Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Monday's "ineffectual pessimism" had been potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective. Despite its swift rejection, Sunday night's momentary attack on the bear market rally's 2825.00-2827.00 target remained likely to be thoroughly tested intraday. In fact, trending up Monday night from 2753.00, and gapping up to 2807.50 quickly extended post-open to test 2836.00. The balance of the morning retraced the rally down to 2798.00, which the balance of the session recovered to fresh highs at 2846.00. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Late fresh session highs up to 2846.00 were vulnerable to becoming a short-squeeze, but avoided it through the close. And continued avoiding it through the Globex open, which began retracing back to the 2820.00 noon hour lows by midnight. Sideways ranging broke lower at Europe's open, which trended down sharply for two hours. The gap-to-gap retracement between Monday's close and Tuesday's open is now being probed, back under Thursday's prior highs. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Closing above 2825.00-2827.00 yesterday put into play the rally's next higher objective at 2930.00-2934.00. This is subject to confirmation of closing above it again today, and not necessarily any higher than yesterday. Confirmation differentiates from tests that actually held. This might explain yesterday overlapping 2825.00-2827.00 during four intraday timing windows without extending higher. Failing to attract reinforcements today would equate to having failed through yesterday's close. Already reacting down overnight, however deeply, doesn't yet reject yesterday's close until today's close. And if the bear market rally has ended, then it should end as bear market rallies do: reversing down suddenly, steeply, and substantially. Reversing down suddenly isn't even necessary, despite already gapping down sharply. Regardless, recovering to close today back above 2825.00-2827.00 could see 2930.00-2934.00 before expiration. First Trade... (9:45 preliminary indications for the 10:15 Bias parameters)

Exiting the open under 2817.75 would be likely at least to trigger the 2823.25 bias-down signal. Exiting the open under 2798.25 would be likely to also exceed the 2802.75 bias-down target and renew the bias-down signal.

Bearish setups all around. Relentless overnight trending down to 2754.50 had reacted up through the open to attack 2782.00. Exiting the opening 15 minutes of volatility back under the 2773.00 opening print invalidated the attempt by counter-trend sponsorship to retake control. The setup didn't reinforce the overnight trend, but its traction remains intact through the morning. Eventually breaking lower by 10:30 was maintained, and now 2751.00 is being attacked. Extending any lower would next target 2740.00-2742.00. That's back into Monday's range, which had held 2715.00 to avoid already ending the bear market rally, and there's no bullish reason to repeat that test. We're also monitoring for a session-long decline, having rejected yesterday's closing uptrend. One timing window is allowed not to probe its immediately prior timing window's low. The slope and depth are not relevant, but can be steep and deep anyway. Back above 2777.00 would signal that a bigger bounce is underway, whether to recover 2825.00-2827.00 or just to refuel sellers at 2786.00 or 2797.00.

WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2782.50 2773.00 ...would target 2795.50 2786.00 Bias-down: under 2756.75 2747.25 ...would target 2743.25 2733.75 Signal status: BIAS-UP . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Looking for sellers? This morning's 2751.25 low held through noon, only being attacked within several points. The bias-down environment lapsing has tried to shift the paradigm. Trending up through the noon hour triggered the 2773.00 bias-up signal. Its 2786.00 bias-up target was quickly met to within 6 ticks.

6 ticks is close enough to excuse the target from becoming "unfinished business" if left outstanding. And it might be left outstanding. Reacting down retested the 2773.00 bias-up signal at 1:30. And now it is being probed down to 2768.00.

That's like no-bias trending, and it requires being retraced to at least the 2773.00 bias-up signal through the bias environment exit. Often also retraced is the 1:20 print when bias-up was being triggered, which was 2782.50.

Back above 2773.75 would start to signal a recovery underway, potentially to 2782.50 or 2786.00 or higher. There's room up to 2797.00 before starting to threaten also recovering 2825.00-2827.00.

Trending down sharply Tuesday night seemed to fulfill one of the most common characteristics of bear market rallies: that they end abruptly and obviously. Intraday testing of the likely 2825.00-2827.00 bear rally target had overlapped it throughout the day. But instead of a second consecutive close's confirmation above the target, Wednesday morning extended down. The afternoon's bias-up fulfilled its target, which ultimately held as resistance. The morning's post-open probe down to 2751.00 and afternoon reaction up to 2793.00 ended the session overlapping the 2773.00 opening print. Similar opening and closing levels reflect inertia. Trending Thursday morning all but requires gapping beyond either end of Wednesday's 2751.00-2793.00 post-open range. Even that must be maintained and preferably extended through the open to make trending any more reliable. In addition to momentum, no unfinished business was left outstanding. Buyers gained traction through the afternoon's bias environment exit and final hour entry, but never left negative territory to trigger the setup. Gapping up Thursday above Wednesday's intraday high and preferably above 2797.00 would be credible for trending up through the morning. The pattern leaves no particular early sell setup. Only that there is no bullish reason for revisiting Monday's test of 2715.00. Its retest would likely break lower, confirmed under 2698.00, to resume the decline. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2797.50 2788.00 ...would target 2816.00 2806.50 Bias-down: under 2771.00 2761.50 ...would target 2758.00 2748.50 Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BOTH BIAS SIGNALS . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.