Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== chaRTroom is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Thursday night's shallow pullback from 3213.75 had retraced 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} of the late intraday surge. That was recovered completely by 90 minutes before the open. Expiration's influences suddenly triggered a 10-point surge to greet the open at 3221.25 that quickly extended up to 3224.75. Extending up post-open, and maintaining through the the bias environment, formed the basis of a Gap-and-Go. The setup's likely flat ranging through the afternoon developed, as Friday Factor and expiration influences didn't play their wild cards. The morning's 3228.75 high was pierced later by 3 ticks before reversing down momentarily to 3224.00. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) A glimpse of bi-polar behavior to come? A seemingly favorable China trade headline may have helped Sunday night's Globex open surge 3-4 points. But its 3229.00 high contained an extremely narrow 2-3 point range through Europe's opens. Rallying since then has extended through prior highs and surged to briefly touch 3234.25, possibly forming a "new Globex trend extreme." If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Multiple factors require the rally to produce not only higher highs, but also to trend up throughout an entire timing window, and at least to another new high close. This current probe of prior highs doesn't qualify as any of that. Meanwhile, the surge remains vulnerable to reversing down, because Friday's Gap-and-Go setup usually is followed by at least one pullback day, at least through the afternoon's bias environment. And finally, that vulnerability is itself undermined by this week’s holiday schedule, thinner volume, and expiration's after effects might affect that usual timing on Monday. So, an intraday correction is still possible today but I might accept exposure to the whipsaw of giving an early buy signal a benefit of the doubt for extending higher anyway. Regardless, liquidity will be challenging all week. First Trade... (preliminary indications for the Bias parameters) Exiting the open at 9:45 above 3230.50 would be likely to trigger the 3228.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 3227.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Upside momentum has lapsed. Rallying overnight from Europe's opens had extended into a surge that touched 3234.25. Its consolidation identified a reversal signal that would trigger under 3231.25. I noted it during the Market Tour. Its first test held, but the second broke lower. That quickly encountered a "sleeper low" at 3229.75. Being the last low on the way up, its test on the way down could end the decline and resume the rally. More so through a relevant timing window. So, breaking lower through the open suggested that the upside was done for today. Our only clues for further downside come from that overnight sleeper low's post-open resolution. Extending down to 3226.50 launched a consolidation around the 3228.00 bias-up signal that did not resolve. Still testing it at both 10:15 AND at 10:30 has triggered noN-bias. Not no-bias requiring a test of the bias-down signal. Not bias-up requiring a test of the bias-up target. noN-bias still recognizes bias levels, but there tests don't require any particular resolution. Back above 3230.00 would start to suggest another bounce underway anyway. Meanwhile, the overnight rally's retracement remains vulnerable to extending down -- especially as volume and potential sponsorship continues to evaporate into the holiday.

MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3228.75 3231.50 ...would target 3233.50 3236.25 Bias-down: under 3222.75 3225.50 ...would target 3214.00 3217.75 Signal status: NO-BIAS . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

I'M AWAY FROM THE SCREENS THROUGH THE CLOSE. Several observations, developments, and other influences are suggesting that this afternoon doesn't intend to reach an objective, or to reject an earlier failed attempt. And it's not surprising with volume evaporating rapidly from already low levels -- which is among the influences. Meanwhile, you might have noticed a rapidly shrinking premium in the Bias parameter calculations, down by multiple ticks since Thursday and Friday. Another observation was elapsing 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} through the noon hour, without a new paradigm, like converting the positive territory's retracement to break into negative territory. That's not new sponsorship. Previously, maintaining positive territory through the morning's bias environment has rewarded Friday's Gap-and-Go sponsorship. And the open's gap up was already filled from below. Those higher attractions are neutralized. Others remain outstanding, including last night's "new Globex trend extreme" that requires eventual intraday retest. Without yet breaking back into a lower trading range, this afternoon finds itself at the lower-end of this morning's trading range. Ranging flat-to-higher is as likely or more likely than breaking lower, but ranging sideways is still likeliest. Tuesday closes early, so only one predictable trade could develop at the open, which overnight action will identify.

Monday's pre-open surge to new highs at 3234.25 represented both sides of the pre-holiday illiquidity coin. Strong-handed sponsorship would have produced a longer-lasting move than only one hour. And that sponsorship would have prevented retracing the entire surge back down to 3227.50 through the open. Which left almost the entire session to range flat-to-lower -- which on Monday meant flat ranging interrupted by a blip-down to 3224.25 that was quickly recovered back above 3227.50. Sellers had made clear they were marginalized no later than 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} through Monday's noon hour. Not yet reversing the earlier failed rally into a negative territory meant that sellers weren't strong-handed. But neither were buyers. And Tuesday's early close allows only one opportunity for a trade, usually fading an opening thrust if it's even attempted, or else jumping onto a breakout. THERE IS NO MARKET WRAP RECORDING FOR MONDAY. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3226.75 3229.50 ...would target 3232.75 3235.50 Bias-down: under 3222.00 3224.75 ...would target 3216.00 3218.75 Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.