Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Tuesday night's initial 30-point rally to 3158.50 had collapsed under the 3117.00-3121.00 intraday lows to 3091.00. Reversing entirely before the 3142.50 open formed the day's first Wreversal Wednesday setup. Extending higher post-open got to 3182.00 before the next Wreversal Wednesday influence reversed the session back down to afternoon lows at 3107.50. Although well before the bias environment was even within view of lapsing, the low's reaction only ranged narrowly sideways. A last-minute dip through the close returned to the afternoon low. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Closing under Tuesday's lows made a retest of Tuesday night's 3091.00 low likely, if not also probing until it by 20 points. The last-minute dip extended lower to greet the Globex open at 3100.00. Firming up to 3117.00 ahead of Trump's national address, reacted down quickly to attack 3092.00. Twenty minutes later fresh lows were on their way down to 3059.50 at midnight. Rallying through Europe's opens got back up to 3104.00. But only briefly before reversing back down, now trying to hold a 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} retracement back to the overnight low at 3075.50. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) The likely retest of Tuesday night's 3091.00 low was targeting 3171.00, and even that was exceeded by another 11 points. Excessive? Its recovery extended higher, and back above Tuesday night's low, AFTER Europe's opens. Its <1{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} net loss from yesterday's close seems relatively shallow compared to Nikkei and European exchanges down ~2{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} or more. Meanwhile, the overnight low coincides with 3060.75, which is a 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} retracement of the rally from October's last relative low -- a candidate for a corrective bounce. If this recipe for a near-term low is going to be exploited, then it should be exploited sooner rather than later. We'll watch for a relevant level's recovery, or else for a retest of overnight lows. I'll still want to be short into retesting overnight low which is well under current levels. First Trade... (preliminary indications for the Bias parameters) Exiting the open at 9:45 above 3109.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 3104.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 3101.50 would be likely to trigger bias-down. Exiting the open at 9:45 under 3190.75 would be likely also to exceed the 3194.00 bias-down target at 10:15 to renew the bias-down signal.

Meanwhile, a big target is met, and reversed. The overnight recovery attempt from its 3059.50 low had bounced to this morning's 3104.50 bias-down signal. Just coming to within 2 ticks was still resistance. Its reversal produced fresh lows into the open. And out of the open. Post-open reactions bounced from 3046.00 and 3033.00 to lower and lower highs, reversing to lower and lower lows through the first half-hour. The next lower objective at 3011.00 was in-play. Which was met already at the 3006.00 low. Oversold RSIs at 3006.00 will require its eventual retest. For now, near-term selling pressure was depleted. Its reaction is attacking the 3069.25 post-open high to within 5 ticks. Exiting the bias environment above 3069.25 would make a bigger corrective bounce likely to extend into Friday morning. Otherwise, the next lower objective is 2981.00. And being the counterpart to 3011.00, it's less likely to end the decline if tested.

THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3065.00 3064.00 ...would target 3074.50 3073.50 Bias-down: under 3050.75 3049.75 ...would target 3039.75 3038.75 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

A delayed effort to extend the morning's bounce. The 3069.00 post-open high was retraced during the morning bias environment, piercing it by 1 tick. Its reaction down to 3036.00 was recovered into the noon hour. Which meant the post-open high was still being tested. Entering the noon hour any higher would have reflected strong-handed buyers. Instead, the morning's bounce didn't accomplish anything not already done. Bouncing through the noon hour to 3096.00 entered the afternoon bias environment above the post-open high. The timing sub-optimal, too late for maintaining that much recovery for that long to mean its sponsorship is strong-handed buyers. This is a bias-up environment, but its target is already met so a reversal isn't impossible. A reaction attacking 3036.00 is exploiting the delayed recovery leg's sub-optimal timing. Exiting the fulfilled bias-up window under its 3038.75 bias-down target would be bearish, but there's no rally requirement anyway. Exiting the bias environment in rally mode would be entirely credibe for extending higher. Sellers retaking control would target 2981.00.

Now, THAT'S capitulation. Thursday's open gapped down to 3054.25 and extended lower to 3006.00. Fulfilling the decline's next target at 3011.00 produced a bounce to 3096.25. Resistance at the 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} gap-to-gap retracement from Wednesday's 3116.25 cash session close sent price back down to the low, its oversold RSIs requiring a retest. Meeting the decline's next lower target at 2981.25 without rejecting it through the 2974.00 cash session close made a hold-short compelling. Futures already extended down to 2952.25. The entire session was spent in negative territory. Its intraday reversals were wider than Wreversal Wednesday's swing. And now the next lower objectives are in-play at 2931.50-2933.75. That's a 50{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} retracement of the 3-month long base that had launched the Halloween breakout's 4-month long rally up to the 3393.75 highs. Last week's highs. No doubt that much of Thursday's late slide was anticipatory fear ahead of the weekend's illiquidity. Excessive optimism/pessimism on Fridays can become one-way trends. Trending down Friday into the close would all but ensure another capitulative session on Monday -- which could double the downleg since the high. The only bullish template isn't very high probability, and still requires capitulating Friday morning to rally into the weekend. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2976.25 2975.25 ...would target 2990.00 2989.00 Bias-down: under 2953.50 2952.50 ...would target 2939.75 2938.75 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.