Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Monday night's limit-up at 2333.50 was approached tentatively, not met until very near Tuesday's open. That restrained optimism is potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective. Extending higher intraday was likely to be aggressive, and potentially substantial. That insight made an early entry compelling at 2350.50, which extended immediately up to 2378.00. The noon hour's 2427.25 high reacted down 81 points to the afternoon's low, and yet still recovered to new session high at 2440.75 through the close. Potential to 2441.00 objective and a 10{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} day were largely fulfilled.. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Tuesday's recovery extended up to 2470.00 through the first hour of Globex. Flat-to-lower ranging looked ready to break lower at midnight, but quickly bounced off of 2386.00 to attack 2442.00. Presumably, that was in reaction to advance word of a Senate deal. Reacting down momentarily to 2391.00 was recovered by a rally to fresh highs at 2498.00. RSIs diverged negatively there to retrace the upleg's origin back into negative territory at 2398.00 where the deal was presumably done. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) BUY THE RUMOR, SELL THE NEWS? We'll soon learn an explanation for already reversing from the overnight high. Its earlier rally did seem to begin grudgingly. Perhaps Speaker Pelosi is still a sticking point, or its reported $2 trillion price tag is so much less than the $6 trillion that Mnuchin had mentioned yesterday. But clearly, rallying today no matter how high doesn't ensure closing higher, too. And closing higher today is the only setup that would require any eventual higher close after today. Perhaps this overnight reversal down now allows a post-open favorable knee-jerk reaction up. Regardless, greeting the open back in negative territory would have only a very brief window to launch any sort of rally to avoid extending lower. Bear market rallies are often substantial and brief, and reversing down today will remain a risk regardless of intraday price action. First Trade... (preliminary indications for the Bias parameters) Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2395.50 would be likely to trigger the 2405.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2421.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down. Exiting the open under 2448.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2461.25 bias-up signal.

Most recently held a test of the bias-down signal. RESET. The overnight reaction down from 2498.00 eventually retraced to within 1 point of the 2386.00 low preceding the Senate deal's news. Bouncing pre-open to 2448.00 allowed a post-open dip room down to 2415.50-2421.00. REPEAT. Touching the pullback room's upper-end at 2420.75 gave the intraday crowd their chance for an initially favorable knee-jerk reaction up. Market Tour described this setup, along with the intraday crowd's opportunity to "sell the news." Which they did, from 2486.00 down to 2393.50. REBUY. Invoking the grace period ultimately held the 2405.00 bias-down signal through 10:30. An offsetting test of the 2461.25 bias-up signal is now underway up to 2447.25, despite already having tested it through the open. It becomes "unfinished business" if left outstanding. But this being a late bias signal, and already having tested its objective earlier, exiting the bias environment back under its bias-down signal would invalidate the higher objective. REVERSE. Triggering any sell signal after the bias environment begins lapsing at 11:30 would be credible for triggering a probe under the overnight low. This could develop into something deeper, which we'll consider at the time.

WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2485.25 2473.25 ...would target 2504.50 2492.50 Bias-down: under 2446.50 2434.50 ...would target 2423.50 2411.50 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Halfway there? Trending almost straight up from this morning's pullback to 2393.50 has recovered the overnight and open's 2486.00-2498.00 highs, up to 2557.00 That's far above this afternoon's 2473.25/2492.50 bias-up parameters. Dipping back down under 2504.00 would start signaling a test of the afternoon's 2473.25/2492.50 bias-up parameters as support. Extending the rally instead could rival yesterday's performance, whether its 100-110 post-open lower to high, or the actual 215-220 point close-to-close. As more and more sponsorship grasps this being day-2 of a multi-session rally -- the first 2-day rally in awhile -- the mass psychology point of reference will try to duplicate the immediately prior session. That's 2503.00 (already met), 2543.00 (being probed now), up to 2650.00 (doubling the post-open run, so far). Nothing requires extending any higher at all. Extending any higher largely depends on continuing to trend, and not pausing for a pullback of much depth and time. And don't forget this environment's sensitivity to headlines regarding Congress' latest virus assistance bill.

The market focus quickly shifted from "how quickly we gonna get them checks" to "which month y'all planning to have that there vote?" The morning's rally into the afternoon bias environment was blind-sided by news of a drafting error in the Senate virus assistance bill. Its reaction down held above prior highs, but killed the rally's momentum. Creeping higher into the final hour was also blind-sided by a Senator Sanders tweet that wasn't very bipartisan. Its reaction was more substantial, but still closed positive to confirm Tuesday's breakout. Overbought RSIs at the high will require an eventual retest, like the oversold RSIs at Monday's low. Retesting Wednesday's high first is likelier since the late collapse originated too late to be sponsored by strong hands. Trending down much deeper overnight is still possible if the surprising news were to develop into something more obstructive. A 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} gap-to-gap retracement from Monday's close, or a retest of Monday's lows, wouldn't yet signal the decline is resuming. And the context of Tuesday's now-confirmed breakout suggests that a close above Wednesday's high is eventually required. Maybe the misunderstanding will be resolved before Thursday's open. So, where's my check? See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2500.00 2488.00 ...would target 2526.00 2514.00 Bias-down: under 2456.75 2444.75 ...would target 2437.25 2425.25 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.