from its reaction up to 3139.00, the window's lower-end is nearer. More room is available to gravitate higher during the no-bias window. Otherwise, just hovering here or lower until the bias environment lapses would remain vulnerable to another downleg. And after already rewarding buyers for absorbing the overnight drop, having expended so much effort to repeatedly test yesterday afternoon's late high, another downleg would likely target fresh lows down to 3110.00.

The likelihood for extending Monday's post-open decline down to 3127.75 was fulfilled overnight. As was its next lower potential objective to test last Tue-Wed "lower prior highs" at 3117.00-3118.00. A pre-open surge recovered it all back up to Monday's late 3142.00 high, but still dropped down to 3125.50 into and out of the open. Touching and holding 3125.50 had made the bias-down signal unlikely to trigger, offering a very early indication for at least testing 3137.50. Actually, the 3142.00 pre-open high was tested, and the morning's 3143.50 bias-up target was attacked. Volatility wasn't likely to resume until the afternoon, which then produced a 10-point decline back down to 3127.75. Its retest held immediately this time, despite there being no bullish reason for even revisiting it. Bouncing into the close to 3133.00 and 3136.00 remains vulnerable to resuming the decline that would next target 3110.00. Gapping up above 3139.00 would more likely rally, and greet the afternoon FOMC events from a position of strength. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3139.25 3139.75 ...would target 3146.25 3146.75 Bias-down: under 3129.50 3130.00 ...would target 3121.75 3122.25 Signal status: BIAS-UP . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.