Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Trending up 42 points overnight got to 2502.00 but still greeted Thursday's open in decline. Jobless Claims triggered a collapse collapsing from 2490.00 to 2425.00. Reversing up sharply through the open was extended to fresh highs at 2523.00. Maintaining the recovery through the morning bias environment created a position of strength. And that enabled recovering from an afternoon dip to 2456.00 through the afternoon bias environment, back up to fresh highs at 2525.00. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Thursday's late surge initially consolidated through the Globex open, before sliding down to 2474.00 through midnight. Relatively narrow sideways ranging back up to 2500.00 has persisted through Europe's opens. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Thursday's steep afternoon recovery only retested the morning's high, which is not excessive optimism. Last night's shallow retracement wasn't too pessimistic. Limited sentiment greeting this morning's Employment Situation report reflects a patient market waiting to put the news in its rear view mirror. But for an initial reaction and momentary post-open follow-through, the balance of the session will be influenced more by usual Friday Factors as weekend illiquidity fast approaches. The premise of a completed pullback from Tuesday morning's high can be negated by not quickly recovering a knee-jerk reaction down. First Trade... (9:45 preliminary indications for the 10:15 Bias parameters) Not preliminary indications are considered before Employment Situation reports.

Sound and fury, signifying nothing. Please don't search the first half of that quote, thank you. As for the sound and fury, the Employment Situation report came after a surge through 2498.00 had retested yesterday's highs attacking 2527.00. The news accelerated its retracement down to 2486.00, which snapped back up to attack 2518.00. Volatility after the payrolls report isn't surprising. Actually surprising was the volatility remaining within yesterday's range. My pre-open comments had warned of the potential for this morning to lack trending. The bigger risk became not touching either bias signal, so not putting into play an objective. Post-open action probed fresh highs up to 2529.50 and still reversed back down into the range. Its reaction down met its target, and another sell signal has extended lower to attack 2484.00. That's under the 2497.50 bias-down signal, AFTER having held to trigger no-bias. Probing under it during a no-bias environment is "no-bias trending" that requires being retraced. The decline could extend or resume, but this morning's no-bias trending doesn't itself suggest that sellers are strong-handed.

FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2498.00 2488.00 ...would target 2524.00 2514.00 Bias-down: under 2476.00 2466.00 ...would target 2460.50 2450.50 Signal status: NO-BIAS INVALIDATED, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Slowly dragging lower. This morning's 2497.50 bias-down signal hadn't even been touched when no-bias triggered at 10:15. And it was only overlapped at 10:30 to avoid invalidating the signal. Price has nevertheless trended down relentlessly since then, now testing 2452.00. That's "no-bias trending" and it requires eventually retracing 2497.50. The 2415.00 10:15 print is often retraced, too. Meanwhile, this afternoon's 2466.00 bias-down signal avoided triggering at 1:20 to also trigger no-bias. But breaking under it decisively through 1:30 invalidated the no-bias. There's no requirement to retrace this afternoon's bias-down signal, except by implication of the requirement to retest 2497.50. Now this afternoon's 2450.50 bias-down target is being tested, despite not being required. Lower lows would target 2448.00 and 2443.00. I can't dismiss the potential for trending down much deeper, but the pullback from Tuesday's high hasn't yet resumed. Back above 2466.00 and 2470.50 would start to signal that sellers are down. Bouncing before the bias environment begins lapsing at 2:30 could develop into a short-squeeze.

Contrarians had no reason to be bearish ahead of Friday's Employment Situation report. Thursday afternoon's rally up to 2525.00 was contained by its morning rally, so its optimism wasn't excessive. An overnight dip's recovery back up to 2527.00 also stopped short of being excessive optimism. Just to avoid confusion, a little pessimism was introduced by quickly sliding 31 points to greet Friday's Employment Situation report at 2495.50. The historic number deserved its obligatory blip-down to 2486.00. Recovering immediately eventually probed a new fresh high up to 2529.50 post-open. But the opening 15 minutes of volatility only consolidated, and then only broke lower. Trending down to 2449.00 through the afternoon bias environment ignored two no-bias signals. The morning's 2497.50 bias-down signal still requires being retraced for having broken prematurely. The afternoon's 2466.00 bias-down signal was recovered up to 2488.00 during the last 60-90 minutes, even before a Trump comment triggered a last-minute surge. Their intraday productivity doesn't qualify sellers as strong-handed. But for the open's shallow, brief fresh high, Friday was otherwise an inside day contained within Thursday's range. And Friday is already the least predictive day of the week. Friday was actually the third consecutive day to only overlap the same range while absorbing not a barrage, but at least a salvo of "bad" news. Suddenly finding a catalyst that justifies retesting recent lows would be unlikely, suspicious, and likely to hold. First probing fresh recovery highs would be more vulnerable to another downdraft. We'll describe each path's detail, and discuss their triggers and targets, at this weekend's Saturday Review. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. JOIN US AT 9:30 ET FOR THIS WEEKEND'S SATURDAY REVIEW.

MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2501.00 2491.00 ...would target 2518.00 2508.00 Bias-down: under 2481.00 2471.00 ...would target 2468.00 2458.00 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.