Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) A pair of hopeful news items after after Thursday's close triggered a post-close surge and a shar gap up to 2863.00 at the Globex open. Extending higher immediately peaked immediately at 2885.00. Hope sprang an early leak. Overnight action ranged sideways and then flat-to-lower on the way to Friday's 2850.25 open. The morning bias environment extended down to 2821.00. Ranging sideways through the afternoon bias environment exit suddenly resolved up. Friday's last half-hour recovered the 2854.00 open on the way up to attacking 2873.00. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Wide, choppy ranging has resolved down. Collapsing crude oil triggered a gap down Sunday night that quickly extended down 30 points. The 2842.00 bias-down target's support launched a complete to test Friday's high up to 2875.50. Collapsing 28 points was recovered almost entirely by midnight. The highs held again, this time more so. Sliding back down to the open's low through Europe's opens has broken sharply lower to touch Friday morning's 2821.00 low. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Tuesday's 2846.00 high became the rally's most relevant landmark for testing the bear market rally's 2825.00-2827.00 likely target. Closing above it Friday now requires closing above it again today to confirm the next likely target is in-play at 2930.00-2934.00. Closing back under 2825.00-2827.00 would take 2930.00-2934.00 off the table again, either to resume the bear market, or for closing back above Friday's high to once again target 2930.00-2934.00. Like Tuesday, Friday's signal was suspicious, but for a different reason. Rather than fluctuate all day around the relevant level, Friday waited so long to finally probe above it. Opening under 2846.00 today would suggest Friday's late buyers are being rejected, but holding an opening test of 2825.00-2827.00 would instead suggest overnight sellers had already compensated. The latter would reinforce the bullish WedEX setup that already suggests this morning will trend up regardless of gapping down. And trending up post-open from any level could indicate a disconnect from Crude Oil collapse, if not also suggest that Crude Oil is finally capitulating into a low. First Trade... (9:45 preliminary indications for the 10:15 Bias parameters)

Exiting the open under 2833.75 would also exceed the 2842.00 bias-down target to renew the bias-down signal.

Sellers lose two-of-three opportunities. Market Tour described the likelihood for extending down pre-open to 2811.00, which was tested down to 2808.00. And for its reaction to launch a recovery. Its test reacted up, but waited for the open before reversing up substantially to 2839.00. Albeit still well into negative territory. This is clearly a bias-down environment. Not only bias-down, but bias-down renewed, for also having exceeded the 2842.00 bias-down target at 10:15. That's this morning's only bearish element. Two other elements are bullish.

BULLISH WEDEX: This setup already indicated on Friday that this morning would trend up, regardless of gapping down. Trending up since its opening print through both 9:45 and 10:15 isn't contradictory, so I continue giving the setup's influence a benefit of the doubt.

2825.00-2827.00: It's a landmark, not an inflection point. And probing under it was cleanly recovered through 10:15. It was essentially recovered through 9:45. It might be probed again, but recovering a probe under 2825.00-2827.00 is likelier first to be rewarded.

Bouncing further this morning has room up to the 2853.50 bias-down signal as resistance, until the bias-down environment starts lapsing. The bounce could still resolve down, before then OR after, but I'm still giving buyers a benefit of the doubt.

MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2876.50 2867.00 ...would target 2890.00 2880.50 Bias-down: under 2852.50 2843.00 ...would target 2836.50 2827.00 Signal status: noN-BIAS, STILL TESTING BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Morning's big recovery still in negative territory. The 2808.00 overnight low had recovered to open at 2823.00. Regardless of gapping down 41 points from Friday's close, this morning was likely to be influenced by a bullish WedEX. So the pre-open bounce extended relentlessly up to 2860.00 into the noon hour. No particular resolution was required. Backing-and-filling since then has tested this afternoon's 2843.00 bias-down signal down to 2838.50. Still testing the bias-down signal at both 1:20 and 1:30 has triggered noN-bias -- the bias-down target is no in-play, and the bias-down signal need not hold as support. But the bias-down signal often does hold as support during a noN-bias window. And reacting up is now testing 2849.00. Nothing prevents extending higher (or resolving down), although exiting the bias environment not yet recovering positive territory would be difficult to attract reinforcements today.

For the second time in a week, closing above the bear market rally's likely 2825.00-2827.00 target has reversed down immediately. And like Wednesday, Monday only probed the prior session's low. Initially probing above 2875.00 had reversed overnight to probe Friday's 2821.00 low down to 2808.00. Gapping down didn't invalidate last week's bullish WedEX signal, which had already dictated Monday morning would trend up throughout. Its 2861.00 peak was still in negative territory, facing the Crude Oil collapse's headwinds. The balance of the session trended down to 2804.00 through the close.

There is a bullish case. It assumes that Monday afternoon's slide being relatively impressively for holding the overnight lows. Crude Oil collapsed from just the May contract's last-minute longs awaiting the mythical bounce, forced into capitulation. That's done, and any localized consequences among funds and firms will have been discounted before noon Tuesday. Potential up to 2930.00-2934.00 could be met in a relief rally, perhaps triggered by favorable NFLX earnings.

There is a bearish case, too. It's probably triggered by revelations of systemic problems from Crude's collapse. Or, the quarterly earnings onslaught starts including more negative surprises. Whatever its trigger, closing Monday again back under 2825.00-2827.00 is warning that the air is thin up here. Perhaps Monday's dumped ballast will allow a quick defiant surge to 2930.00-2934.00 first. Whether from here or higher, the bearish case is confirmed when price suddenly begins slide, sharply, and substantially.

Closing under 2818.00 Monday would have confirmed 2825.00-2827.00 was rejected. But Monday's close was still overlapping 2818.00. Sellers did everything they could to retake control, without actually retaking control. Closing almost any lower could already be closing sharply lower. So, Tuesday's price action should be very wide-ranging, much more so than Monday's range. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2834.50 2825.00 ...would target 2850.50 2841.00 Bias-down: under 2808.00 2798.50 ...would target 2783.25 2773.75 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.