Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Two overnight false starts had attacked 2500.00 and 2490.00 before Wednesday morning's probe 40 points into negative territory at 2393.50. Another rally into the afternoon bias environment got up to 2560.75 before it was blind-sided by the Senate bill drafting error news. Reacting down held above prior highs, but the rally's momentum struggled to recover. Firming up to 2552.25 was blind-sided again by Senator Sanders. The last 15 minutes collapsed down to 2454.25, but still closed positive to confirm Tuesday's breakout. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Early choppiness got up to 2497.50, 15 points short of retracing even 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} of Wednesday's late headline reaction. Reversing back down has only probed lower and lower lows. This is despite Senators somehow having resolved the differences that ended yesterday's rally, and passing their emergency funding for the Kennedy Center For Performing Arts, I mean for the virus assistance bill. Eventually reaching as low as 2412.00 has now recovered to attack 2452.00, still under the collapse's low. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Yesterday's late crash-and-BernieTM is ignoring a prominent rule of market behavior. That is, last-minute breakouts from an afternoon trading ranging tend to be corrected by 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6}, if not retraced entirely. At least, so far. Perhaps its recovery is only being delayed until this morning, and its delay will be compensated by probing above the collapse's 2550.00 origin. Perhaps. I would have expected last night's Senate vote to be a sufficient catalyst, but the market is now 100 points lower. Also 110 points lower than the noon hour high's overbought RSIs that require an eventual retest (like the oversold RSIs at Monday's low). Not triggering this morning's bias-down signal should start a process of recovering today. Otherwise, even if resuming the recovery were 100{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} assured, it could still be delayed for a day. Extending Bernie's crash this morning could slip into an air pocket down to the 2266.50-2297.00 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} gap-to-gap retracement from Monday's close. News would have to become pretty bad to justify testing the next lower objective at Monday's 2174.00-2179.50 lows. First Trade... (preliminary indications for the Bias parameters) Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2450.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2444.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2437.50 would be likely to trigger bias-down. Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2417.75 would be likely also to exceed the 2425.25 bias-down target at 10:15 to renew the bias-down signal.

Fully recovered yesterday's Crash-and-BernieTM. Maybe the continued overnight weakness wasn't about the Senate deal, at all. Perhaps it was in sentimental deference to this morning's worst ever Jobless Claims report. Widely expected, but still a shock that could inhibit buyers. Anyway, the report's knee-jerk reaction down attacked 2402.00 and then snapped back up to attack 2442.00. The recovery extended to attack the earlier overnight high up to 2496.00 before the 2493.00 open. More than retrace all of yesterday's late collapse, trending straight up since the open has probed above yesterday's noon hour high to 2573.00. Actually resuming yesterday's rally would be the delay's only other compensation, but yesterday's highs are meanwhile offering resistance. Post-open pivotal uptrending support is now being tested. Its break would target a deeper pullback down to 2493.00, potentially even the gap-to-gap retracement at 2477.00-2482.50. The rally is meanwhile free to resume at any time.  

THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2603.75 2592.50 ...would target 2622.25 2611.00 Bias-down: under 2571.25 2560.00 ...would target 2556.25 2545.00 Signal status: noN-BIAS, STILL TESTING BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Bouncing off of higher highs. The ultimate reward for this morning's buyers was to probe 30 points above yesterday's high up to 2591.00. That was incidental to sideways ranging that began developing before entering the noon hour. And its reaction down to 2563.00 was recovered to momentarily probe a fresh high. That fresh high was isolated between the noon hour exit and the bias environment entry. It resolved down to fresh pullback lows. Despite not triggering bias-down -- only noN-bias for still testing the bias-down signal at both 1:20 and 1:30 -- the 2545.00 bias-down target is now met. And despite this being noN-bias, the bias-down parameters are being influential. The target's reaction is bouncing back up to the 2560.00 bias-down signal, which is now resistance. Its recovery could reinstate the rally, but back under 2443.00 would more likely extend the afternoon's pullback.

Wednesday's late Crash-and-BernieTM (last time, I promise) down to 2454.00 had originated so late that its correction or retracement was likely. That didn't prevent extending down overnight to greet the record-setting Jobless Claims at 2402.00. Snapping up extended sharply through Thursday's first hour to probe Wednesday's high by 12 points up to 2573.00. Extending through the noon hour up to 2591.00 only ranged sideways until a last-minute MOC surge attacked 2626.00. No different than Wednesday's late collapse, Thursday's last-minute surge originated so late that its correction or retracement is likely. Whether only by 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} down to 2588.00, or fully retracing its 2566.00 origin, the rally could resume and extend. Being a late breakout in the trend's direction, extending higher through Friday's open would all but ensure another higher high intraday. Friday Factors could influence early strength into a short-squeeze. Otherwise, the late breakout is vulnerable to having stretched the rubber band to snap back down. Thursday fulfilled the minimum requirement of Tuesday's confirmed breakout of the downtrending Channel for an eventual higher close. And having trended up into Thursday's close, gapping under its 2545.00 afternoon low could even form a session-long decline See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2632.50 2621.50 ...would target 2655.75 2644.50 Bias-down: under 2595.00 2583.75 ...would target 2577.25 2566.00 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.