Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Tuesday's close under last Wed-Thu 2751.00-2755.00 lows had signaled a trend change. Closing under it Wednesday would have confirmed. That didn't happen. Quite the opposite, gapping open back within last Wed-Thu range at 2781.00 trended up into the session's final minutes. Closing above last Wed-Thu 2795.00-2798.00 highs would have been almost bullish. That didn't happen, either. A blip-up to 2808.00 fulfilled a target as the 3:37-3:52 position-squaring window was lapsing. But its reaction plunged 26 points to 2782.00. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Wednesday's late plunge extended down to 2773.00 before bouncing. Choppy action eventually attacked yesterday's late high into Europe's opens. That was quickly reversed to attack overnight lows down to 2777.00. Like all of the other swings preceding it, price has reversed back to yesterday's 2789.00 close. The overnight range loosely qualifies as ranging sideways. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Gapping open today back under 2751.00-2755.00 would serve by proxy as yesterday's close, and qualify as confirmation to Tuesday's trend change signal. Otherwise, today must close under Tuesday's 2717.00-2718.00 lows to trigger a new trend reversal signal, then requiring its own confirmation on tomorrow. Meanwhile, the door is open today to extending yesterday's rally. Yesterday afternoon buyers gained traction by exiting the bias environment above the noon hour high and entering the noon hour higher, so not trending down through the open would likely trend up through the morning. Recovering 2725.00-2727.00 would target fresh highs, if not also 2930.00-2934.00. First Trade... (9:45 preliminary indications for the 10:15 Bias parameters)

Exiting the open under 2790.75 would be unlikely to trigger the 2798.00 bias-up signal. Exiting the open above 2784.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2777.00 bias-down signal.

Renewed bias-up target exceeded, too. Yesterday afternoon's buyers had gained traction, making this morning likely to trend up. Touching the 2808.00 target and plunging into the close were irrelevant. Nothing retroactively changes whether the afternoon bias environment exit and final hour entry had exceeded their prior timing window. Today's open could have had that effect by proxy, but not already trending down by 9:45 would only reinforce the bullish expectation. The open's eventual surge through its 2805.25 buy signal quickly extended to near-term resistance at 2819.25. Its correction down to 2807.75 support eventually resolved up. Exceeding the 2811.00 bias-up target through 10:15 renewed the bias-up signal, and its 2826.00 renewed bias-up target was soon met. Meanwhile, it's still the bias environment, and yesterday afternoon's bullish influence remains intact. The rally has extended up to 2836.75, testing 2835.50 resistance. Its overbought RSIs suggest a pullback will be recovered if only to retest the high up to 2837.50-2839.00. Regardless, the bullish influence lapses with the bias environment. Its test of various resistance, targets, and "higher prior lows" will need to attract reinforcements to avoid at least a corrective dip, if not a reversal.

THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2844.00 2835.50 ...would target 2859.00 2850.50 Bias-down: under 2823.75 2812.25 ...would target 2809.00 2800.50 Signal status: LATE BIAS-DOWN . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Headline reaction cuts short the bounce. This morning's bullish influence had attacked 2837.00. Already recovering at noon from a corrective dip down to 2815.50, the bounce was testing 2829.00 when a COVID headline triggered a 3-minute 41-point plunge down to 2786.00. Correcting or reversing a headline reaction is likely. Its 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} correction could have been delayed but it was immediate. Now its 2817.50 bounce has reversed back down to attack the plunge's low, probably targeting 2784.25. Then what. Overbought RSIs at this morning's high require its eventual retest. It can remain outstanding indefinitely if the decline wants to resume. Natural support at yesterday's 2789.00 close is trying to prevent it, but filled gaps can't hold an indefinite number of tests and retests. Fresh lows under 2784.25 could find an air pocket down to 2760.50, which is the 38.2{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} gap-to-gap retracement from Tuesday's close. Otherwise, resuming the rally today from whatever level would target 2839.00, and still not require resuming the bear market rally, or prevent resuming its rejection from earlier this week.

Thursday's gap up to 2802.00 didn't reverse down through the first 15 minutes of volatility. This confirmed that Wednesday afternoon's bullish traction would influence the morning bias environment, which was soon attacking 2837.00. And it might have extended higher, but its corrective dip had retraced precisely 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} -- enough to qualify as a correction, without yet confirming the uptrend had resumed. So, a negative headline triggered a plunge to 2786.00. Its 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} retracement up to 2817.50 returned to the plunge's low, as did the next bounce, drifting lower through the close to 2779.00. Positive territory held until the final minutes, but its natural support was thoroughly chipped away. Not already breaking lower overnight or through Friday's open should become attracted back up to overbought RSIs at the morning's high. Nothing requires resuming the Mon-Tue decline, and nothing requires rejecting it. The week's last session is being greeted at almost a standing stop, in the middle of a wide range. If not already trending through the open, the trending before the weekend might require another headline. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2811.00 2802.50 ...would target 2826.25 2817.75 Bias-down: under 2785.50 2777.00 ...would target 2769.00 2760.50 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.