Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Even initially firming after Wednesday's 3116.25 cash session close turned down as Trump's press conference began. The balance of the night essentially trended down into Thursday's 3054.25 open and extended lower to test the decline's next target at 3011.00 down to 3006.00. Its reaction up to 3096.25 held the 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} gap-to-gap retracement from Wednesday's close and then reversed back down. Already steepening into the morning's lows, the slide accelerated to its next target at 2981.25 through the 2974.00 cash session close. A hold-short was compelling, and already productive as futures extended down to 2952.25 before settling. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Down 95 points from yesterday's cash session close is actually less impressive than the number of sizeable legs along the way. The Globex open's blip-down attacked 2935.00 and bounced 45 points. Its failure was reversed to test the decline's next target at 2931.50-2933.75 down to 2923.50. A 30-point bounce also resolved down gradually through midnight to 2901.00, and a 47-point bounce into Europe's opens was reversed down to 2879.00. Remember the Globex open's attack on 2935.00? Now it's being tested by a 73-point bounce up to 2952.00. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) No doubt that much of Thursday's late slide was anticipatory fear ahead of the weekend's illiquidity. But that doesn't mitigate the quantity of failed sizeable bounces. They've continued overnight. So far, rallies are matching them in degree, but at least 2901.00 qualifies as a "new Globex trend extreme" requiring intraday retest. That's often the same day, which is problematic to recovering into the weekend. Ccombining another sizeable intraday drop with Friday Factors of the weekend's impending illiquidity could produce another challenger for magnitude of one-day drop. Having trended down overnight, the only bullish template is bullish for only the near-term, delaying a retest of last night's lows until some future day and instead rallying after the slightest delay, if any. This morning's bias-down parameters are still being tested as recently as just minutes ago, which keeps the market in proximity for that early productive rally. But look out below if that bullish opportunity isn't exploited by late-morning. First Trade... (preliminary indications for the Bias parameters) Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2927.25 would be likely also to exceed the 2938.75 bias-down target at 10:15 to renew the bias-down signal. Exiting the open under 3043.00 would be likely at least to trigger the 3049.75 bias-down signal. Exiting the open above 2955.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.

Open's bounce resolves in new lows. Gapping down left only one bullish template, to rally relentlessly through the opening 15 minutes. The open did rally relentlessly from 2878.00 up to 2931.00. But that was just the first 6 minutes. And it didn't recover a relevant level compared to the 2872.00 pre-open low. The effort was rejected to fresh lows attacking 2853.00. That was just past the first half-hour, and that's been the low since. A couple of buy signals have produced quick 10-point probes, but neither has exceeded its first 3-minute high to reflect reinforcements arriving. That would likely be rewarded up to the 2833.00 area. No recovery is required, let alone another attempt. Not only not rallying relentlessly through the open, but trying and failing, have only reinforced today's vulnerability to more capitulative downside behavior. Fresh morning lows would likely be the last signal that today's recovery attempts are done.

FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2933.25 2932.25 ...would target 2948.50 2947.50 Bias-down: under 2904.00 2902.00 ...would target 2883.00 2881.00 Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Avoiding positive territory. This morning's bullish template needed to rally back into positive territory. Having failed that, this afternoon's bullish template should recovery positive territory before exiting the afternoon bias window at 2:30. Otherwise, greeting the last 60-90 minute from negative territory would be vulnerable to trending down through the close. Meanwhile, this afternoon's environment triggered "late no-bias" after still testing its 2942.25 bias-up signal at 1:20. The window quickly fell to and now through its 2902.00 bias-down signal, testing its bias-down target down to 2878.50. The bias-down signal should define the window's lower-end, so its retest is required if the window is exited any lower. The retrace requirement can be negated by exiting the bias environment under its bias-down target. Rallying in the last 60-90 minutes from not yet even probing positive territory is unlikely. More so, now having rejected multiple rally efforts only to enter the last 60-90 minutes back at the 2885.75 open is likelier to trend down into the weekend. And this would have extraordinary implications today.

Dow futures rallied 75 points short of 1000 Friday. That is, Friday's last 20-25 minutes from lower-end to fresh post-open high. Dow futures rallied exactly 1000 points from the morning's post-open low. S&Ps rallied 127 points from low to high. That's 30 points into positive territory, but not even reaching Thursday's cash session close during regular trading hours. Their rallies are extending higher post-close. None of which is any likelier to have formed a durable bottom. Pre-open and morning patterns had kept the session vulnerable to capitulating, and likely to reverse any bounces. New strong-handed sponsorship wasn't overwhelming. Perhaps anticipatory selling had successfully discounted the ongoing situation, or caution was exercised during rumors of a weekend tax or rate cut. It's not as if the pattern was bullish. Appearing in any other environment on Friday afternoon, its likely resolution was flat-to-lower. I had a buy signal working only because this week has been a little different than most other. Regardless of its catalyst Friday's low has tested and held an important retracement calculation of the rally's base from last October. Friday's lows are not a bad candidate to launch a corrective bounce. But Friday's "stability" (regardless of its 1000/127 point width) shouldn't be confused with strength. The week ended no less vulnerable to another near-term capitulation session. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. JOIN US AT 9:30 ET FOR THIS WEEKEND'S SATURDAY REVIEW.

MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2982.00 2980.00 ...would target 3005.00 3003.00 Bias-down: under 2949.50 2947.50 ...would target 2931.50 2929.50 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BOTH BIAS PARAMETERS . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.