Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Thursday's 2874.00 cash session close extended down sharply overnight to 2879.00. Initially surging at the open was reversed to lower lows again attacking 2853.00. A melt-down was avoided by recovering to fresh session highs at 2959.00 before noon. The afternoon's drop retested the 2879.00 overnight low. Twice. That's normally a go-nowhere die-on-the-vine pattern when it appears on Friday afternoons. But this wasn't a normal week, and the final 15 minutes exploded higher to 2966.00 at the cash session close, and 2996.00 after futures settled. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Sunday night's wide-ranging volatility suggests the market wants to bottom, but may only be refueling the decline. Its first move was to prove that Friday's late surge was weak-handed, by gapping down to 2900.00 and immediately attacking 2889.00. That was the low, as its reaction quickly tested the 2924.25 38.2{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} gap-to-gap retracement. Its eventual extension produced two uplegs, first back through Friday's close, and then above Friday's last-minute 2996.00 high to 3021.00. That last push was through Europe's opens, but the optimism was apparently fully discounted. Trending down almost 120  points since then is now attacking the opening print. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Friday's low tested and held an important retracement calculation of the rally's base from last October. We discussed during Saturday Review why this isn't a bad candidate to launch a corrective bounce. Overnight price action now demonstrates the difficulty attracting sellers to break lower. Nevertheless, Friday's "stability" (regardless of its 1000/127 point width) shouldn't be confused with strength. Last week ended no less vulnerable to another near-term capitulation session. The purgatory of awaiting Central Bank action might be delaying the decline's resumption, which isn't assured but is widely expected anyway (BOE said as much just hours ago, Trump dismissed a near-term tax cut this weekend). Consolidating at the downleg's lows while only probing its upper-end only refuels the decline, and doesn't create a durable base to maintain an initially favorable knee-jerk reaction to the possible/eventual Central Bank intervention. First Trade... (preliminary indications for the Bias parameters) Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2919.00 would be likely also to exceed the 2929.50 bias-down target at 10:15 to renew the bias-down signal. Exiting the open under 2941.50 would be likely at least to trigger the 2947.50 bias-down signal. Exiting the open above 2966.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.

Passengers are free to move about the cabin. Last night's wide, wide, did I mention wide? range had suggested a malleable market that could continue fluctuating widely this morning. Then the overnight recovery's 97-point collapse was recovered to greet the open around unchanged at Friday's 2974.00 cash session close. Trending from a standing stop is difficult.

This was also the first open between the bias signals in 6 sessions. And those opens were generally beyond a bias target. That's how to import overnight volatility into the intraday session.

The open did blip-up to 2989.00 and then reversed down to 2942.50. The 2980.00/2947.50 bias signals each were probed, but neither triggered. This is a no-bias environment and its bias signals should define the window's extremes if tested. Probing beyond either bias signal during the no-bias environment would require being retraced eventually. Delaying a break beyond either bias signal could extend without leaving any "unfinished business." The bias-down signal just held a test as support, and now the bias-up signal is being tested. Trending out of the bias environment would be credible for extending, even without first retracing to a broken bias signal -- although that retracement's "unfinished business" would remain outstanding.

MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3042.50 3041.00 ...would target 3057.25 3055.75 Bias-down: under 3023.50 3022.00 ...would target 3008.50 3007.00 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

No-bias rallying takes huge detour. Opening nearly unchanged, between this morning's bias signals, went on not surprisingly to trigger no-bias. The no-bias window requires its bias signals to define either end of the window if tested. None of which prevented probing above the 2980.00 bias-up signal anyway.

The no-bias trending attacked 3000.00 before retracing 2980.00 for the last time. Its recovery extended u to 3039.00. But the 2980.00 retracement was 5 minutes too early to neutralize it, so its test remains "unfinished business" that requires an eventual retest.

Meanwhile, this afternoon's 3022.00 bias-down signal triggered and quickly probed its 3007.00 bias-down target by 1 point. This is still a bias-down environment so its bias-down signal should define the window's upper-end. That hasn't prevented a bounce from testing the bias-down signal's resistance up to 3027.25. Reacting down under 3011.00 (now being tested) should signal that the bounce has failed -- as it should -- and also launch a drop back down to the "unfinished business" at 2980.00 if not also lower. Not extending down through the bias environment exit would be vulnerable to resuming the bounce.

JOIN ME AT 5:00 PM ET FOR A SPECIAL WORKSHOP... Especially recommended for newer members, I encourage everyone's attendance (or to watch the recording that will be made available). A brief overview of the 2 basics behind the intraday signals -- Tests and Timing Windows -- will be followed by their application to Bias Parameters and trading tactics. Reminders will be emailed throughout Tuesday. In absolute terms, Monday's rally produced the largest single-session gains for both the Dow and S&Ps. Neither came anywhere close to their top-20 percentage gains. But they were impressive in any case. The 38.2{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} retracement of the drop from February's highs was being tested at the close. Optimism was excessive, which is a characteristic of corrective rallies. The slope and its substantial gains are obvious. But also telling is that "unfinished business" was left outstanding at 2980.00 when the impatient rally touched it 5 minutes too soon. And a later attack fell 50 points just to bottom within 8 points of the objective. Obviously "unfinished business" is not a deal killer for preventing the rally. Almost any probe above Monday's 3093.00 high would extend it, potential another 100 points up to 3188.00-3195.00. Thursday's "higher prior lows" and prior highs at 3088.00-3195.00 is meanwhile resistance, and held Monday's rally. As we discussed before Monday's open, strong-handed sponsorship for a durable reversal down is unlikely while the potential for stimulus or tax cut looms large. Or, until it is abandoned, which doesn't seem likely. And then with the good news behind it, selling can resume. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3096.50 3095.00 ...would target 3109.50 3108.00 Bias-down: under 3077.00 3075.50 ...would target 3063.25 3061.75 Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTING BIAS-UP SIGNAL, ALL BIAS PARAMETERS TESTED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.