Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Monday night's rally went 5{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} limit up at 2879.00. Its comfortable margin above the 2836.00 intraday high had disappeared by the open. What had been a fully formed "session-long rally" setup then failed, becoming as bearish as it would have been bullish. The balance of the morning continued falling, retracing the overnight rally, and filling the gap back to Monday's 2736.00 close down to 2728.50. "Bouncing" 75 points to 2803.50 for 2-1/2 hours into the afternoon bias environment exited that window in a 130-point 1-1/2 hour upleg to 2885.00 through the close. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) It is amazing that last night's 100-point range is completely encompassed within the intraday range. Futures had reacted back down through Tuesday's 2881.00 cash session close to 2866.00. That extended through midnight to test and retest 2778.00, essentially retracing yesterday's last late surge. RSIs diverged positively to help launch a bounce back up to 2837.00 at Europe's opens. Not the easiest time to absorb a 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} retracement of the overnight drop, reacting down to 2793.00. Its reaction up to 2822.00 suggests this area is a big decision point. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) While the expected economic assistance is still dangling like a carrot in front of the market, resuming the decline continues to be unlikely. This doesn't preclude the normal ups and downs of price action. Yesterday's Market Wrap noted that already reacting down into Wednesday's open could test the 2794.00 area and still try recovering again. And now 2 of 3 overnight tests of the 2794.00 area have been overtly influential. Rallying this morning from an overnight test of the 2794.00 area would likely exploit the bullish picture painted through yesterday's close. "Higher prior lows" at the two prior Fridays' consolidations are rich with retracements and resistance such as 2923.00-2926.00, which wouldn't be abnormal for even a temporary corrective leg to revisit. Otherwise, since no deeper retracement is necessary before rallying, still dipping into the open would be vulnerable to retesting recent lows. First Trade... (preliminary indications for the Bias parameters) Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2833.00 would be likely also to exceed the 2842.00 bias-down target and renew the bias-down signal. Exiting the open under 2851.00 would be likely at least to trigger the 2857.50 bias-down signal.

It's time for some ranging. In a normal environment I'd call this a Dry Cleaners morning. Four of the first hour's 5 15-minute checkpoints overlapped the same relevant level (2802.50). That doesn't prevent probing beyond the open's range, but it's unlikely to be in the form of trending.

And that's called backing-and-filling. There are few big consecutive bars in backing-and-filling. Those that do appear are often counter-trend. But they should continue resolving in the backing-and-filling direction.

That direction is down. The pre-open low had extended the overnight drop down to 2764.25. Which was yesterday's very last low before surging into the close. Its natural support launched a recovery through the open to fulfill a target at 2813.00, but the opening 15 minutes only formed a Dry Cleaners setup. The backing-and-filling is now attacking the pre-open low down to within 2 points. A likely objective below it is 2751.00-2754.00. A more substantial decline, or actual trending, remains difficult while the economic assistance package isn't announced formally. Backing-and-filling with sudden big upbars remains possible.

WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2785.00 2781.00 ...would target 2800.00 2796.00 Bias-down: under 2754.50 2750.50 ...would target 2745.00 2741.00 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BOTH BIAS-DOWN PARAMETERS . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

But not necessarily holding. Quite a slide during the noon hour. From 2801.00 resistance down to 2742.50. Targets were met at 2751.25-2753.00, and then broke lower temporarily. Tests of both afternoon bias-down parameters ultimately held through 1:30 to trigger "late no-bias." Translation: Sellers tried, and when it mattered, had failed, suggesting that sellers are weak-handed. Being a no-bias environment, the 2750.50 bias-down signal should define the window's lower-end if tested again. It was tested again, probing a fresh low down to 2741.00. This is rare, but not unique. Either the break is strong-handed because some sort of overwhelming influence is developing that is unrelated to the markets, or else it's just noise. Usually, it proves to have been noise. In fact, the fresh low's reaction just bounced to 2757.75 -- not out of the woods, but trying not to go any deeper. So, what could be of such overwhelming influence and developing on a schedule the markets aren't absorbing? Here's a group of recent facts: Town outside of New York ordered under containment. More countries closing borders. Macron preparing to address France. Rumor that Trump will be doing the same. Some top-level federal health agency meetings being deemed "classified."

As a rule, I don't inject hyperbole into my market analysis or trading. It's really more realistic than hyperbolic to assume a more federally or even globally coordinated containment effort may be in planning. The items above don't contradict that. The next downleg I've been expecting isn't going to be triggered by fear of it happening, but by it actually happening, and it would be done as unobtrusively as possible. e.g. Its announcement would have to come between the NYSE close and the Globex open.

If that's not where this is headed, then this afternoon's low could be a near-term extreme. This is working on being an Inside Day, which would be potentially bullish for having gapped down and trended lower. Meanwhile, it's getting crowded here on the precipice.

[The front-month rolls forward at Thursday's open to Jun, which is trading at an 11-point discount from Mar. That spread tends to tighten after rollover, notwithstanding any other factors. Expiration months are cited in the discussion below.] Wednesday's gap down immediately rejected Tuesday's late surge. A pullback had room down to 2793.00 (basis Mar), and the first hour ranged around it, but never began retracing. That resolved down as the morning began backing-and-filling down to 2756.00 (basis Mar) through the 11:30 bias environment exit. Which could have been the end of it, but the noon hour's bounce up to 2801.50 (basis Mar) launched another downleg. The afternoon's downleg extended to a new trend low at 2702.75 (basis Mar) before entering the 3:37-3:52 position-squaring window. Reacting up came too late to be strong-handed sponsorship. In fact, the reaction only pierced the afternoon downleg's last relative high at 2754.00 (basis Mar) prior high. So, no traction for buyers, they are weak-handed. The 2738.00-2741.00 (basis Mar) close was retesting Monday's 2736.00-2749.00 (basis Mar) prior low close. Like the limited late bounce, not qualifying as a rejection of the decline. What would credit Wednesday's intraday downtrending as being unnecessarily exacerbated. The Dow "extended" to a 20{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} reversal, qualifying as a bear market. Discounting ahead of the selling pressure that might inspire would only be weak-handed sponsorship. Coronavirus was finally classified as a pandemic, but that changes nothing in the official response to it. Trump announced a public address for Wednesday evening, which could be only a national hand-holding session. Literally, weak-handed. Or, Trump's address could finally reveal the economic assistance plan's details. Its anticipation has been the major factor delaying the decline's resumption, since an initially favorable knee-jerk reaction is likely. But its release moves that anticipation to the rear view mirror. And a favorable reaction overnight wouldn't prevent extend the decline Thursday morning. Otherwise, if Wednesday's decline proves to have been overextended, even if only for the near-term, then a relief rally would likely probe above Wednesday's intraday highs. The gap-to-gap retracement range is 2821.50-2841.25 (BASIS JUN), and could be tested easily by a temporary corrective bounce. Closing above its range would be the minimum requirement to suggest a bigger detour underway. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2769.75 2754.25 ...would target 2785.75 2770.25 Bias-down: under 2727.25 2711.75 ...would target 2705.75 2690.25 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.