Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== chaRTroom is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) A brief surge to new highs at 3234.25 was quickly retraced through Monday's open back down to its 3227.50 origin. Shallow, choppy, flat-to-lower ranging defined the balance of the session -- interrupted by a very late dip to 3224.25 that was quickly recovered back above 3227.50 through the futures close. The session's opportunity to trend had long since passed, no later than 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} through the noon hour, by not yet extending the earlier rally's retracement into a negative territory. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) The recovery of Monday's late dip improved to touch the 3229.25 afternoon bias environment high. A 3-point dip was recovered into Europe's opens, and then a little higher to continue chipping away at yesterday afternoon's high. A sudden acceleration is now touching 3231.25. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Today's abbreviated session isn't about strong-handed sellers or buyers. By mid-morning it won't even be about stronger-handed sponsorship, but the lack of sponsorship altogether. None of which will matter without an opening trending attempt. And that attempt would be up, assuming the overnight strength hasn't been reversed entirely pre-open. A breakout would exit the open above yesterday afternoon's 3229.25 high to form a "session-long rally" setup that likely trends up through the close. The bias-up signal is 1 tick higher, and could trigger on its own, or hold its test to put the bias-down signal's test into play. Trying to break higher but failing through the open would form the setup's rejection, which can be as bearish as the setup would have been bullish and drift back down through yesterday's 3224.25 late low. Not even pushing on either end of yesterday afternoon's range through the open would start to resemble a typical Saturday or Sunday until the early close. First Trade... (preliminary indications for the Bias parameters) Exiting the open at 9:45 above 3230.50 would be likely to trigger the 3229.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 3226.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

The holiday trade is signaled. The only reliable or compelling risk:reward setup on today's holiday-shortened session would present itself early, or not at all. Usually there's none at all, but two possible setups presented themselves. First, rallying overnight had probed yesterday afternoon's 3229.25 high by 2 points up to 3231.25, which would have formed a "session-long rally." It never formed, already reacted down pre-open to 3227.75. Yesterday afternoon's high wasn't recovered, so the bullish setup wasn't triggered OR rejected. Never mind that. The 3228.50 open suddenly plunged back to yesterday's 3224.25 last-minute low. Extending down to 3222.50 threatened to trigger the 3224.75 bias-down signal. The grace period was invoked, but 3224.75 was recovered by at least 2 ticks at 10:30. This is a late no-bias environment. An offsetting test of its 3229.50 bias-up signal is in-play. Being a holiday-shortened session, totally illiquid until tomorrow night's Globex open, diminishes the setup's usual reliability. But back above 3226.00 would be likely to drift higher. Back under 3223.00 would instead start signaling the open's drop was extending.

Meanwhile, today may be forming the second non-consecutive counter-trend among 10 consecutive sessions. This will form an Up/Down-Crash setup that often resolves sharply in one direction or the other within 1-2 sessions. The holiday's halt may be a cooler, but it is not a disqualifier.

Happy Chanukah and Merry Christmas! Have a safe and happy holiday...

Christmas Eve and other early close are most vulnerable to ranging narrowly sideways. Plenty to offer setups, but only if the setups are offered early. Whether triggering a signal or holding it, an early trending attempt can be predictive. And, even then, the signal may not be influential. Tuesday offered two setups, in either direction, only to range narrowly sideways. First, rallying overnight had probed yesterday afternoon’s 3229.25 high by 2 points up to 3231.25, which would have formed a “session-long rally.” It never formed, already reacted down pre-open to 3227.75. Yesterday afternoon’s high wasn’t recovered, so the bullish setup wasn’t triggered OR rejected. Never mind that. The 3228.50 open suddenly plunged back to yesterday’s 3224.25 last-minute low. Extending down to 3222.50 threatened to trigger the 3224.75 bias-down signal. The grace period was invoked, but 3224.75 was recovered by at least 2 ticks at 10:30. Tuesday's late no-bias environment wasn't productive, as the balance of the session only fluctuated around the morning's 3224.75 bias-down signal. An offsetting test of its 3229.50 bias-up signal being in-play didn't attract buyers. But it kept sellers away. The pattern leaves no predictability for coming out of the holiday, and having more attractions now outstanding above doesn't prevent first extending the pullback to 3214.50. Meanwhile, Tuesday formed the second non-consecutive counter-trend session among 10 consecutive sessions. This forms an Up/Down-Crash setup that often resolves sharply in one direction or the other within 1-2 sessions. The holiday’s halt may be a cooler, but it is not a disqualifier, so trending sharply out of the holiday could gain traction. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. chaRTroom reopens Wednesday night at 6:00 PM ET here.

THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3227.50 3229.50 ...would target 3233.25 3235.25 Bias-down: under 3218.50 3220.75 ...would target 3212.25 3214.50 Signal status: BIAS-UP . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.