Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Wednesday's gap down immediately rejected Tuesday's late surge. The first hour ranged around its room for a pullback down to 2782.00. Backing-and-filling down to 2744.50 through the 11:30 bias environment exit was retraced into the noon hour to attack 2791.00. Its reaction fell 100 points in 3 hours to test 2691.00. The fresh intraday low recovered up to 2746.00, but too late for its sponsorship.to be strong-handed. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Initial firming at the Globex open touched 2762.00, but Trump's televised address was greeted back at unchanged around 2728.00. It triggered a 1-hour slide to new lows at 2595.50 just several points from limit down. Consolidating through midnight eventually bounced to attack 2670.00, but trending back down greeted Europe's opens back near the earlier low, on the way to a floor at 2589.50. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) [The front-month rolls forward at Thursday's open to Jun.] I've never seen a limit down or limit up market mark a trend extreme. Or a second one, which is greeting today's open. Last night's drop confirms that Wednesday's intraday downtrending wasn't excessive pessimism, and that the recent lows weren't the end of it. The same can be said of what's to come today, and probably also tomorrow and Sunday night. Trump's new virus safeguards have dropped another shoe. That that doesn't ensure stricter U.S. safeguards won't be enacted sooner rather than later. So, anticipation for the mythical economic assistance package announcement is having less effect inhibiting sellers, and will be irrelevant to price action once it's in the market's rear view mirror. More trial balloons and an actual final proposal would still trigger an initially favorable knee-jerk reaction. Meanwhile, bounces or backing-and-filling are possible after/if today's initial limits and halts find a level like Monday, but probably not a recovery. And any gap down under all prior lows will require being filled from above before a recovery would be credible for extending. First Trade... (preliminary indications for the Bias parameters) This morning's bias parameters are far above current levels.

And two limit downs, but still finds buyers. Last night's 5{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} limit down at 2589.50 went to its 7{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} collar at the open, and re-opening at 2526.00 extended down to 2479.75. Then almost as quickly as Monday's similar structure, its reaction retraced the initial open up to 2575.00. Retracing down to 2515.00 was eventually entirely recovered. At least, all but 4 points of "errant ticks" back up to 2571.00. Now the original pullback low is being tested down to 2512.00. There's no bullish reason to have retraced the earlier pullback low, and extending down back under 2517.00 would next target 2497.00. Back above 2551.00 would start getting a benefit of the doubt that fresh post-open highs at 2581.00 and 2588.00 are in-play. They were targeted by the earlier bounce before violating its pullback limit. If tested, the resolution should be very predictive going forward. And if the decline remains intact into Friday, then regardless of another bounce, today's lows have yet to be seen.

THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2536.00 2522.00 ...would target 2559.25 2545.25 Bias-down: under 2511.00 2497.00 ...would target 2488.50 2484.50 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED, TESTED BIAS-DOWN PARAMETERS . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

A funny thing happened on the way to fresh session lows. The noon hour attacked the open's 2479.75 low down to 2483.25 and ranged sideways, on the precipice of extending lower. A $4 trillion Fed repo was able to trigger a 15-minute 160-point rally back into the overnight range up to 2647.50.

Astonishing. More so for the market's pliability, less for its directional change. This means that can cut both ways. And it did.

The reaction ultimately peaked within 3 points (the new 3 ticks?) of the 2650.50 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} gap-to-gap retracement from yesterday's cash session close. And being a knee-jerk reaction to a headline, at least a 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} retracement was likely to 2553.00. It was met by a 15-minute 94-point plunge. Room for noise was fully tested down to 2511.00. Being a bias-up environment, its 2522.00 bias-up signal required being recovered, and has been, now testing 2555.50. Back above 2560.00 would start to signal potential for retesting the reaction's peak. Back under 2525.25 would start to signal the surge was a detour. And that could extend to the 2371.00 13{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} collar before the close.

Don't expect to see this again:

Limit down overnight greeted the open immediately triggering its 7{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} limit down halt. Re-opening lower hardly exploited its room for extending to a 13{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} limit before bouncing sharply. And eventually the open's low was retested.

Sounds like Thursday, right? Actually, that was Monday. Similar setups that appear sequentially resolve differently. Despite Thursday tracking the same path initially, its path was required to deviate at some point. Before the open we expected the likeliest deviation to be a late-afternoon melt-down. And even with the midday surprise Fed repo triggering a ~150-point surge up to 2647.50 couldn't stop the pattern. The balance of the afternoon still returned to the low and then melted down another 93 points to 2433.75. Extending Thursday's collapse into Friday's open would be equally vulnerable to extend lower through the morning, since Thursday afternoon's sellers gained traction for their efforts. Extending down during Friday afternoon would likely extend lower into and out of the weekend. Bouncing into Friday's open -- short of Thursday afternoon's 2568.00 high -- would likely probe fresh lows intraday, and potentially extend the drop into and out of the weekend. So, a patient retest of the lows could form a better bottom. It's possible. But I suspect that's less likely ahead of the weekend's illiquidity, and likelier ahead of next week's FOMC meeting and expiration. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 1498.00 2484.00 ...would target 2528.00 2514.00 Bias-down: under 2441.00 2427.00 ...would target 2423.50 2409.50 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.