Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Sunday night's open blipped-up to probe a fresh high at 2819.50. Then it collapsed 102 points to probe under Thursday's lows. After those first 15 minutes the range only narrowed, then eventually recovered to unchanged before Monday's open. Another collapse tested its room down to 2715.00 that keeps the uptrend intact. Afternoon ranging broke higher coming out of the proxy window at 3:20 and got up to 2765.00. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Monday's late recovery extended higher through midnight to eventually touch 2808.00, just 6 ticks under Thursday's intraday high. Backing-and-filling since then has attacked Thursday's 2780.00 close to within 2-3 ticks. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Monday's pattern was "ineffectual pessimism," spending all day in negative territory, but not downtrending and not closing under relevant support. Now last night's rally has stopped pessimistically short of Thursday's prior intraday high. All of which is potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective. The pessimism has been too shallow or brief to accomplish much refueling. But at least a temporary probe of fresh high remains likely -- and now also likely intraday, if not also thoroughly testing the rally's 2825.00-2827.00 objective. Extending higher isn't as likely, let alone maintaining a probe of fresh highs, unless quarterly earnings start coming in surprisingly well. First Trade... (9:45 preliminary indications for the 10:15 Bias parameters)

Exiting the open under 2769.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2775.75 bias-up signal. Exiting the open above 2782.00 would be likely to trigger the 2775.75 bias-up signal. Exiting the open above 2801.50 would be likely also to exceed the 2794.00 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal.

Bear market rally target met, too. Rallying post-open without hesitation was likely during this morning's Market Tour discussion. That was at its pullback lows, attacking Thursday's 2780.00 close as support. Then the overnight rally extended up to 2813.00. Having stretched the rubber band, the open spiked down to 2796.00. Recovering 2803.50 through the first 3 minutes began signaling the trend remained up. In fact, it quickly recovered a fresh high, and has extended to test 2836.00. The bear market rally's 2825.00-2827.00 target is now met. It is not resistance that is any likelier to inflect down. It is a landmark that if recovered through the close would make the 2930.00-2934.00 target likely. Closing any lower would start to suggest the rally is done. So, now we look for clues as to which.

One momentum clue already available is that the 2828.50 high as of 10:15 was not exceeded at 10:30. Not for lack of trying, having probed above it almost 8 points in the interim. But neither was the 10:15 high rejected at 10:30, it was still being overlapped.

Another momentum clue is the most recent 2831.00 pullback limit is violated. The pullback has now extended down to 2818.00. And a sell signal has attracted reinforcements.

None of which indicates whether 2825.00-2827.00 will hold through the close. Or whether its reaction will be deep, limited only to intraday, or reverse the trend down. But the current situation is fluid, as much as at any other point in the recovery if not more so.

TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2831.75 2822.25 ...would target 2848.50 2839.00 Bias-down: under 2804.00 2794.50 ...would target 2788.25 2778.75 Signal status: LATE BIAS-UP . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

More to come? The morning's test of 2836.00 reacted back down through the 2807.50 open to attack 2798.00. The reaction ended when the bias environment came within view of lapsing. RSI's higher low helped to end the drop, and to launch its retracement. Today's legs so far have only overlapped Thursday's highs. Trending up through the noon hour has triggered a late bias-up above 2822.25. The 2839.00 bias-up target is in-play. Already this morning's high is now being retested. Extending any higher would next target 2854.00. Meanwhile, the pattern remains vulnerable to another downdraft. And closing above or below 2825.00-2827.00 would itself suggest whether the bear market rally is extending, or peaking.

A premise to the rally peaking has been its potential for at least defensive posturing ahead of the quarterly earnings. The onslaught gets underway tomorrow. Banks that reported today (e.g. JPM, WFC) have reversed opening blips-up back down into negative territory. That excessive optimism should be "canaries in the coal mine," yet the market has returned to this morning's highs. I'll be looking for 2854.00 or even 2930.00-2934.00 if 2825.00-2827.00 hasn't held today through the close.

Monday's "ineffectual pessimism" was potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective. Sunday night's momentary attack on the bear market rally's 2825.00-2827.00 target remained likely to be thoroughly tested intraday. Trending up Monday night from 2753.00 and gapping up to 2807.50 quickly reached 2836.00, which the balance of the morning retraced down to 2798.00. Which the balance of the session recovered to fresh highs at 2846.00. Closing above 2825.00-2827.00 now puts into play the rally's next higher objective at 2930.00-2934.00. Closing back under 2825.00-2827.00 Wednesday would fail to confirm Tuesday's bullish signal. That wouldn't necessarily be bearish, not unless a reversal down were sudden, steep, and substantial. Actually, sudden isn't necessary, except for rejecting fresh highs. Otherwise, a steep and substantial drop would be appropriate for rejecting Tuesday's close above 2825.00-2827.00. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2858.50 2849.00 ...would target 2871.50 2862.00 Bias-down: under 2832.75 2823.25 ...would target 2812.25 2802.75 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.