Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Friday afternoon's weak-handed rally up to 2835.00 extended higher Sunday night with little difficulty. Its only reaction down was early, shallow, and brief. And it resolved higher through midnight to attack prior intraday highs to within 1 point at 2865.00. Any post-open dip was likely to be shallow, and likely to resume the rally. Touching the shallowest pullback potential at 2843.75 reacted up through the position-squaring window's 2881.25 high. A late reversal down still ended at 2869.00 a new high close. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Yesterday late reversal down extended lower into midnight at 2851.00. Firming into Europe's opens was rewarded by soon probing yesterday's high to almost 2883.00. A consolidation there resolved up sharply through the 2885.00 prior overnight high to 2908.00. Crude Oil, meanwhile, has fallen back and a couple of high-profile earnings (CAT, MMM) are missing/warning. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Yesterday filled the gap back up to last Friday's 2864.50 close, and now the prior night's 2885.00 high is being probed up to 2908.00. Isolating the probe is probably the only obstacle to also testing the 2930.00-2934.00 bear market rally's next target. Overnight isolation seems difficult with fresh highs still being probed this near the open. But gapping up would still be vulnerable to reversing down and isolating the probe to the morning. Anyway, the latter's gap up above all prior highs in a trend would require being filled from below -- inhibiting the start of a downleg, but not a deal killer. First Trade... (9:45 preliminary indications for the 10:15 Bias parameters)

Exiting the open above 2895.50 would be likely also to exceed the 2891.00 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open above 2884.25 would be likely at least to trigger the 2878.00 bias-up signal. Exiting the open under 2872.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Bias-up ignored. Extending higher to 2913.50 pre-open had dipped to open at 2908.50. That is above all prior highs in a multi-session trend, so it requires being filled from below. Not arbitrarily, but sometime after a pullback has touched a prior session's range -- i.e. at or under yesterday's 2881.00 high. That is now done.

That's done, because the open dipped and extended back into yesterday's range at 2854.00. That requires retracing this morning's 2878.00 bias-up signal, for having probed under it during a bias-up environment. Often the 2895.00 10:15 print will be retraced, too.

Back above 2866.00 is now trying to launch a recovery. There's plenty of obstacles to reaching the higher attractions. The gap back UP to yesterday's 2869.00 close is resistance (now being tested), as is yesterday's 2881.00 high and the 2885.00 prior overnight high.

Another obstacle to recovery is the Isolation setup that I described during this morning's updates. Price action probing above yesterday's highs may be isolated upon exiting the bias environment at 11:30-noon. The higher attractions could become "unfinished business" while a deeper reaction down develops, even the bear market rally's end.

TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2885.25 2877.00 ...would target 2902.00 2893.50 Bias-down: under 2865.25 2857.00 ...would target 2851.25 2843.00 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

New recovery highs isolated. This morning's probe under its 2778.00 bias-up signal during its bias-up environment had required being retraced. Reacting up from the morning's 2854.00 low had attacked only 2776.00, but a bigger bounce is now within 1 tick. That bigger bounce is testing this afternoon's 2877.00 bias-up signal during a no-bias environment. Probing it could test yesterday's 2881.00 highs as noise, perhaps higher. But the 2877.00 bias-up signal would require being retraced. Add its outstanding attraction to the 2908.50 open's gap up. Meanwhile, oversold RSIs at the low is unfinished business, and require retesting 2854.00. Back under 2866.00 would start to signal at least an attack on this afternoon's 2857.00 bias-down signal. Probing it would likely retest 2854.00, too. Breaking lower could extend. All of which is developing after this morning's gap up was isolated -- exiting the morning's bias environment back under yesterday's highs. This afternoon is likely to trend down. The timing is sub-optimal to a morning setup, and so far hasn't prevented a bigger bounce, but a recovery is still undermined and the burden of proof is on buyers to reinstate any upside momentum.

Initially dipping overnight to 2851.00 didn't prevent recovering back up to Monday's 2881.00 high. And then to a new recovery high at 2913.50. The 2908.50 open trended back down to 2854.00 taking RSIs oversold. Exiting the bias environment under 2881.00 isolated the gap up. The bearish isolation didn't prevent bouncing back up to 2881.00 at the bias environment exit, but the balance of the session slid to 2852.00. The 2908.50 open's gap up above all prior highs requires being filled. It is the only "unfinished business" above, other than the potential for extending up to 2930.00-2934.00. Nearby unfinished business below from Friday is at 2801.50 and 2777.00. Wednesday afternoon's FOMC policy statement and Fed Chair Q&A might inhibit volatility ahead of the events. Rejecting Tuesday's gap up may have been part of that sentiment, posturing defensively. Hunkering down deeper Wednesday wouldn't be surprising, but it wouldn't prevent reacting favorably on FOMC news, or prevent reacting unfavorably. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2874.25 2866.00 ...would target 2892.50 2884.25 Bias-down: under 2858.75 2850.50 ...would target 2844.25 2836.00 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.