Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Wednesday's open was greeted by wide, choppy overnight range. Trending ahead of the afternoon's FOMC events wasn't likely, but trending attempts were. Post-open action soon swung up to 3143.00, then slid back down through the noon hour to 3133.50. The morning's bias-up signal managed to trigger on the way down, leaving its 3146.75 bias-up target to become "unfinished business." The FOMC reaction reversed back up to probe the morning's high up to 3144.50, still range-bound. A narrower 3138.50-3144.50 range defined the final hour. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) The final hour's range had been firming into the 3142.00 close. Gradually extending higher through the Globex open eventually attacked 3148.00, probing the unfinished business by 1 point. Price action was very subdued until Europe's opens began a rally up to 3150.75, which was also very subdued. But it suddenly reacted back down 6 points to 3144.25 to attack yesterday's late recovery high. And hovering there has just spiked down under the earlier Globex low at 3142.50. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) PROGRAMMING NOTE: I'm away from the screens between 11:15-12:15 ET, so the afternoon's bias-up parameters will be slightly delayed... The retest of yesterday morning's 3133.50 low seemed ineffectually optimistic, which is what warned us that the knee-jerk reaction to FOMC would be optimistic, too. Not yet correcting that weak-handed optimism may be undermining a bigger rally from forming. Not maintaining the overnight higher high would start to suggest that optimism is now being corrected, which could probe down to Wednesday's 3130.00-3133.00 lows. Having probed yesterday's highs overnight, opening under the 3142.75 earlier Globex low could form a bearish Globex-flip setup. That correction potential becomes irrelevant if Wednesday afternoon's recovery were to extend through Thursday's open. First Trade... (preliminary indications for the Bias parameters) Exiting the open at 9:45 3140.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 3143.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 3146.00 would be likely to trigger bias-up.

Artificial catalyst saves the day. After probing yesterday's high overnight, exiting today's open under the earlier Globex low would have formed a bearish Globex-flip. The setup identifies a sentiment shift, when one sentiment has been stretched to the point of attracting strong-handed counter-trend sponsorship. All the more credible since yesterday's weak-handed optimism had yet to be corrected. The 3142.75 earlier Globex low was probed by 5-1/2 points 60-90 minutes before the open, and the open was trying to recover 3142.75. The first 3 minutes of the opening 15 minutes of volatility maintained the break. Pricing and timing was optimal. Then came the China trade headline. Spiking up 24 points doesn't attract sellers.

Its timing also prevented exiting the opening 15 minutes under the 3142.75 earlier Globex low. The setup's 3138.50 sell signal didn't trigger but its 3145.00 buy signal did. Fully forming a Globex-flip without actually triggering it makes its influence as bullish as it would have been bearish. What would have influenced this morning bearishly is now influencing this morning bullishly.

That enabled identifying the spike's Running Correction and anticipating it would resolve aggressively higher above 3163.00. It also enabled calculating the resolution's likely 3171.00-3175.00 target area.

The question now is whether a plateau has formed there, including its probes up to 3177.50. That would make the Running Correction's retest likely down to 3157.50. But probably no deeper, since that wouldn't comport with the bullish Globex-flip. The question at the close will be whether the rally's 3165.00 target is exceeded to put into play 3203.00, or another correction.

THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3163.50 3163.75 ...would target 3170.25 3170.50 Bias-down: under 3150.00 3150.50 ...would target 3143.50 3144.00 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Absorbing the shock to the system. Rejecting the open's Globex-flip was as bullish as it would have been bearish if triggered. The China trade headline's spike up was consolidated and resolved up to a similar degree. The setup's influence limited its reaction to 3165.00 relevant support, which didn't break lower until the bias environment began lapsing. No bullish setup is currently influencing price action. And any upside attractions have been neutralized. Friday's gap-and-go is now rewarded, and the rally's next higher target at 3165.00 is met. Can sellers still retake control? This morning's 3177.50 high was retraced down to this afternoon's 3150.50 bias-down signal. The 2-hour downleg lasted was longer than the earlier rally, which is a lot of selling pressure. And still the pullback's low is well into positive territory. Exiting this afternoon's bias environment back at its 3150.50 bias-down signal would be vulnerable to a final hour drop. Meanwhile, one question remaining to be answered is whether the close recovers 3165.00, or holds it.

Did it, or didn't it? Did Thursday close above 3165.00 to put 3203.00 into play, or not. Thursday morning's rally neutralized several higher objectives, both calculable and structural. So, confidence for extending the rally would be informed by closing above or below 3165.00. The calculable objective met Thursday morning was, itself, the rally's next higher target at 3165.00. The structural objective that Thursday morning fulfilled was to finally reward last Friday's gap-and-go morning, which an eventual subsequent session tends to probe. Meanwhile, more recently, rejecting the pre-open Globex-flip behaved as bullishly as it would have been bearish. So, to sort of answer the question, yes. And no. Thursday's close was 3168.00 close was above 3165.00. Barely. And only after the final 60-90 minutes of choppiness repeatedly overlapped 3165.00. A second consecutive higher confirming close on Friday -- preferably above 3181.25 -- would be very powerful confirmation that the next higher target is very much in-play. Its rejection requires closing under Thursday's 3138.50 low. Regardless of confirmation, the setup(s) in-play before Thursday are neutralized, so we can now roll coverage forward from to Mar, which trades at a 3-point premium to Dec. All preceding price references are basis Dec. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3171.25 3175.00 ...would target 3176.75 3181.50 Bias-down: under 3161.50 3165.25 ...would target 3155.00 3158.75 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET MET . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.