Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Tuesday night's probe under the intraday low down to 2621.00 was recovered to gap up Wednesday in positive territory at 2678.00. A post-open dip to 2653.50 was also recovered to trend up through the balance of the session. Isolating the probe under intraday lows had created the minimum objective for retracing Tuesday's opening spike up to 2750.00. Tuesday's quasi-nonconfirmation of Tuesday's break was given a reprieve, suggesting at least an eventual third higher close is still outstanding. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Trending up for most of the day can be tiring. Wednesday's 2720.00-2751.00 position-squaring range contained choppy price action well past midnight. Breaking higher at Europe's opens quickly tested 2769.00. But its reversal began an hour later, and now fresh overnight lows are probing back into yesterday's noon hour range under 2715.00. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Wednesday afternoon buyers gained traction for their effort, suggesting Thursday morning would trend up -- the same setup as Tuesday, albeit inverse, whose sellers were NOT rewarded Wednesday morning. Last night's fresh recovery high doesn't require intraday, but it's likely if sellers don't retake control this morning. And afternoon trending is difficult to generate into 3-day weekends. Uptrending at all would be difficult if the reaction down from last night's high can't hold the bias-down signal's support, which is now being tested -- perhaps only posturing defensively ahead of Jobless Claims. Resuming the rally would next target the recovery's 2825.00-2827.00 objective. The alternative to rallying today isn't necessarily to trend down. Even then, trending down sharply wouldn't necessarily derail the recovery. But a bearish Globex-flip setup is forming (described in the Market Tour recording) that might be triggered at the open. And confidence in the recovery probably depends upon there being no delay in exploiting the reprieve it got from yesterday's rally. First Trade... (9:45 preliminary indications for the 10:15 Bias parameters)

Exiting the open above 2743.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2727.25 bias-down signal. Exiting the open under 2717.75 would be likely to trigger the 2727.25 bias-down signal.. Exiting the open under 2750.50 would unlikely to trigger the 2758.50 bias-up signal.

Defensive posturing rewarded. The 2769.00 overnight high's reaction extended almost until Jobless Claims. The rubber band was stretched only deeper down to 2701.00 to already discount its negative news. The favorable reaction was, shall we say, enhanced by news of the Fed raising its heavy hand another $2.3 trillion. Defensive posturing and getting past the Claims news was all we needed to anticipate resuming the rally this morning. Yesterday afternoon's buyers had gained traction, and fresh overnight highs were only retraced but not rejected. Adding Fed fuel to the fire produced fresh high. The open's 2773.25 gap up is above all prior highs in the trend and would require eventually being retested from below. That's not protection against a significant detour down, and it doesn't require the rally to extend any higher. It only offers context to expect any reaction down to be temporary. Meanwhile, the rally is free to extend. It's next higher objective at 2825.00-2827.00 is still a likely attraction. Back under 2777.00 could find an air pocket down to 2747.00.

THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2809.00 2798.75 ...would target 2827.00 2817.00 Bias-down: under 2789.50 2779.75 ...would target 2746.25 2756.75 Signal status: LATE BIAS-UP . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Has complacency marginalized sellers? Today is essentially a Friday, being the week's last trading day. Two days of impending illiquidity, let alone three days, affects decisions and decision-making (not interchangeable). Trending is difficult to start on Fridays, and difficult to stop once started. A rule on Fridays is not to underestimate the likelihood for a fresh afternoon high to extend, and extend, and extend. Now this afternoon has triggered late bias-up. Exiting the bias environment above the noon hour's 2808.00 high would qualify. The rally's 2825.00-2827.00 objective could be met by simply gliding higher.

Crude oil is attempting the difficult task in reversing the market down. It's reacting to crude oil falling despite news of OPEC reaching a deal. But bias-up already triggered, and a fresh high at 2809.50 was already produced, so we assume the reaction is temporary.

Only ranging sideways through the close would still form a bullish gap-and-go setup. Having extended the gap up and then maintaining it through the close, higher highs become very likely within the next 2-3 days.

Currently, a dip to 2786.50 has bounced 11 points, trying to resume the rally. Back under 2784.50 would open the door to a deeper pullback, perhaps a reversal down that leaves "unfinished business" above through the weekend.

Wider and wider overnight swings probed fresh recovery highs up to 2770.00, before also falling to 2701.00 ahead of Thursday's Jobless Claims. Defensive posturing helped to react favorably to the report. The Fed's $2.3 trillion intervention probably helped a little, too. Surging to new highs at 2803.50 through the open was eventually probed by 6 points to 2809.50 into the afternoon bias environment. Potential for trending up further was derailed by a "sell the (unimpressive) news" reaction to an OPEC deal. Touching Wednesday's last-minute high at 2752.50 reacted up to 2787.00 which held through the close. "Unfinished business" was left outstanding at the 2817.00 afternoon bias-up target. The 51-point slide's effort to invalidate bias-up was too shallow and too late, so its eventual test is required. The rally's next higher objective at 2825.00-2827.00 remains outstanding, too. Only one bearish setup formed, by afternoon sellers gained traction by exiting the bias environment at 2:30 under the noon hour low and then entering the final hour even lower. Another bearish development was two separate bullish setups that almost formed or avoided becoming unfinished business. The morning formed the basis for a bullish Gap-and-Go setup that would have required closing higher, but the afternoon slide invalidated the setup. And the open's gap up required being filled from below, which is now done already. Nothing that disqualifies extending the recovery higher, or that requires probing lower. But not entrenching the rally as it approaches the likeliest bear market bounce peak candidate does suggest being acutely aware of a potential reversal.

Have a Happy Easter and Happy Passover weekend!

See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. THERE IS NO SATURDAY REVIEW THIS WEEKEND DUE TO THE HOLIDAY.

MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2806.50 2795.50 ...would target 2827.75 2816.75 Bias-down: under 2773.00 2762.00 ...would target 2754.00 2743.00 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.